Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Hi bluegrass I’m doing my best to try get people on here to go down that route.
I agree on all fronts with what you’ve said re fca, starting from the justification to using a 3m average - if using that they could have done the placing higher (remember it was done in hours) which clearly indicates to me placing was discounted for their benefit.
It could have also been done in December there was no news to prevent that being done.
So if this has been in the “offing” for a while it doesn’t sit right with me at all that this being material information wasn’t given prior to placing etc.
Fozdog. But will this be on the UK government's radar. Also shouldn't this matter be investigated by the FCA. The recommendation by the board to approve this bid does not seem to be in shareholders interests so raises many red flags as to why they would do this. How would we bring it to their attention? Can anyone contact them and if so maybe we should all write to the FCA.
Look up imagination technologies if you want an eg, this bill was also pushed from the department of energy.
It’s a good thing that they would look into this nothing to do with nationalising it.
Bluegrass
75% is necessary for the bid to succeed (including those GF already holds).
I believe it is illegal for others to accumulate on their behalf, think they used to call it a 'concert party'
When did I say nationalise? I said block the deal it’s a totally different statement! Nothing to do with them nationalising a company! Move on, you are missing the point
By following your argument; as can the Mexicans by nationalising the asset.
The UK government are looking for companies to list on the LSE not make them run for the hills.
Alnista yes they can and I didn’t say they would be however they certainly can block it. That’s what can happen when you are a U.K. listed company.
Further more they will subsequently own a controlling stake in a German mine with znwd - so unless they’ve already agreed to offload znwd to someone which is likely then the German govt might have something to say also especially given the latest European rhetoric to Chinese involvement.
If they feel this is being done to prevent a “free” market on lithium they can certainly intervene.
Ultimately there is one reason this is being recommended - our board can not sell their shares. This is their 'end game'. Secker also has an incentive plan that includes a bonus for selling the company (I can't find the correct RNS for this as it was years ago, I've tried searching - does anyone else have it?). Ultimately, Secker et al will get massive payouts from shares that don't have real value as they can't simply sell like a pi. They will probably also be kept on to run the project for a couple of years, so will not be sacrificing salary. It's completely shafting any investor who got in prior to 2019.
I have averaged down and picked up some in the low 20's and then again at low 40's during recent placing. By doing this, I will come out with profit. But it is likely only around 20-25%, which for over five years investment is fairly poor, especially considering the value created over that time. Huge risk on my part, the risk paid off on a business level but the board, who should be acting in my interest, have screwed us over big time. Not realising value at this stage is criminal. I just hope enough private investors vote.
The biggest risk I see is that many big orders have gone through which are here to collect the 20% gain, these will all vote for the deal. Likewise, anyone bought in over the last year or two will be 50/50 whether voting for or against.
M&G are difficult, they will see a good profit with this deal having subscribed heavily at 25p and 45p. It's somewhat difficult for them to sell out without crashing sp and they may see 67p now, rather than maybe 100p in a couple of years as a good deal. I'd hope not and it will come down to the judgement of one or two people their side. You would hope M&G would realise they have a big slice of one of the most important resources in the world at the moment - that's worth a lot more than a 30% gain.
Ultimately there is one reason this is being recommended - our board can not sell their shares. This is their 'end game'. Secker also has an incentive plan that includes a bonus for selling the company (I can't find the correct RNS for this as it was years ago, I've tried searching - does anyone else have it?). Ultimately, Secker et al will get massive payouts from shares that don't have real value as they can't simply sell like a pi. They will probably also be kept on to run the project for a couple of years, so will not be sacrificing salary. It's completely shafting any investor who got in prior to 2019.
That is a ridiculous suggestion. The UK government prevent a Chinese company from buying a Mexican lithium mine, listed on the LSE. If the UK wishes to secure a supply, it can either stockpile or buy a mine. Otherwise, there is no end to the economic nationalism nonsense.
They are not allowed to buy in the market without making a formal offer. They have not done so. So they are capped 29%
I’d assumed everything is cleared with govt. if not it’s getting cleared during this period.
I’d actually like to see the U.K. govt put their money when mouth is. If you got back to Dec they passed a bill precisely for blocking overseas investment - it’s fine that the asset isn’t in the U.K. but it’s a strategically important asset for an U.K. listed company.
John, yes that makes sense (not buying in market at the moment), what I find a little disingenuous is that Ganfeng hadn't cleared their actions with the Chinese government before the statement was issued. That gives them some protection from their actions "sorry chaps the government says no".
Please someone correct me if I am wrong but I don't think Gargeng can increase their holding beyond the current level (including there soon to be finalised increased share holding) without making a formal offer for the whole company, which is what we are told they are intending to do. They can't slowly buy up more shares. I also assume that if they were to 'acquire' more shares which were held by a third party that would be illegal?
Hintza
I'm not sure , but I think (please correct me someone if I'm wrong) I can think of 2 reasons
Firstly GF aren't free to go into the market without clearance from Chinese authorities. From what we have previously seen that takes a couple of months
Second they haven't actually bid yet. But if they take their holding over 29.9% then they have to . So although they could increase slightly from their 28.8% they are very limited
I am keeping my eye open for Hanwa buying. This deal is a disaster for them as GF will surely turn off the taps at the end of the current offtake agreement. If they increase their shareholding they could frustrate the bid?
Surely Ganfeng should be buying in the market at these prices?
This is just a proposed deal at the moment what could derail it from becoming a offer? Chinese politics? Spoof by Ganfeng for whatever reason?
I just can't understand this huge backwardation at the moment, I so want to top up but just can't pull the trigger.
Confused??