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GS is destroying its investment, so there's the *******s. Perhaps a little more PR could save the day. It's good there will be news on this special share and the potential to go further down is limited. It will always be a vanadium mine delivering more vanadium every year till we reach 8400 MtV, so there you have your peace of mind investment. Will it drop to 7p? I don't know, but even if you bought or will buy at 15p, you would be doing great. Little ramping can't hurt or just a little. Good Night!
If their average is about 29p then it is indeed inconceivable they'd be trying to pull some dirty deal with Duferco.
No need to get upset by the suggestion though: there has been a lot of speculation here about the 'tame seller' over the past year that it's alright to consider every possible scenario, even the most 'rubbish' one as some posters would say.
What is clear to me is that BMN is vastly undervalued and that the SP will have to catch up at some point.
Agree with Uksteveg. Most likely from available evidence is a disgruntled seller, but is selling in an orderly manner. Unlikely they gave BMN any other direct options. Lack of online info on GS suggests an active policy of secrecy. If you can contact them and get a reply, it will be very interesting (but unlikely I think)
Minimum for selling currently and previously 11p. My guess is 10.75-12.75 range for weeks to come. Duferco week further suppression possible, but does seem unlikely.
I never heard so much rubbish. Golden Summit destroying their investment and selling at a substantial loss to benefit Duferco? What b@ll@cks!
It might be niave but l am going to try and get a answer from golden summit on why they are selling.
If you don't ask you don't get
Tbc
GS bought the majority on 19th October 2018 at a price of about 29p so significant loss
And I cannot see a connection between GS and Durferco. GS have been selling down for several months, there appears to have been some sort of falling out with BMN. I think the AGM vote was a parting shot rather than a warning shot. No point in trying to speculate why this has happened, we will probably never know. GS do appear to have continued selling after the notification, and at the current rate it will take 2 to 3 months to dispose of all shares. I do believe the dispersal is orderly, as the pattern seems to be to sell in chunks when any buying starts up. They’re not just selling off millions into the market on any day. They have certainly taken a hit on this. Unfortunately the current buying pressure is not sufficient to handle the GS share sell-off and other the other concurrent selling. We need a shot of good news, quite soon.
They aren't necessarily selling at a loss: if the seller acted in agreement with Duferco, they could be selling their shares at an average price of, say, 18p over an extended period, driving the price down to ~10p for Duferco to exercise the CLN's around those levels and then sell the shares (off market) back to the seller at, say, 14p so that each party earns 4p per share and the seller ends up with the original number of shares they owned. (I have no clue what the average price of the original holding was, so the numbers above are just an example.)
Not sure how this can be squared with the 'orderly market' clause in the BMN-Duferco agreement but perhaps XOFF trades are not subject to such clauses. Anyway, we've seen money men doing dodgier things and getting away with it.
One thing I'm convinced of is that the first tranche of Duferco conversion in October will trigger a considerable rise in the SP.
We don't know why GS is selling. It might be a change of course: they decided to disinvest and take their losses. But the selling coincides with the situation of Duferco having an interest in a low SP. It might be far fetched, but I am sure there can be made a calculation in which both would benefit. To be clear: I think the SP at the moment is far below fair value.
Bummered, what are your thoughts that Duferco may wish to stake build in the background or that there is some sort of collusion to get Duferco a cheaper price? I tend to never rule out anything but at this point I cannot see how one investor selling a stake deliberately at a loss so that another could potentially achieve more shares through their CLN notes would be a good option.
yes of course the 7th Nov D'oh, thanks for pointing that out.
Will be interesting to monitor the SP from Monday 26th October.
Thank you, hadn't noticed this.
Bummerd - the transaction closure date was the 7 November, so the 10 day volume weighted average period ends on the 6 November.
Does any of you suspect a sort of deal between Duferco and GS? As GS is selling far below the SP they bought for.
Aka the rns suggests part cash payment is BMNs choice not Dufercos.
This 10 day period until the 23th will be interesting, with GS still selling. With the SP at this level, it won't be a difficult choice for Duferco.
For 1 BMN would have to know with some certainty that Duferco actually want to convert some or all CLN's.
Then of course we would want BMN to get the best price from SG or the management would face further scrutiny from out good selves.
I have considered similar scenario's where if BMN started buy shares on the open market from early October they would push the SP up raising the value of the WVAP 10 days prior to 22nd October and reducing dilution of shares. But again if Duferco then just said 'Cash please' would management have to pay out the $11.3m without having to quickly sell the shares again.
I would be pleased if Duferco did take shares as it would leave BMN with a bigger pot for capital expenditure and show the market that Duferco have confidence that the SP is way undervalued.
To get back on this suggestion: why doesn't Bushveld buy the remaining GS shares (and give them to Duferco)?
Seems like a great plan and everyone wins!
Less dilution, sp will rise quickly so even less dilution needed, bmn probably will make a bit as well