The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/Technologies_DG_Renewables/Why-fuel-cells-may-finally-make-grid-divorce-a-reality-5963.html#.Ug4cuJLrz_s Why fuel cells may finally make grid divorce a reality Quick Take: A long-time reader wrote in to give me a heads up on the very real progress being made on fuel cell-powered micro combined heat and power (micro-CHP). Companies such as Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited, Hexis Technology and Baxi are making small devices that create power plus hot water. He thinks we're close to the day when homes and small businesses can combine micro-CHP with solar PV with energy storage and be off the grid forever. What say you? Use the Talk Back form at the bottom to share your view. - By Jesse Berst Sales of fuel cell micro-CHP have overtaken those of conventional micro-CHP worldwide. The strongest sales are in Japan. However, one emerging application in the UK may be applicable around the world. Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited (CFCL) is targeting the market for social housing, shared accommodation, schools and small businesses for its BlueGen 1.5 kW solid oxide fuel cell. The economics make the most sense when customers can use all of the electricity produced behind the meter – therefore, the company is targeting buildings where the electrical demand is higher than that found in a single occupancy dwellings. The company has even made arrangements with financing companies to install units in apartment buildings for free. Payments combine selling excess electricity back to the grid in return for the United Kingdom's favorable feed-in tariff.
http://www.climateenergy.org.uk/climate-energy-news CFCL gives CPD event in UK. "Climate Energy Ltd @ClimateEnergyUK Big thanks to @BlueGenUK for conducting their #fuel cell CPD yesterday to Housing Associations, Councils and Consultants at our office" Cheers DYOR
Ramping by mapreader again. "6 million pounds in cash at bank." Spoken by him as if it is enough to last years, yet he knows as well as me and everyone else that £6m will only last CFU for 4 months and 3 weeks at the burn rate of the past quarter year. If CFU cannot raise any new cash in the next 4 months it will no longer be a going concern and would have to go into administration. I believe CFU will get another £5m added to the loan, but what if they can't, what if those doing the lending have already decided that the assets and IP of CFU is only worth a £5m loan?
Stick to AFC eh! seems you dislike the competition, must worry you SOFC vs Alkaline fuel cells it seems
Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited - Cashflow report for the June quarter 2-August-2013 http://www.brrmedia.com/event/112408/bob-kennett-chief-executive-officer Sounds like they are proceeding well, R&D new processes etc. Recruiting Sales teams in Germany and UK. Concentrating on SME'd direct and indirect network sales. Dealing with 20 Organisations in Germany alone. Capacity in excess of requirements for current year. Will double capacity shortly. 6 million pounds in cash at bank. Cheers DYOR
http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/news-events/news-archive/2013/july/new-analyst-view-micro-chp-fuel-cells-for-businesses,-schools-and-shared-accommodation
http://www.hydrogenfuelnews.com/cfcl-to-offer-fuel-cells-for-free-in-the-uk/8512938/ Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited launches ambitious new campaign Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited (CFCL), a developer of solid oxide fuel cells, has announced an ambitious new campaign to help promote the adoption of fuel cell energy systems. Hydrogen fuel cells are typically the most popular type of fuel cell that consumers are aware of, but fuel cells come in a variety of forms that cater to different purposes. Solid oxide fuel cells, for instance, are usually larger fuel cell systems that are widely used throughout the industrial sector. These same fuel cells can be scaled down, however, to be used for residential energy purposes. Campaign seeks to boost adoption of clean technology CFCL has launched a campaign through which it is offering fuel cells for free. The fuel cells that the company is offering are part of its BlueGen line, which are designed to provide electrical power to homes and small businesses. The campaign is currently restricted to the United Kingdom and only available to those that meet the company’s application guidelines. CFCL expects that housing developments and similar such residential projects will be the primary recipients of its fuel cells.Initiative removes upfront cost of expensive energy systems Fuel cells have become notorious for how expensive they are. The costs associated with purchasing and installing these energy systems makes them extremely exclusive and beyond the reach of most consumers. CFCL believes that it can generate more hype around fuel cells and highlight the benefits of these energy systems by simply offering them for free. Doing so eliminates the prohibitive upfront costs of these energy systems and makes them significantly more available to a wider range of consumers. UK shows strong support for fuel cell technology The United Kingdom is quickly establishing itself as a haven for the fuel cell industry. The country recently increased the feed-in tariff it has concerning fuel cells and their research and development. The country has a particular interest in hydrogen fuel cells because of how these energy systems are being used by the transportation sector. The UK has plans to establish itself as a leader in the hydrogen transportation space.
