The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
If the Investor Briefing is on the 8th , is that not to align with potential contract award announcements which I thought were due to start around the 7th - appreciate it may be coincidence nevertheless the reality might be FY results issued in the next couple of days and BE news next week. Have I got that right ?
If/when the tender is awarded in our favour - how does the timing of the contract award (Q3/Q4?) work in with the delayed JSX listing ? As it would make much stronger headlines awarding this to a 'SA' listed company ( putting aside any potential JSX upside) . The flip side being..... if we are successful in Q4 and then JSX follows the contract award ( say next year) that would potentially see any gains made prior to the JSX listing .
Given the significant BE activity and perhaps after any other BE announcements, it would be really really useful for SPAngel to update a 12-24 month revenue forecast ( just as they have amended several times with the changes in the $V price) but this time taking a stab to include the tangible BE activities - that would perhaps help focus some minds on what lay ahead.
Putting aside the capital costs of the project ....and plugging in the 80pcm into the 2019 production would give 8 months at 80pcm or 640 pa uplift - in simple terms a 25% increase in the 2018 published figure of 2573 mtV which in itself generated 107.5 m$ EBITDA normalising this in the new post Vanchem model would be 134.2m$ EBITDA regardless of any future development /expansion etc.
The Post tax profit estimate for 2018 of $76.2m following the Q4 published EBITDA of $107.5 ( gives and EPS of $0.068), following which one broker gave an updated forecast for 2019 ( $75/kg and 3400mtV) of $109.2m ( EPS $0.097) and for 2020 ( $75/kg and 4370mtV ) the EPS would be $0.129. Would welcome a second opinion on these numbers as it was quite a few weeks back when i reviewed them in detail.
You will need to factor in the cost ( $30,000/mt) for any meaningful view on a divi and using your model that would be approx £158m leaving a net margin of nearer £476m
My distant memories of a cheesy Business school model we used- was a simple 3 way split of on tax, re-investment and return to investors (divi) i.e. approx 15pps using these number ( but just on Vanadium) .
Don't have a view on BE.
Hope this helps.
Wonder whether we will see BE update or Q3 Operational update on Wednesday on the assumption the offload was agreed/planned to be completed before these 2 significant updates - both of which have been previously signposted. If that is the case then you can’t help but be impressed by the governance and execution.
Nick,
Thanks for doing this - it is really really useful .
I am curious to see what your model estimates using 5000 /10000 production figures- is it simply proportional ie 88p/176p ?
Appreciate other factors will be in play during these production windows but I think it would be a useful comparative exercise for the Vametco element only .