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Calamari I am glad we agree on something. You are not an expert on Vanadium prices. And may I point out that I did not say that you had claimed such expertise. All I said was that neither of us are experts on this matter.
Your response? Wait until V price is over $40. Ok that’s fine but you may find the share price rather higher by then too, though of course I can’t be certain of that.
My strategy is different. Study what the consensus amongst analysts and industry experts is with regard to direction of travel of the V price and respond accordingly. ie get in early.
That consensus suggests a degree of confidence that the v price will continue to rise in 2021 because that’s what the expected demand supply relationship should dictate.
Personally now seems a very good time to invest in BMN. A rising v price trend but a share restrained at present by external forces and thus cheap. Why wait and potentially pay a lot more? Anyway that is on my opinion and not advice. Everyone must do what they think best.
Completely agree with pdub's post... Key points that are not being concentrated on for the higher production costs.
What is a astonishing here is where the market was pricing bmn before owning vanchem, the increase in overall production and the growth thats still going on.
Let alone the investment made is ies and reinvestment into enerox.
Hopefully with the statement on separating news with the energy side something comes along soon. Need to start seeing the market cap reflect the investment here.
Calamari you are no more an expert on the future price of vanadium than I am. That is why I look across a range of analysts to seek common thoughts amongst folk that have greater knowledge and expertise on this market than you or I do. I am sure you would agree that is a sound course of action … as you are an investor.
There seems to be a general agreement amongst those analysts and experts that the demand for vanadium will remain strong and that this is likely to fuel further rises in the commodity price.
You can disagree all you like with that but your disagreement will not be with me … it will be with people with access to more information than you or I have and who do this for a living. Choice is yours.
Everything points to rising V prices in 2021. For BMN that means rising profitability.
Whether or not you chose to buy is of no interest to me. What you write on this bb is.
Not buying at 8p is terrible investing/trading whatever you want to call it. You know as well as anyone on here that there's a realistic chance of the V price rallying and the BMN share price rallying too. If you genuinely (I don't believe it) wouldn't tuck some money away in BMN at 8p and watch and wait to see how the story unfolds then that's your loss.
It's a pointless hypothetical anyway as BMN isn't falling to levels last seen in 2017 in a million years.
Correction: “… in relation to V price.”
There has been some talk today around production costs, which must always be seen in context and in relation to V costs.
I note one familiar trader that currently I believe does not hold a position here (very important to remember that such a person is always looking for a lower entry point) saying they wouldn’t buy at 8p. Well frankly then not a very good trader.
Back to the point about production costs. The following extract from the RNS is VERY important:
“Q1 2021 production cash cost of US$26.51/kgV was 37 per cent higher than Q1 2020 (Q1 2020: US$19.36/kgV) and 27 per cent higher than Q4 2020 (Q4 2020: US$20.90/kgV) due to lower volumes as a result of the planned maintenance shutdown and a stronger ZAR:USD exchange rate.”
It clearly tells us that one of the main factors for unusually high production costs in Q1 at Vametco was that the plant was shut for 35 days for maintenance. Fixed costs still have to be paid but are therefore spread over a much lower tonnage of production and therefore a much higher unit cost. This is temporary and the plant is already back to normal. So what does the company expect normal to be in terms of production costs? See next extract:
“it is currently anticipated that Vametco production will be towards the lower end of guidance of between 2,700 mtV and 2,850 mtV and the higher end of its production cash cost (C1) of between US$20.0/kgV and US$21.30/kgV (ZAR320/kgV and ZAR340/kg).”
So back to the $20 to $21 range. When looking forward at profitability make sure this is fully understood.
Looking forward the group production is still likely to be in excess of 4000 mtV in 2021, the largest ever total?
And just about every analyst sees rising demand and therefore a tightening of supplies in 29121. Expect continued rises in the Vanadium price which will significantly further improve profit margins. Don’t let the scaremongers kid you otherwise.
So in 2021 we have:
Increasing production
Improved reliability and efficiency at Vametco
Rising V prices
Increasing profitability
You would have to be a real pessimist to think that won’t push up the share price. Hopefully the Q2 update will give us confirmation. When the ii selling ends that should remove the brake on the share price.
And all this done without the aid of Bushveld Energy. The energy storage business will be important but as yet it does not define BMN. The steel industry remains by far the largest market and demand from there looks strong.
It is important for everyone to be as familiar with details such as these in order to prevent being hoodwinked by trolls and traders. Then you can make your own informed decisions.
Short term pain, long term gain!
You'd be silly, IMO to leave now.
Whilst there are some posters trying to scare shareholders into believing that our Production Costs are going to be extortionately high this year and in following years, and that we need substantial Vanadium price rises to make a profit, please see below BigBiteNow's analysis.
https://www.bbnbigbitenow.com/post/bushveld-minerals-review-of-q1-2021-update-part-2
BBN has Bushveld's average (spread across Vametco and Vanchem) TOTAL production costs at circa $30 per KgV for 2021.
These higher production costs are short-term and are fully funded maintenance costs to INCREASE PRODUCTION to circa 4,100 mtV this year and circa 5,500 mtV next year. These production costs will drop down to a much lower level next year. So short term pain and long term gain.
BigBiteNow is a much respected poster and carries out extensive research into Bushveld Minerals. Some other self-proclaimed Long Term Holders and shareholders/non-shareholders i'm really not sure what game they are playing, and i would suggest that quite a few are trying to get a cheaper buy-in price or are massively trading Bushveld at the moment!
So if our short term all-in Costs are circa $30 per KgV, any increase in the Vanadium price from here will result in much higher profits for Bushveld.
There is so much positioning happening from some shareholders at the moment!