The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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Sold all of mine today. Might be foolish but this is a dizzy height and I have been burned badly in other shares by not selling at a high. Usually get it wrong so watch it go to £55!
Sold 70% of my holding on Friday at just over £48. I think this is fully valued at the moment and could drift backwards. I have been a long-term holder and it's been a good investment: management remains some of the best in housebuilding but I just don't like the macro background and the prospect of a Labour government. That will be bad for Berkeley's middle-class customers and profitability.
AceOfClubs
Berkeley and M&G’s plans get green light despite concerns about ”an incongruous, monolithic wall of development”
Housing secretary Michael Gove has given the green light for a 2,150-home development on the site of a former Homebase and Tesco’s in Hounslow, west London.
A planning inspector had recommended refusal for a development of 16 blocks of up to 17-storeys on the two sites at the Tesco and Homebase sites on Syon Lane on the grounds that some of the buildings were too high.
The planning applications were made by St Edward Homes, a joint venture company owned by M&G Investments and Berkeley.
Nearly 4% now. Clearly the market thinks little of the report which if you read it one way is understandable. The run up this week was presumably based on the hope that the report would be more positive and while it certainly isn't negative it is a steady as she goes so all those hoping for a jump are baling. It all seems to be small numbers of shares so presumably pis rather than iis. If it had reached £50 I might have sold some myself as taxes are due.
Waiting to see how far it drops.
Very positive half year report, the nearly 2% share price drop seems a bit harsh
As I write, Crest Nicholson is trading at just under 50% of net tangible asset valuation! £876.6m of net assets, priced at £404m market cap…. Crazy!!
Even assuming worst case scenario:
Write the £29m intangible's off- leaves £847.6m net assets.
Inventories were sitting at £1108.1m on the latest 2023 balance sheet. So assuming worst case scenario, let’s say a write down of 20% due to market conditions- (£221.62m).
LEAVES £626m OF NET ASSETS (WORST CASE). That’s a 55% premium on current market cap!!
Being as Crests business is also predominantly in the south of England, it seems like a good opportunity for Berkeley to put a bid in to get the assets on the cheap. The latest accounts show it has £1070m of cash, so it’s well placed to put a bid in.
I’m not saying I’ve heard any rumours of this, just that it would be a great opportunity!
Nothing to brag about if you won by peeping, trafficking, or winking. We all know how you win. Shameless turkey!
No.1 High leverage landlords who own multiple houses on buy-to-let mortgage. Mortgage payments go up with mortgage rates, but rental incomes tend to go down instead when renters cannot get enough incomes in a hard time. When landlords cannot need their ends, they will be forced to sell low.
No.2 Single homeowner with a large mortgage and happens to lose job in a hard time, the bank lender doesn't care how much the mortgage default property can be sold on.
No.3 Small builders are forced to sell low to keep cash flow running.
No.4 Big builders with high debts, low cash reserves and low land banks. Low cash flow happens when housing market crashes.
At present, new mortgage rates are from 3.6% to 5.9%, standard mortgage rate from Nationwide is 5.24%, so it is quite a big jump from the current term of rate which is about 2%.
Next two years will see mortgage rate up to near or exceed previous crashing rate of 6%, mortgage default will increase, house price will be at all-time high, cost of house improvement at all-time high, and affordability at all-time low as salary and employment opportunity do not keep up with. Housing market correction is unavoidable.
To make it worse, when housing market does crash, mortgage lending becomes extremely tight, so that only those buy with cash only can get bargain price.
Be prepared.
I am not sure it is the same church as I attended 10 years ago, that one started at 11am. Couldn't get in, it was too late and gate was closed, so couldn't pray.
God don't help everyone, and stock markets are still falling.
The most and first expenditure are foods. Imported foods mainly come from Africa and Europe. Weak pound doesn't matter that much, strong dollar is irrelevant. Weak pound can attract injections of strong dollar capital.
High inflation and high interest rate cause destructions in every aspect in every walk of life. FED has been repeating this disaster so far and can get away with it.
I feel the need to pray for God's help after 10 years of not touching the Bible, the local church opens on Sunday morning. Stock markets shouldn't be places people visit so much in the next few years.
