Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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and if by magic it is back to normal
Was reading through the usual guff and now the latest post is from Tuesday 1921hrs from jono44
Have I missed something seems 100's have gone?
Cars I largely agree with you. But I still believe the funds could have been raised from share holders at 2p with no promises of a minimum return.
Of course I want there to be HUGE amounts of oil, but regardless this is one of histories worst deals whether there is or not.
Bespoke I truly want there to be oil, and I feel confident there is but the deal was terrible.
Regarding the October placing, if you got any you have to take the risk you will not be getting 115% return guaranteed. So if you sell those shares at 1.5p you get 1.5p not 2.3p
Thanks Cars.. hope the decision works out. There shares would be worth nothing to though, but suppose there salary is a nice one though!!
Sharescare agreed, the one thing that gives me more confidence is the delay of the Put date which coincided with the possibility of successful initial target results.
We may have had no other options to keep the bit turning. I do think they would have pulled the plug this week if nothing was showing hence my optimism.
ShareScare.. Do you think there was anything else on the table at the time given the uncertainty with the legal issues?
The guarantee isn't an issue if we have oil. It's just a 2p placing in regards dilution. Same as the 2p placing in October. Was that one also the worst deal ever?
So in my opinion even if there is oil this was the worst deal ever. potentially circa 20% of the company sold for what amounts to under £20 million. Or 2p out of every 10p potential profit for share holders some of which have been here for over a decade.
Dave we have done that many times, a couple of days ago being the last batch of predictions
Points from SCs post:
"Some on this BB believe the Lombard deal is very risky in the event of a Percy-1 duster."
That would be because it is extremely risky in the event of a duster.
"The fear being, Lombard are guaranteed 2.3p on c560m shares with the belief BPC has given an unconditional guarantee."
The actual fear is that they have guaranteed 2.3p, on potentially 750,000,000 with warrants that have been issued under the same terms that could take the total to 937,000,000 if the warrants are exercised in the next 12 months. Those warrants actually at higher prices 3p and 4p respectively.
"I do not believe it is unconditional because:
1. The most important: it would have been one of the greatest investment/lending opportunities of 2020 with queues of investors lining up outside BPC’s HQ salivating at the idea of being part of the action. Think about this: 15% ROI plus a lot more if Percy-1 and the whole B structure un-risked resulting is a surge to the SP. Or 15% return plus a guarantee to own a large chunk of the company (including its ex-CERP assets potentially worth 7p per share) in the event of a duster. Anything that sounds too good to be true, is usually….too good to be true."
Too much talk of 15%, when all the RNS's released regarding the Funding agreement and Funding option agreement expressly state 115%, and ex cerp assets worth potentially 7p per share with over 5 billion shares in circulation is extremely rampy even for the most devout holder. MC of over £350,000,000 for ex cerp assets ? unrealistic in my honest opinion.
"2. The 2nd most important: why hasn’t Lombard dumped the whole lot already, come back for more, and before dumping, shorted the share to make even more profit? Because they can’t."
Making the call gives them until the 16th April to dump a potential 750,000,000 shares with a guarantee of getting 2.3p per share regardless of the sale price. So no need to dump and come back for more, they are guaranteed 115% so sell at 2.299p or 0.01p they get 115%
Direct quotes from RNSs relating to both Funding agreement and Funding option agreement:
"BPC may be required to make a cash payment to the Investor to the extent that the Investor's aggregate return from a sale, if any, of those new ordinary shares has been less than 115% of the subscription price. BPC is only required to make a payment in the event the Investor sells shares for, in aggregate, an average price of less than 2.3 pence per share (being 115% of the subscription price)"
" the Investor has the option to double that amount"
"As part of the initial Funding Agreement, the Investor will also be issued with warrants, valid for one year, to subscribe for a further 93,750,000 shares at a price of 3.0p per share and a further 93,750,000 shares at a price of 4.0p per share."
"The same terms will apply for any funds that may subsequently be made available to BPC under the Funding Option Agreement."
Jdam the 12th Feb is the deadline for the Call to be made and activate the new reconciliation date to the middle of April instead of the original 60 days from Spud.
I guess having mulled this over a little more they have no benefit to make the Call soon as they can wait until the date of the results RNS or the 12th February.
This deal gets more confusing and strange by the day.
There's a lot of posts explaining what may follow if the project fails. I'm interested to learn what sp should we expect on success?
Ie High volume of low sulphur oil?
Thanks in advance
How about a late RNS after market closes
Water doesn’t start the rumours. Oil does....
Atb
Thats a good point about the date because I thought they had to do it before results but to be able to take up the option of more shares on the day of the results is incredible.
If its good news they are quids in, if bad they won't gamble because they might lose if price collapses and they can't sell all of their shares within the given time for 115% gain, or they might.
Really puts into perspective how bad the bod really are.
I really intended to sell some at double the price I paid and leave the rest to fate but its really is looking unlikely thanks to the massive dilution, thanks Mr p.
Can't take that chance.
Good luck, hope its oil and not water.
Will maybe get back in at later date if all goes well.
#simplify thanks Chesh
So what are we saying about the 12th please? I’m a little lost, any clarification please would be great.
Pros it does say the date of you are correct. Another crazy situation unless the results are not planned to be released after the 12th.
Cars, bespoke, thank you very much for your reply. It is very much appreciated. Lets hope they dont screw us over and have genuinely found the oil. Like you say it would be commercial suicide if they had not and may have other implications for them personally.
earlier than the date of BPC's RNS announcement.............!
or earlier than the 12th Feb.............!
All the best (simples.......... :)
"until the earlier of"......... is important..............!
either or, but which or which comes first..............!
All the best (who knows............. :()
CarsCoffee.......its says the "Date of" the RNS........so to me that says provided the results RNS come on or before 12th of Feb then the Investor can take the call option on the date of the RNS........but not after that date.
So for me, it says, they can do it on the day of news, if news is on or before 12th Feb.
Also the Put and the Call need to be executed for the new date to come into effect and for them to get the free ride at the results. I am expecting the Call to come this week.
Pros I read it as that they need to exercise the Call by the date of the RNS. They cannot wait until the P1 results then make the Call.
This is why I expect the Call to be made relatively soon as they should have no knowledge of when the RNS will come.