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Pduk: There's a huge difference between a duster and commercial viability. This is why the Percy-1 autopsy RNS which we await is a key to the question about further exploration and farm-in possibilities.
As for political uncertainty:
1. The contract is water-tight
2. Just because a percentage of Bahamians don't want oil exploitation, led by a few very loud (probably American influenced) environmentalists and special interest groups, does not mean the majority are against.
3. A major such as Exxon is used to dealing with this sort of stuff. It doesn't stop them drilling in controversial places such as Alaska or in regions controlled by dictators or where human rights do not exist. (the latter 2 points does not apply to the Bahamas Gov)
4. As for royalty complaints, refer to how Exxon handled a similar case. https://apnews.com/article/9e1dd752edb53c7fb50360e8bf6bd291
Starchild
ps... don't quite understand your use of the word 'scripted'. I normally copy/past my morning post into a Word Doc so I can structure it for easier understanding and too a degree to minimise TYPOs. This is out of respect to the persons that read them and practically to ensure they are below the 3000 char maximum allowed per post.
"Some were dusters and others non-commercially viable"
I'm unsure why you are attempting to separate the two but being, 'non-commercially viable' is the same as the result being a duster. This detail is the basics. This is why these plays are binary.
The rest of your scripted opinion appears viable but I doubt the JV will happen due to cost and the political nightmare. That is of course my opinion.
Read an article from the weekend about $100/b oil worries on https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/02/28/worry-about-100-oil-emerges/
Watch Dr Zak Phillips’ 10 min interview from almost exactly 1 year ago proposing the possibility of $100/b+ PoO in 2022/23. He was right about BPC being able to get better rig rate due to the PoO collapse due to Russia/Opec and Covid would be temporary. https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914647/oil--may-rebound-above-us100-by-2022-due-to-lack-of-investment---proactive-s-zac-phillips-914647.html
We await the final Percy-1 autopsy RNS. If it meets expectations or exceeds them, a JV/Farm-in with a major is even more likely due to the possibility of PoO being in triple figures. This is further under-pinned by the billions the majors were forced to cut in exploration spending during 2020 to protect their balance sheets. BPC’s Bahamas acreage can give them a substantial opportunity ‘on a plate.’ Why? To pay all or most of BPC’s back costs of c$130m and to undertake future exploration is relatively low capex for a major. It is also near Texas energy infrastructure as opposed to the middle of nowhere off the coast of Africa in deep waters. BPC has another leverage card to sweeten a Farm-in deal, the Major could have an option for first dibs in Uruguay.
An there’s another reason. The story of Guyana. It took several wells. Some were dusters and others non-commercially viable. Then in 2015 Esso hit the jackpot. Refer to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Guyana and for historical deep dive see from page 9 onwards on https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Traversing-a-Slippery-Slope-Guyanas-Oil-Opportunity.pdf
A bi-product of the above is Guyana and Suriname (where BPC is exploring and spudding soon) are, I believe, in the same geological basin.
Stevenwest: I wish you all the very best. I hope you recover your losses soon.
IMHO. DYOR. GLA
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/