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What others have been saying - the the short holder is also the seller then the sales are done and they are buying back in to close the short. Combine that the the rig coming for the onshore and offshore mobalising for Q3 and its a perfect storm.
Exactly. Im not an expert, but - if they are closing a CFD which they are short on, they have to buy. They might do this through the use of a limit order which, in absence of others buying, would theoretically keep the price low ..
I haven't posted before (but I am a shareholder) and Duncan is my neighbour! I just wanted to know where you get the 18.8m share volume from as my screen only shows 10m. Is it just delayed?
Those are buys...
This is now the highest volume since the 97 million trades on the 10th April when the deal with ENOG was announced. Interesting perhaps that the day before that announcement 17.3 million shares were traded. News tomorrow?
..... someone may be trying to close out a position...
Now up 2.2% at 8.82p on volume of 18.8 million. This is looking as if news is coming soon.
@Bridgedogg1,yeh apparently they completed drilling yesterday as saw on their board someone mention it. Lets hope its now on its way to Chariot🤞🤞🤞
Anither 7.5m trade...
Looks like SDX are done with the rig. Let the fun begin.
Clearly very large interests continue to accumulate and sell here. Maybe aiming to conclude their orders before news lands, and maybe Char is waiting for this as well?
The volume is certainly picking up at 10.6 million which is approaching double the volumes seen on Monday and Tuesday.
2 trades at c. ÂŁ750k GBP in the last hour.....
Agreed Surety. Let's hope Jimmy is right about the 1 TCF.
Duncan hardly even mentions the deeper prospect in his most recent webinar though. I would think if there was even an outside chance of a discovery of that size, it might have been mentioned. It's not like chariot to be overly cautious/pessimistic with their outlook.
Nice. A 4.7m & a 4m đź‘Ť
Nm
Cavendish (Was Cenkos) have c. 71p if Energean take the option of the extra 10% and fund, with their current guidance at 58p. Stifel and Peel Hunt are at the lower end, with the lowest target at 35p. Auctus are in the middle at 50p and SP Angel seem to be increasingly bullish about M&A on high risk exploration assets.
On the 18th March, Stifel then published a short note saying the Power business in a full divestment could be worth 10p. Clearly ambitious, but interesting against the relative backdrop of a c. 35p target..
Of particular interest though is that Auctus then published a note on the 10th April referred to as 'gearing up to drill' The note relates to Loukos and Anchois, with an emphasis on Chariot prioritising Gas. No surprises.... ;-)
It was this note that I found particularly interesting though in terms of the reference to Loukos. They are quoted as saying 'there is more value there than we originally thought due to the deeper plays.' They value Gaufrette at 6p for 10 BCF unrisked a further+2p for the deeper sands and 4p unrisked for the wider Dartois area at 12 BCF. This totals 12-13p with rounding.. for 22 BCF.
The point is that if Jimmy's view is right and there is significantly more in Loukos this should seriously rocket.
DYOR
This is the thing Ianfer.
In reality, Analysts are probably the most qualified to place a valuation on any business, and, if they’ve done their DD and homework correctly, should be able to value a business using industry standards, risk and asset value. Whether they are ultimately correct or not, depends on whether the company delivers on its objectives. What an analyst can’t do is control the market or decide who sells or buys shares.
What investors tend to do, is base their “I’d be happy with a a buy out at XXp per share” on the current share price. If we were valued correctly at the moment, I suspect nobody would be happy with a 30p offer. Just because we are massively under valued by the market, doesn’t mean the analysts are wrong.
I’d go as far as to say, that assuming all goes to plan over the next few months, Malcy will probably be closest with his guesstimate.
Whimax - as the sp has already hit 20p before various issues of further progress have occurred and the "analysts" (usually optimistic) are going for around 50p (Malcy's quid is a bit dreamy at the moment) I think 25-30p is a bit realistically on the low side based on what is known (and guessed!)
Are people just picking numbers out of hat here, or is this 25-30p actually based on any kind of calculation, either post On Shore and/or AE?
Thebold Haha an offer of 25-35p "would also not even get to SH knowledge" - I think it would. imo the BOD would not be able to keep it to themselves.
"Forget about a TO full stop" "they don’t care if SP is rock bottom" - it's pretty rock bottom now which is why imo there's a good chance of a bid. If the on-shore turns out to be worth more than 8pence a share I can't see those in the know with plenty of dosh just standing by without diving in seriously. They won't be whispering in the ears of A.P. and saying "can you keep a secret? I'd like to bid 30p for your Company but don't tell anyone else!"
IMO Forget about a TO full stop, the clues were already given , the board will NOT allow it , they want to ride this gravy train for many years to come , they already refuted at least one which was not even put to SH vote. … we could see an offer of 25 -35p put tomorrow and I suggest it would also not even get to SH knowledge. So with that, they don’t care if SP is rock bottom, they won’t entertain a TO and they get far more freebie shares , the lower the SP and the VWAP.
I doubt we’ll see a takeover here, in the short to medium term at least.
The share price in the 6 months preceding the Farm Out announcement was between 14p and 18p (roughly) and AP confirmed at the conference call, following the Farm Out, that the offer made for the company was dismissed out of hand and not high enough.
I’m assuming that offer was at least slightly higher (north of 25p) than the highest price of 18p during that period.
I doubt anyone would make an offer now, ahead of the 3 drills in the next 3-4 months, and I very much doubt AP would entertain one.
It is utterly bizarre that someone would hold a short position (if indeed they do) given the imminent drill news and the strategic review of power underway.... If Jimmy is even partly right on the 1TCF point at Gaufrette in the deeper reservoir, that's up to 10x the existing estimate for all of Loukos (100 BCF). That alone would rocket the price, you would think, or trigger a takeover. Auctus valued Loukos in their most recent note at ~14p per share based on the two wells .. Add Anchois Success, Power Divestment and the Green Hydrogen...
And yet even over the last two days there are some hefty ÂŁ80k, ÂŁ50k, etc trades.. and a potential short position
It's very odd!!!
DYOR
@batterseafish most of the shareholders who bought from 2017 till 2023 will be in loss or barely break even