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Interestking – please don’t ever ‘pull back’ as per your 06:55 message! Your input – as well as that of all the good posters on this board – is extremely valuable to those of us who do not have the time to focus entirely on their BPC investment (gamble?) and whose reading of the boards is usually done as a catch-up at weekends. Even more maddeningly, I live and work in central London, with both home and office in walking distance of the Chesterfield. Had I known in advance about the presentation the other night and not been so busy I would certainly have attended. Aarrggh! So thanks also to all the others who reported from their attendance: there is nothing like face-to-face and seeing ‘the whites of their eyes’ to get a good feel for any investment. Please keep up your good work!
Hi Old
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
In other words take nothing anyone says as gospel.
The BPC website has tons of research under “INVESTORS” - particularly refer to MOYES references as they are no.1 INDEPENDENT assessors of the data provided by BPC technical data.
GL mon ami.
X
Interestking
Excellent post old chap - no ramp, just facts set out and logical inference applied.
It must be two drills position as funds potential draw down is exactly the $40m amount required for 45-60 days on each.
Sentiment being king - BPC probably don't want to say we have enabled funds for two drills in case P1 is a D word, so spin the extra contingency card, greater depth dependent on LGO as they go.
Its tight to fund two drills, but do able, more funds possible if signs are encouraging im sure.
Two drills self funding is a fantastic position enabled, I wonder if a side deal with Seadrill possible, it happens.
Message to Majors overall - BPC have two drills funding potential now without you, this is happening, its time to come to terms with your fear and desire.
very good interestking but what is DYOR
Hi Tib
My thoughts exactly:-
By my calculations the funding position is:-
$36.0 mio committed funding
$2/3.0 mio cash in hand
$1.4 mio march MF issuance - this is shares @ 3.35p so should be taken up IMO.
Ergo approx $40 mio available.
My guess is:-
P1 drill Early April.
High gas evidence after several weeks (Cretaceous/Albian levels) based on Moyes evaluations.
2nd drill expedition considered.
My understanding is that the Exec believe the drill will take < 60 days which means much lower capex.
(The contingency funding of $25-30 mio per well assumes worst case scenario of 90 days drilling.)
I am doing some number crunching over the w/e re SP management/strategy and will revert.
The bottom line is do not sell any shares and do not set any stops for MMs to target.
This is only, overall, going one way pre spud.
IMO the MMs are very short of stock and have overwhelming “BUY” order books.
Becoming a £100 mio company has far reaching potential positivity as it puts us into a different league re “minimum investment criteria” for some investors, particularly professional institutions who may wish to join in.
If we don’t let them have stock there is only one way to go.
Remember we PIs own the majority of the tradable stock and have some control here.
The MOBYs are “podding” and think they have the power - they don’t - we do for once.
There will be a case for hedging just prior to spud if you feel the need, as everyone’s financial position is different.
Hopefully everyone understands DYOR and is only “playing” with money they can afford to lose.
THIS COULD BE A DUSTER.
This may also be a life changer for most and comes along once in a blue.
Take care.
P.S. If I am being too overactive and folks want me to pullback please indicate thus. I do not want to be seen as a ramper or a know it all etc.
GL
IK
With that funding position now upto to $36m potential im wondering if its a hedge position to go for two drills they call as they drill Perseverance 1.
BPC Well costs estimated at $25m - if lower end or streamlined approach taken then two drills funding or sidetrack from P1 may be possible, could be determined quickly into drill as they hit top cretaceous within two weeks perhaps, Albian soon after and checks against Geological modelling versus actual conditions found.
Also, the team assembled slide 9 is impressive, extensive network.
https://www.bpcplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/BPC-Proactive-Presentation-website-20-February-2020-FINAL.pdf
Over 400 years experience between them, deployed on one drill.