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I have median broker estimates for 2020 EPS at 302p with 12 month share price target of 3365p. My back of envelope calculation says 2020 EPS of 330p but don't bet your shirt on my calcs lol.
Anyone able to make a guess at EPS for year ehding 31 July 20?
Very cautious approach to restart but apart from that,nothing too much to be concerned about.
Trading statement due Tues 9 June.
https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/05/28/vistry-asks-subcontractors-to-cut-rates/
year are
Assuming EPS for the current yeat arr no less than 60% of last yesrs,the fair value here at the moment would be in the region of 2295p per share.
of course over a 10 year period that is 100% true. What happens to SP in a year or two is a crap shoot. What happens in 10 years is a strategic evidence based decision.
For me being 100% invested with zero in cash I still need to chose sectors and countries. For now I think technology stocks are on a roll aided rather than fettered by Corona virus. UK builders will get their turn to be stars but may not shine for a year or two first.
My mistake of late was to make some short term bets on oil rather than follow my own stated 2 year strategy. I did not fully understand the underlying equity, the impossible happened and I lost money.
Those recent losses just reinforced all we have discussed on TEF board as deep value investors. Don't invest short term. Look for long term value, have a long hold strategy and ride out the short term dips.
A commentator has today suggested that investors should pay no heed to the virus,brexit,broker comments,tv,press or macro noise and focus on the numbers and make decisions on that basis alone
hi terr
agree with all.
I think we are in for 1 or 2 bad years and 8 good years over the next 10. Probably first bad year right now and the other sometime probably by surprise. Might be back to back might not. A lot of bad news priced in right now so a bad year may not mean decreases in SP.
However, anyone putting money into uk house builders now bad year or not will at least double their money over 6 to 8 years, possibly better than that at these low valuations.
I'll pivot back into 1/3rd or more UK houbuilders as soon as Brexit over. I know this will mean selling some favourite technology stock but doubling in 6 to 8 years is a good return. Not dell boy get rich overnight stuff but safe. Nor the doubling in 4 to 6 years I kept touting for TEF but a good return with good odds of it actually happening and low downside risk. Our builders are not going bankrupt or having a near death experiences such as in 2009.
Hi Steph
There is still a need for a massive increase the supply of modern housing.
When covid,brexit,employment security,mortgage finance and other macro issues will result in the resumption of robust sales is the difficult question.
Hence the volatility jn HB SPs.
I agree with strictly we are in for a low interest environment for the foreseeable future.
Helps builders as affordability (as measured by earnings price ratio) is permanently up by a factor of 100% from pre 2008. Also the emerging immigration policy where we unilaterally grant professionals right of entry from a wide number of countries without getting the same in return. Stupid representation of UK interests but good for UK housing market as foreign professionals can come in but we can’t get out. Lower paid and skilled workers who will be restricted were not customers of the new homes anyway.
Low interest rates (and inflation above that rate) will flatter UK builders land banks and margins. It will be 10 good years -expect for the first year as we battle covid and Brexit headwinds.
I will reinvest in volume into UK builders (or any UK only share or asset) once Brexit really sorted one way or anouther. We have had a phony Brexit but the real one is coming and no deal is very much on the table and there are not enough white knight Tories left. We are in the less than fully capable hands of Boris, Raab and Priti Patel who will have to move onto Brexit fresh from royally screwing up our covid 19 response. We were once rated as amongst the best in the world for fighting a pandemic nationally. We had the NHS and stockpiles of PPE and the like. Good tools in the hands of bad managers are not much use though. New Zealand has zero new cases of Corona virus and the economic damage and forward prospects (ahead of a vaccine) is much less than ours because of it. We could have been New Zealand but we are now USA.
No deal will harm all UK shares and the threats that are to come will spook the market. SO just as we are recovering from COVID posturing the top Tories will impose more Brexit posturing on us. Like Trump they will blame everyone but themselves further ruining UK’s ever more fragile position of influence and relevance. Under American pressure UK starting to tear up the prospects of much deeper UK China trade which was the one potential bright spot economically in this whole mess. We will be lucky to hang onto the existing trade agreements we have got with China achieved through our EU negotiations from 1985 onwards.
I’ve mostly pivoted out of Uk builders for the first time since I started in 2007.