Max is controlling the SP, living in a mighty castle with a big shark in the pond.
Trade index if you cannot go to bed with Max in that place.
I almost forgot there was a lovely writing letter posted to me by Marvis a few weeks ago. Thanks for that. Who could it be?
Bought some at under 33 quid.
Do not forget barbes, bots and bails from the Pooo-liteee, they are around detecting. They certainly like to eat big meals, or small snaps. They like to being landlords, the best way to make money with an over-paid job. Nothing is secure on line, they certainly can know who is the poster.
Some shares suck like black holes. How to recognize them? It certainly takes time, but time will tell. The tell-tale sign is, if too many fat ladies sing on the same day, that share will behave like a black hole. Another tell-tale sign is, if too many shorts are accumulated over years, that share will behave like a black hole as well. What is more? Let me think hard and tell you later.
Avoid them and escape as soon as possible. How much value have been sucked by black holes, no one can know. Stock markets are full of these black-hole -like shares. Better off to trade index.
Say it all!
Property Market in China is reverting to bull run, which is a good time to invest or upsize accommodation, increase land reserves. Construction material producers will be busy again. I will invest RIO from now on.
Whilst the property market in the UK is on the last impulse, time to prepare for the tough time ahead. Unless there is a real demand for first own house, or upsize own house, buy to let is a high-risk investment now. Landlords might be better off to considering reduce their portfolio rather than to increase.
Passive house is a trend, so as electric heating. Central heating should be abandoned. Fireplaces should be kept in the traditional houses. New energy and renewable energy will be mostly well-come in the future.
I feel no difference after Brexit. Those live in big cities may feel the difference that much less European citizens are able to come to the UK without a work visa, to compete with them with job positions, school placements and free accommodation from the local councils.
Energy bills go up or not depend on the contracts you signed up for, many households are already on a capped price which are not affected by the fluctuation of energy prices.
Who want to buy a super in Greggs? I don't really care, never enter Greggs before, just wondering why some people like to buy a sausage roll and then have to eat on a busy high street with people walk passing by you. The same feeling goes to why big hedge fund cares about the positions of small gambling money, unless share price is manipulated for the pleasure of horses.
The effect of Brexit is slowly showing up, like a crawling turtle. I feel the UK is better off without those come, get and go European citizens, shouldn't make it so easy for them to enter the UK as they are less beneficial than those qualified a working visa.
I may go to a church to bless for the Queen later, but not this weekend.
BKG has a high share price, but its market capital is about the same as other builders.
Share price is not just a face value of a listed company, but it is certainly a face value, and it is certainly better to have a face value than none.
There are certainly investors who don't care face values, ending up with loser stocks. If an Aim share failed one investor and you knew it, why were you so foolish to touch it as well? I do give sympathy to those who can not afford to keep chicken and eggs, and have to cope with the neighbour's cat in the garden. You work 16 hours a day, certainly not for a cat.
Liz Truss became PM recently, but does she matter to us? Not at all. I already lost truss on governments, polices and NHS. We pay them tax, they do not actually care about us, and we do not really care about their policy. We are all muppets or puppets.
Shall we resource to the Bible? It is a famous book, like many books, you only take on what you believe. You try to be kind , be helpful, be generous, but you should not expect others doing the same to you. Again, the only person you should truss is yourself, nobody else.
What I do care is why the Queen, MPs and PMs are all landlords? And even Mr Thomas wants to be my landlord. Obviously, they know rent eats up a third of a decent salary. So why pay them rent if you can afford a mortgage?
Is Lewis Hamilton shorting this stock? Wonder how many Formula One series he has competed.
BKG has low debts, but the SP has been weak. What are the seasons for shorting?
UK homebuilder stocks slump as HSBC warns sector on cusp of downturn today.
There might be a few good years left for builders, but will certainly following years of not making profits, years of making a loss, and years of banks not lending. There are already 10 years of bull run so far, so warning signs ahead will not surprise. Those builders with low debts, high cash flow and land reserves will survive in a downturn.
Sector downgrade by HSBC - all housebuilders have slumped today
Does anyone have any idea why this large drop?
Going ex div for 22p cant have done it