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I've sold a chunk here because I don't like the lack of response to the recent move in gold, something doesn't seem right?
but I hope I'm wrong.
By the way, I consider this defending the company rather than defensiveness!
They repaid $2m of debt in one quarter if you look at the schedule and the actual rate of repayment is a defined formula.
I am not a fan of Au equivalent reporting either. I assume that you are making the same point on the AAZ board (I have previously) as they do exactly the same.
I do not believe that their transparency is great but I have certainly seen worse. Do I have reservations about the company? Of course, they are operating in a murky world!
I understand your defensiqveness, I really do. You are invested here. If you bought in at the lows, I really think you should consider taking profits now. How long can Martin afford to prop it up before he runs out of money, or friends? The numbers just don’t stack up. So they paid down $2m of debt or so. At this rate they need Kapan running for another 17 years to repay the debt.
Their reporting leaves much to be desired which means they are hiding problems
I don’t like this practice of reporting production in Au equivalent. That’s rubbish - give us full breakdown of metals and respective grades so we can assess resource dynamic. Give us full and transparent operating performance analysis, details of what exactly was settled by Poly debt to equity swap and why and at what cost.
They can play this game for maybe another 6-9 months, but at the end all will become evident...
Or maybe Martin has deeper pockets and more brain than I give him credit for. Look, I could be wrong, but this does feel and smell bad. So I’m staying away. Not shorting either given Martin’s waiver and low liquidity.
I take it that paying down the Kapan debt means nothing then? I think that it is better to consider what is known rather than to speculate about what is unknown but can I suggest that you ask them if you have concerns? But, of course you won't as that would interfere with your narrative.
Please do it! I am sure that holders will be happy to take your money.
Well, the answer where are the $10 million promised to arrive in April has come. They have gone with the wind.
The company does not tell us the real price Poly paid for the shares. They combined swapping the debt and settling "working capital adjustment". How much working capital adjustment -its a secret. No transparency whatsoever.
I am amazed at the NOMAD for allowing such misleading notes to be released. issuing shares but not telling the market at what price - that must be a first. It will end with tears and prison for some of the involved.
So to sum it up- the company has run out of money. the company does not tell us if Kapan is consuming or generating cash which is pretty important information (my guess - it's eating cash every day even before interest payment). The company is surviving by money from Martin at a ridiculously high-interest rate and by convincing friends and family to buy a few more convertibles to pay salaries. in case this is not clear every pound of the convertible is a pound and a few shillings off the shareholders. Lovely.
great short. Did I say that already?
Why on earth would Poly accept $5m worth of locked-in shares for its $10m worth of convertibles?! This, alongside with a recent note on Kapan performance, is what people should be considering. This looks to me a lot like a settlement of a post-acquisition dispute of some sort. There is something management are not telling here. Clearly Kapan is not proving to be such a great asset they thought it was. This tells me due diligence was rather poor, and/or Poly had hidden something important and this came to light now, and management were able to secure this settlement. I don’t see any other logic, for Poly that is, for this conversion into CGH shares. And cancellation of warrantees and indemnities proves my point - it is a settlement. This can only mean one thing - Kapan is a dud, barely worth the money that was paid for it, or worse.
Go for it! Always a good idea to short a gold miner in a gold bull market.
Does anybody know what is happening with the new money which they promised will come in May? It does not seem as if its forthcoming and Martin is lending money to the company at usury 14% plus commitment fees etc. etc. shall we say 20% p.a.?
They don't say if they are making or losing money in Kapan but it seems they are struggling - have they started running out of money that they need to withdraw the expensive money of the chairman?
With $6 million at yearend and expensive management + costs adding to $2-$3 per months how long before they run out of money? Surely Martin will put a little more but when the market will understand they cannot raise a penny?!
looks like a great short
Just read your message from about 2 weeks ago. Thanks for well-wishes.
I lost everything with Beaufort but ....got it all back. The whole thing was crazy and worrying but eventually the FSCS compensation scheme has returned everything to clients.
What are you pursuing with Hoodless Brennan? Are you hoping to claim duff advice given to you? Good luck.