http://www.cospp.com/articles/2013/07/bluegen-micro-chp-set-to-target-fuel-poverty-in-uk.html BlueGEN micro-CHP to target fuel poverty in UK 22/07/2013 By Dr. Heather Johnstone Chief Editor Ceramic Fuels Cells Ltd (CFCL) (ASX:CFU) has launched a new initiative called ‘free BlueGEN’, which will see its fuel cell micro-CHP systems installed for free in the UK. The initiative involves CFCL working with funders, most likely an energy services company (ESCO), who will fully finance the installation of the BlueGEN unit. The ESCO will then recoup the CAPEX via the UK’s feed-in tariffs. CFCL estimates that on average the funder’s payback period will be in the region of seven years. The major benefit of the scheme is that the end user only pays for the running costs, and with a guarantee of at least a 10% discount on the cheapest local standard retail tariff lower energy bills. According to government estimates, there are 3.5m households in the UK currently living in fuel poverty. Although that figure is set to drop to 2.5m under a new definition to be introduced by the Department of Energy and Climate Change next month. The company’s initial target markets are the social housing sector, where fuel poverty is a major issue, as well as schools and small-to-medium sized enterprises, such as shops, restaurants and pubs, care homes, health centres and dental surgeries. Currently, CFCL has 50 BlueGEN units installed in the UK, with more than 200 worldwide (Germany is its biggest market with 100 installed units to-date). Paddy Thompson, CFCL’s general manager of Business Development, confirmed that that company also has approximately 400 units on back order. BlueGEN has solid oxide fuel cell technology at its core (pictured), and under normal operation it has a continuous electrical output of 1.5 kWel and a thermal output of 0.6 kWth, generating up to 13,000 kWh of electricity a year. BlueGEN was launched in 2010 and is recognised as one of the world’s most efficient small-scale generators – up to 60% delivered electrical efficiency, with a total efficiency of 85%. You can register your interest in the ‘free BlueGEN’ initiative here: http://bluegen.info/freebluegen For more Cogeneration/CHP news. For more Equipment & Technology news.
http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/news-events/news-archive/2013/july/cfcl-launch-free-fuel-cells-in-the-uk CFCL Launch Free Fuel Cells in UK Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) developer Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited (CFCL) held a media event on Friday 19th July where it introduced a new financing scheme for its BlueGen fuel cell system. Suitable applicants in the UK can now receive a free BlueGen fuel cell micro combined heat and power (micro-CHP) unit, instantly saving them money on their utility bills with no capital costs up front. CFCL is targeting social housing schemes with its free BlueGen campaign where one or more of its 1.5 kW SOFC systems can provide baseload power and heating to schools, businesses or apartment blocks. Certain criteria must be met in order to qualify for this scheme and more information can be found on the BlueGen website. In the UK, the feed-in-tariff pertaining to fuel cell cogeneration was increased in March 2013, making the financial case for installation more attractive. Customers installing the free BlueGen units must commit to a ten year contract, after which ownership of the fuel cell passes from the finance company to the customer; BlueGen fuel cell systems have a quoted lifespan of fifteen years. SOURCE: CFCL MEDIA EVENT IMAGE: BLUEGEN INSTALLED AT THE MADELEY CENTRE IN STAFFORDSHIRE, UK - See more at: http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/news-events/news-archive/2013/july/cfcl-launch-free-fuel-cells-in-the-uk#sthash.WwuwfnXO.dpuf
Forgot about the £3.1m back from the Aussie Gov't, so that gives CFU around £6.1m, enough to last just 4 months.
The next CFU cashflow report is due out the week of 22-26 July. Quoting myself: "26 Apr '13 - Bluegen.net is still only showing 265 units installed. Only 20 BG's installed in 4 months, 60 per annum." 11 July - 275 installed. If that is the same number on results day it will be 10 units installed in 3 months, so down to 40 per annum. It gets worse.... Net operating cash outflow for the March quarter was £4.4m Cash on hand at 31 March was £2.4m 03 May 2013 raised £5m Total cash pot post 31 March £7.4m Burn rate of £4.4m per quarter only leaves CFU with £3m in cash, not enough to last another quarter year. What happens next, fund raising or default of the loan?
16% up today anyone any ideas as to why?
http://www.bluegen.info/freebluegen That screams of how desperate CFU are to sell ANY systems. Bog all sold in the last 6 months even with FIT's in place. I look forward to the next quarterly cash flow report where I expect minimal sales and no reduction in cash burn, so further fund raising will need to happen later this year as I predicted all along. How much will the BG finance cost CFU? They can't expect someone to take a free BG then pay for it through the nose, so CFU must be losing some money going via finance (the interest on it) instead of taking a cash sale. In retail it's called a 'loss leader' and boy do CFU need it.
Did you really mean to imply cfu is a strong buy? or was it an oversight!
What is better for a swiss mountain top home- re today's rns, electricity produced by a petrol driven generator or a BG run on bottled gas, or directly off a hydropower mains system? Maybe BG finds a useful slot in remote areas?
