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The technical Bar chart was effective in revealing the position today. The current weekly price bar is showing up to be a bullish outside bar, implying price expansion. The daily price bars, reveal an bullish outside price bar, on 11/3/24, followed by a short rally, for a few days ,however what is significant, is the formation of a 3 day bullish pivot, with today forming the higher high and higher low to yesterday's high/low. The day preceding yesterday had a higher high/low, than yesterday.
So in a nutshell Stargate do you see this continue to rise?
Stargate, your system for being able to know about the future sounds fantastic. Does it have a name?
I could have done with that type of guidance all those years ago, when I bought BAT shares at 270 pence. Since then, dividends have continued to rain down, I soon recovered my initial investment through shareholder returns and soon after age 50, told my employer that I had no need to work anymore.
Without having the use of your contraception, there were no bullish pivots, or any outside bars to assist me. Perhaps just as well, because a few drinks might not be conducive to good financial decision making. I just concluded that BAT's future business prospects, as a cash generative business, appeared to be excellent. Cheap product to produce, defensive qualities against economic downturns, very supportive 'loyal' customers and holding a dominant position in a diverse worldwide marketplace.
My view is that long-term investment, mostly involves common sense, patience and having the right temperament to stay calm during market crashes. Many seem to vastly overcomplicate basic commercial concepts. Provide goods or services, which are needed or wanted by customers and do it in a manner that is better than others.
Predictive text, doh!
Contraception should of course read contraption.
Sorry.
The 3 day pivot, low of 2340.5, on 15/3/24, is a sensible place for a stop loss, which should include the spread of 0.5 + a multiple of the ATR(average true range), deducted from 2340.5 , which is found in the lse site under charts, then indicators.
Useful tip, never place a stop on an even number. So stop, summarised as 2310.5-(spread 0.5+ATRx2).
Price target is the 8/2/24, high price of 2499. The tobacco sector today broke through its 1/2/24, time pivot close, which is bullish, since the sector is already above the 1/3/24 time pivot high value. Tobacco sector shows relative strength, through being one of the few sectors rising today. FTSE100, fall today, has brought the SUK2(reverse derivative), into overhead resistance , Expect the FTSE100, to rally soon, while the SUK2 reflects that rally, by a fall.
The 3 day pivot, implies further BATS, upside, with the probability that BATS, will likely require to retrace to show support above 2400. The price
The ATR, value was 41.7, on the 3 day pivot low, and the maximum spread today was 1, making a total value of 42.7, to deduct from the 3 day pivot low of 2340.5. Since , the 20 day moving average, nearby, can be expected to provide price support, a suitable stop level, might be, 2340.5-(41.7+1)= 2298.8. DYOR.
Your premise, regarding common sense and investment, is most commendable, unfortunately history sometimes tells a different story, for instance, in the 19th century, railway stocks, were considered, so dependable, that widows, and other vulnerable investors, invested most of their savings, until there was a unfortunate decline, in railway stocks.
BATS, has already written down the value if it's USA assets recently. There is no dispute that the tobacco sector, is unlikely to collapse overnight, but then the 19th century, railway stock decline, would have been gradual.
Jon39 with charts and forecasts most Algorithms can predict the way a share can move but sometimes they can get it wrong badly. They see numbers and patterns but now again something pops out which is the A. I can not cope. This in the past has led to huge losses in Investment. They are a useful tool and can be used as such but do not rely 100% on them.
The really smart people in life use a combination of factors to invest. The T/A argument is
all ok and relies on in theory mean averages, ie the share count being the same. When Bats
are buying back shares the averages are therefore changing, so the so called pivot points
Fibulation bands, and spinning tops are no longer a guaranteed reference because the input data has changed.
Also chuck into the equation the growth factor from Non Combustables which is not quantified historically , and the whole TA argument becomes an unknown.
My view, so I’m taking my spinning tops and drawing a fibocci line underneath all the hype.
Something to think about