Into tech stock, Drapier espírit, polar capital, biotech growth trust, go group, novacyt, etc
My favourite and largest holding is Drapier but the others have performed better so far post Covid.
I thin Uk builders will struggle for a couple of years
Covid is bound to reduce selling prices for at least a year or two. Not enough to put any in financial difficulty as in 2009 but enough to reduce earnings and margins.
That may be priced in but I don’t think the no deal brexit lunacy at the top of the party had been priced in. I think we will get the destabilizing effects of threatening no deal all over again just when the housing market has started to stabilize from Covid.
Nation of lions led by donkeys.
I once proudly had 100% of my investable income in Uk stocks and assets. No longer. Don’t think the lot we have are competent.
CSP results today seem to have caused the market to have second thoughts about how it values homebuilders.
Well done that Board and the company for matching the donations.
Does this link work for you? Start here then put a different Co ID in.
http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=financials&btn=s_ok&symbol=LSE%3ABWY&s_ok=OK
Does anyone know the current NET cash position of the top handful of homebuilders?
Hi guys,
I'm still in BWY and enjoying the slight recovery but for those of you not exclusively tied to bricks I've just written a long post on the TM17 bulletin board about why I believe they should keep climbing in the coming year.
Fyi since Jan 1st: BWY 46% down; TM17 53% up.
Cheers,
Ken
Hi JamesP
I think most (if not all) the big Builders have delayed or cancelled Divis and suspect it is a condition of Govt aid for employees out of work (though not seen any proof of that). As with house sales which will be delayed, I think next years Divis will be greater cos picking up this years as well.
BoL
Homebuilders should suspend Director bonuses until dividends restored
I think it is seen as a sensible move in the current climate, backed up by good trading figures. Better deferred than cancelled IMO.
it was already priced in.will be surprised if this is not the bottom but have not got the bottle to put my money where my mouth is
Morning all, having taken a few of these the other day, I was surprised this morning to see that the market has not reacted badly to the deferral of the interim dividend. Does anyone have any words of wisdom to offer me?
Colinco,
"What was your thinking behind index linked gilts?"
......................................
Yes, I agree with you that deflation is a concern at large currently, but it isn't the thing I fear most...
I don't want to get into a long spiel here as I've written about all this ad nauseam on a blog a number of us share (also called Strictly Bricks, funnily enough....) but, in the longer term scheme of things, the bottoming out of interest rates through cycles has come at lower and lower points and has taken over two hundred years to arrive at where we are (google can provide...) and, as a consequence, quantitative easing has been created as a replacement , as I see it, as interest rate lowering has now run out of track unless state banks start to venture into the dark territory of negative interest rates...
And, as we've seen, governments round the world have found they've got away with QE so far and that it has seemed to be an easy tool to use...?
And this was before coronavirus, which governments are obviously having to throw an unspecified shed-load of liquidity at, and counting...
Traditionally, we know that governments have used inflation to ease the pain of war debt, and I don't see this as being much different, albeit at war with a very small and unseen enemy...?
I've been nursing a concern about serious inflation ever since the credit crunch, and have built up an increasing reserve of Index-Linked gilts since then...
I don't claim to understand them particularly well, and moving cash into them three weeks ago (I went about 65% cash, 35% still in house builders' shares - that's ALL I invest in, hence the moniker...) has cost me as they've dropped a bit (presumably due to the deflation fears you've referenced?) but only a smidgen of the comparable drop in shares, and I'm now down to just over a third in cash/gilts having started gradually moving back in, but now also have the equivalent in shares that I had before that move... (I've become more and more of the view that it's better to aim to be half right, half wrong - my new motto is "wussy investing rules, okay?").
So anyway, I appreciate that I lost a few percent on the Index-linkers I've just bought and sold within a few weeks, and also that that probably hasn't been helped by the government now looking to shift the linking from RPI to the lower CPI (something I hadn't been aware of when I bought them... duh...), but I have no other answer for myself about how to protect from the serious inflation I fear, if it comes, for liquid assets...?
And of course, DYOR and all that, and I'm not looking to influence anyone here - just trying to briefly explain my decision to buy these...
Strictly
Strictly,
What was your thinking behind index linked gilts?
Was this a recent switch? All I can see moving forward is deflation, as the increase in the supply of money is more than offset by the reduction in the speed at which the money moves around the economy.