Here's another kick in the groin for payback calculations! Apparently Alliander will only be paying the home owner €0.10/kWh for power fed back to the grid. BUT as I stated in a previous post, the power that a BG injects into the grid is going to cost the home owner €0.10006 to generate, so there is NO PROFIT on excess electricity generated by a BG in this area!!!! I bet THAT isn't in the payback calculations either!! "The retail cost of gas in Germany is €0.06004 per kWh Natural Gas. With 60% efficiency a BG is producing power at a cost of €0.10006 per kWh. If you know what price a German BG owner can sell their spare electric to the grid then you know the value of the spark spread there.The average retail price of electric in Germany is €0.25983/kWh so a BG owner would be paid less than this so that the buyer made a profit on the deal." See: http://www.energy.eu/ "ten cents per kilowatt-hour (maximum 5,000 euros) for electricity fed into the grid." http://www.ceramicfuelcells.de/presse/news-details/brennstoffzellen-initiative-heinsberg-eroeffnet-weg-zum-eigenen-mikrokraftwerk/
FYI: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/21/uk-germany-power-prices-idUKBRE94K0LY20130521
(100,000 buy) date was yesterday
goodness - someone's just bought 100,000 shares. They must know something :-)
Following some more research I can update the sums for CFU reaching break even. March 11, 2013 "The applicant, a local bakery, was granted an amount of 13,000 Euros for the purchase of one BlueGEN unit, which equals 65% of the fundable investment costs." http://fuelcellsworks.com/news/2013/03/11/ceramic-fuel-cells-bluegen-technology-receives-substantial-state-subsidy/ €13,000 / 65 x 100 = €20,000 So €20,000 is the current price of a BG in North Rhine-Westfalia. CFU stated: "From December 2011 to December 2012 the Company has reduced the manufactured cost of the unit by approximately 26 percent, down to approximately €18,000 per unit." So the gross margin on a BG sold in North Rhine-Westfalia in March was €2,000, this is 11.11% on top of the €18,000 manufacturing cost for CFU, I had allowed 15%, seems I was being too generous. So now we can do the sums again, using the known profit margin of €2,000 per BG. Cash burn of £17,532,930 is €20,732,689 per annum at today's exchange spot rate. At a gross profit of €2,000 per BG, CFU need to sell 10,366 systems just to break even. With a system price of €20,000 can you see that happening this year? Next year?, even if the price drops to €18,000? I can see the debt is just going to mount up for the next few years. Where is the investment return going to come from when debt is mounting up at the rate of €20.7m a year and sales are nothing like what they need to be to end that problem?
I keep saying, cut the staff by 50% and cut the Directors salaries by 50%, but now I think even that would not be enough as at best they would still need to be selling 5,000 per annum and quite frankly I cannot see where that level of sales is going to come from in the next 3 years.
Now CFU has £5m of debt and will likely need to raise another £5m+ in October, before it runs so low on cash that it's price gets hammered again. Also "The Loan Notes bear interest at a rate of 9 per cent. per annum which is paid by the Company quarterly in arrears." Interest of 9% on £5m is £450,000 per annum to add to the current cash burn of £17,082,930 makes £17,532,930 per annum. £5m of debt, how long will that take to pay back? Well first of all CFU has to make enough profit to negate the £17,532,930 cash burn, then it needs to make enough profit on top to pay the loan back. Quite mind boggling numbers to get your head around. Cost is the main issue facing uptake of the products. "A strategic imperative for the company is to reduce the unit cost of the BlueGen product. From December 2011 to December 2012 the Company has reduced the manufactured cost of the unit by approximately 26 percent, down to approximately €18,000 per unit. We are pursuing several options to continue to reduce unit costs including redesigning some high value components, outsourcing selected manufacturing and sub-assembly operations and internal process improvements." €18,000 per unit is £15,220. Suppose they make an operating profit of 15%, that is £2,283 per unit. At an operating profit of £2,283 per unit it would take ANNUAL sales of 7,679 units just to cover the current cash burn. It would take sales of a further 2190 on top to pay back the £5m loan. Double that if they get loaned another £5m in October, treble it if they get another £5m in Q2 2014. So already we are looking at CFU needing sales of circa 10,000 per annum over the next 3 years just to break even!! Some people on the BB's talk about 600 units for Germany, but the operating profit on that of around £1,369,800 won't even cover the company cash burn for ONE MONTH. (of £1,423,577.50) Blue sky? Looks more like black clouds from here!!
I was spot on about the opening price too, it opened through arbitrage at 3p, 20% down, in line with the current Aussi price. Dropped a further 3.3% over the day too. "Well done to CFU for getting a NOMAD. Next up the suspension of the stock will be lifted in the UK, then we will see how many holders want to run for the door. The price should be set to open at the UK equivalent of the Aussie price through arbitrage at 2.98p, a significant drop from the 3.75p it closed at when it was suspended."