Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
The good thing about the Eskom tender is that the projects are fully funded by the World Bank. These projects are going to go ahead and are paid for!
Sanchez - Ok I was a little vague in my comments and you have clearly taken it upon yourself to decide what I mean by that. So let me clarify that to you before you start giving me a hard time.
I have been invested here since late 2016/early 2017 and have done my research, hence I built a sizable position (relatively for me) because I believed in a) that we have to move to a greener world and there was a problem to solve with how that is done in underdeveloped countries without using cheaper fossil fuels (coal etc) and b) a company that was run by a CEO operating impeccably, doing good business and wasn't diluting shareholders to oblivion to move it forward.
Now my point simply was that we are dealing with an entity in ESKOM that has not had the shiniest of pasts in relation to corruption and is pretty much the main reason for SA's sovereign debt problem.
South Africa’s public finances are a mess. Economic growth is low or non-existent, tax revenue collection is repeatedly below forecasts, debt levels have risen rapidly and are now at their highest levels in the post-apartheid era andbthe poor performance of state-owned enterprises is necessitating large-scale government support.
The tabling of the 2019/20 Budget in February 2019 have only made the situation worse. A downgrade of government debt to ‘junk’ by a third ratings agency will lead to an outflow of investment and exacerbate matters further.
"Official" Democracy is fairly new to SA and many other African nations so of course there political risk on any decisions made (albeit small).
So to elaborate for you on my comments Sanchez they aren't lazy outdated stereotypes, there are absolutely economic and political risks when dealing in Africa that are higher than when dealing with developed countries. But I am not saying they don't exist everywhere.
Appreciate it is a different country but look at KIBO's Mbeya MCPP project in Tanzania. Went to tender, were told to make some changes to their submission over a long drawn out period and were "in close contact with he relevant authorities", for them to be told they hadn't won it but no reasons given. Yet the govt were committed to providing a reliable power source to their people.
I don't for a second question FM's ability hence my investment but always best to expect the unexpected.
Indeed. They finished the deal on Friday and the Eskom tender hit the website on Sunday. So weird! Ducks being lined up for sure.
Although I suppose we still do not know who we will be partnering with for battery construction. Time will tell on that front, or am I being stupid and it's obvious?
Yes, I agree that there presumably will be lots of news closely stacked together - that's often how it's been with Bushveld in the past. You think nothing is going on for a few weeks perhaps and then you suddenly stellar news, sometimes across a series of RNSs.
I very much the Enerox RNS as a sign. Because they could've pulled the trigger on that months ago if they wanted to. For some reason they waited until now. Just when we discover the Eskom tender is open / happening this month!
I'm with you all the way on that bassguy! I reckon the timing of Eskom contracts, East London and JSE and / or main market listing may very well all marry up beautifully in typical Fortune fashion.
I believe BMN will obtain a contract from Eskom
I also believe JSE listing will come either soon before or after.
I also believe the seller will have finished by then, and BMN know who it is.
Funnily enough, all if these things will coincide, along with much more detailed information on every aspect that we have been scratching around on...
It will seem like a huge coincidence, just as BMN so soars on the JSE and possibly main market London.
I do a fair amount of business in South Africa and the companies we work with universally do not trust their employees with anything (at all). From senior management to boots on the ground they want auditing to be done on every single bit of information that is signed, no matter how trivial. Honestly it's insane the things they think people will lie about and cover up!
In contrast we work with wind farms in the UK that trust everything their employees say to them with no need for extreme auditing.
The trustworthy South Africans have certainly gained a lot more power than they used to, and corruption at the highest levels seems much less. And I trust Fortune and BMN 110%. I am extremely confident that we will get some of the Eskom work,maybe even a large amount of it. It is clear we are very cozy with the powers that be in SA. The partnership with the IDC is rather (perhaps super) important.
Also, I do not think the Eskom work is critical to what Fortune and Mikhail are aiming for. Our share price certainly doesn't reflect the expectation that we will get any work at all, never mind a large slice of a huge battery storage project happening right on our doorstep with criteria that seem to have been written by us, for us.
But I understand anyone being at least a little wary! It is truly understandable to have a distrust of South Africans when South Africans themselves don't even trust South Africans!
One thing is for sure, the energy business is starting to lift off. Landing that first Eskom project (which I do believe we are likely to do - but we may not!) should send us flying. I'd really like to see us deal list on the JSE asap.
Contract will have to be awarded this year to fulfil the max time window of the world bank as I understand it.
Looks to me that orders will start to roll out from October
If/when the tender is awarded in our favour - how does the timing of the contract award (Q3/Q4?) work in with the delayed JSX listing ? As it would make much stronger headlines awarding this to a 'SA' listed company ( putting aside any potential JSX upside) . The flip side being..... if we are successful in Q4 and then JSX follows the contract award ( say next year) that would potentially see any gains made prior to the JSX listing .
'This is Africa, so anything is possible '
'Hopefully FM has built his connection base to give us the best possible chance of being in the mix.'
If you took the risk without really understanding the strategic positioning that Fortune has been building towards, which it sounds like you have, I would suggest some more research is needed - it will also help you to avoid vague statements and lazy, outdated stereotypes.
I think you have to have in the back of your mind at all times that this is Africa, so anything is possible......but its a risk we have known form day one and clearly have taken. Hopefully FM has built his connection base to give us the best possible chance of being in the mix.
Fingers crossed it isn't pulled form under us.
Fortune has built a compelling web of alliances and influence with recent appointees, partnering with IDC on electrolyte manufacture, Mikhail's pre-eminence in the world of gfrid-scale energy storage and, of course, simple geographic location and the economic benefits that yields to SA. Is there any chance BE's tender for Eskom could fail? This is a genuine question. I don't want to be complacent. It all looks so good, but what are the potential tripwires other than the big number at the bottom?