Still waiting for a good bit of news here at the moment : Q2 Kapan production and possible Life of Mine news; Tulkubash more drilling results; '1 or 2 acquisitions this year' was muted about 8 months ago. A decent spike and I'd like to take about 10k shares off the table for personal reasons (skint)
Hi Pablo2 you are a true gent i cant remember im going back 8 years you was always chating on hear was it with Dibs ? he must of moved on but you are a true share holder and a believer if any one that needs to profit out of this company is you.
How is your claim getting on i have a good chance against Hoodlass Brennean so i am hoping to hear some news soon
good luck
That’s what I say, can’t be anything bad about putting money where your mouth is. Having the BoD with massive skin in the game means this share is one of the safest on Aim imo.
About time we heard the true Q2 figures from Kapan and if they are going to do ‘1 or 2’ acquisitions this year, they must be well down the road.
Brilliant share, brilliant BoD, how many Aim shares are people in profit in? This must be one of them for lth’s surely. Been plenty of opportunities to average down, my first purchase was at 64p !
History doesn't suggest that this is the case. Both Labro and AV have bought during periods where resource upgrades and the Kapan takeover were being arranged so I would expect these types of activities to continue. The share price performance remains positive during Labro's buying periods but this is dependent upon existing shareholders. I find it fascinating that some current shareholders, as indicated by the transactions, see the announcement of a significant buy programme as a sell signal!
Oh crap. That RNS means radio silence until 8th October then!
And where are they going to find 4mill shares to buy, except from frustrated PI’s.
Still holding.......just!
DT
a bit of buying POG still above $1400 a bit of good news i hope soon to bring it back above 30p
Yes much of Aim is dead atm, but this has had no response to the recent spike in pog, it seems to move independently with the exception of the select few everything is a waiting game ( patience is the greatest virtue,
Blimey, I can't read, guidance is 65k oz for 2019 you're right
So that's a 27.5% increase on 2018 at Kapan
Gold price going up nicely. Just broke $1420 / oz. All helping the cause.
Interesting that there really is no buying interest here at the moment. Perhaps an update on Kapan will stimulate something as it will be absolute proof of a producing asset.
Better than that I believe:
"we anticipate group production of approximately 65 koz of gold equivalent in 2019".
Impressed that they're guiding a 20% increase in year-on-year Kapan production for 2019 - up to 61k oz of gold.
Otherwise, although, all lovey-dovey, not much in the Results
Not doing so well, needs to attract and incentivise companies like Chaarat I'd say :
https://www.timesca.com/index.php/news/26-opinion-head/21310-kyrgyzstan-tax-revenues-declining-unemployment-and-poverty-persist
There are two arguments here. Firstly that the company executives are not capable of delivering and secondly that the assets are inappropriately valued. I confess I disagree with you on both.
I suspect that the key characters here do not operate in a manner that I would but, then again, I also suspect that they understand the environment far better than I do and can operate more effectively as a result.
I do know gold miners having invested in them for 20 years or more and I have learnt over the years to identify what I believe to be a decent deposit. I believe that Chaarat's Kyrgyzstan assets have the potential to be world class. As I have agreed, they are not there yet but the FS is a good start and you would have to be very closed minded not to believe that there was a lot more potential. I also believe that Kapan is a decent operation as well and that Chaarat got a pretty good deal when you compare it to similar scale assets.
Does this mean that I am going to bet the earth on this? No, I'm not. It is an emerging gold company in the FSU which is not the place I want to put all of my eggs. But I do think that it is worthy of an investment and if it goes down the pan then so be it but on the face of it our Chairman would lose a great deal in those circumstances unless you could outline a scenario where this is not the case.
Daisan, let me assure you I have only one account registered here, if you are indeed implying that down-to-earth and I are the same person. I have better things to do than to support my views here that way. (I am glad however that I am not alone in my opinion about CGH). Anywya, I said all I had to say about CGH, for now at least... Without giving much away I can only add that I personally had a pleasure of meeting some of the "top class management" who run CGH and observing their operating style and as a result I am less optimistic about their abilities than you are. I genuinely wish to be proven wrong about the prospects of this company, for all the LTH's sake, but I remain in my belief that this stock is overpriced.
Really looking forward to reading the annual report - anyone knows when it will be published? It's almost end of June!
GLA