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Deutsche Bank issued buy upgrade today to 200p from 180p..
In April 2022 they forecast revenue in excess of $500 for 2024 and margins to have increased from the 32-36% they forecast for 2023. The latest results are miles off. And they blame China which they've been trying to get out of almost since they first listed. And we're in the middle of an AI boom they say they're right in the middle of. It's pathetic. Anyway, telling themselves these results are ok are lying to themselves.
Word!
I can imagine that the share rebounded immediately, as it was panic selling that only saw the bare numbers. But not the fact that it is due to the Chinese sales, which they deliberately want to let die due to the low margin.
This company consistently rises on hope and sinks on results. Let's face it, it's a serial disappointment. All around it competitors are booming on AI but AWE manages a profit warning. I also can't stand the way they report. Cumulative revenue over the lifetime of the company, bookings, design wins... It's all irrelevant when you've gone from net cash of 500m to -100m and are issuing profit warnings. I've held for years now and I'm sick to death of this terrible company.
Bad! But I wouldn't rush into anything. Sales are 10% below expectations, and I'm just now reading that this is being attributed to the Chinese business, which they are deliberately trying to let die because the margins there are not good.
All 10 new design wins were achieved in the KAI and data center areas, which is definitely positive.
Think the price drop pm is was too much.
lower than exp. revenue becouse accelated transition away from china
changes in expected revenue recognition of longterm contrats
stronger than expected Q1 2024 - 110 mio booking
cululative lifetime bookings over 1 billion
10 new design wins - all AI and data centres applications
Guidance prepared on a botton-up basis
"Based on the near completion of the audit process, the Company now expects FY 2023 revenue of approximately US$318m-323m which is below the original outlook for the year (US$340m to US$360m). "
I cant find any official date for the earnings? I thougt, the earnings date has to be released 14 days in front. That would mean, they will release earnings in may? What do you guys think?
In the tech space some of my favourite YouTubers
The wonderful Sabine Hossenfelder Eg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZraZPFVr-U
The equally excellent tech explainer/communicator Christopher Barnatt Eg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6mPK3QCrBo
( I thought row 5 of the table @6:09 was interesting from an AWE point of view )
Last month Alphawave did a presentation on advanced custom silicon for AI and Data Centres.
If you haven't already, it's well worth watching and there's a Q&A session at the end which always worthwhile listening to.
It's available to listen to here:
https://awavesemi.com/advanced-custom-silicon-for-ai-and-data-centers/
The presentation slides are available here:
https://awavesemi.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Advanced-Custom-Silicon-for-AI-and-Data-Centers-2024.pdf
Alphawave are a significant key partner in the Arm Total Design ecosystem providing the connectivity IP.
The addressable market for custom silicon is currently about $9.2 billion this year and growing at a rate of 15% per year.
Keep me posted!
Currently Marshall Wace and JP Morgan have open positions >0.5%. Just checked the latest disclosures to the FCA - and Marshall Wace reduced their position ever so slightly on Monday 08/04 to 0.59% - very small reduction but moving in the right direction will be keeping an eye out for any further reductions in the coming days which may mean they think a bottom is in here ahead of the results
I’m watching closely and agree. Hopefully not another debacle.
I suspect the deathly silence on FY2023 results isn't helping the share price here. No prelim announcement yet and nothing on when final results will be issued - given what happened last year surely they will want to avoid another delay?
They issued an RNS back on 13th October 2022 which relates to the acquisition of Banias Labs and the non-binding framework agreement with the hyperscaler.
https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4173559&lang=en-GB&companycode=uk-alpw&v=
"The Company expects the ramp of new Optical products to start in 2024 and profitability to improve from 2023 levels as products go into high-volume production and generate additional revenue. Alphawave anticipates additional revenue synergies given the complementary nature of the technology and its contribution to the product roadmap."
"The non-binding purchasing framework agreement defines a potential portfolio of optical DSPs, including coherent solutions based on Banias technology, that Alphawave intends to develop over the next several years. The Company anticipates ramping up sales to the leading hyperscaler over a multi-year period, with the potential for aggregate sales to exceed US$300 million, subject to the Company qualifying the products for use in the hyperscaler's data centers on a timely basis and ensuring sufficient silicon availability to meet its usage demands."
"In addition, the non-binding framework agreement contemplates the Company issuing future stock warrants of up to 2.5% of the issued share capital of the Company, with vesting based on purchases of Alphawave silicon products of up to US$700 million over the same period, and an exercise price based on the current trading price of the Company's shares, subject to downward adjustment if the Company's shares trade lower prior to issuance. The Company intends to solicit all required shareholder approvals, ahead of finalizing any warrant grants, which are not expected until at least 2024."
I've named the hyperscaler because it's been mentioned several times in posts by a number of well respected semiconductor bloggers including Semi Analysis and Fabricated Knowledge.
Hi BlueRaphus you mentioned in your last post the multi hundred million dollar prospect with AWS - have AWE issued a press release regarding this?
Thanks
Comparing the technical products between these two companies is something I haven't as yet got fully to grips with.
It's true that they both offer high speed connectivity using the same protocols PCIe / CXL etc.
Astera Labs mainly offer retimers while Alphawave don't as far as I can tell.
When high speed data is transmitted over certain distances the signal quality deteriorates and retimers are devices that essentially clean up the data signal. It achieves this by amplification and then retransmitting a new copy of the signal. Market demand for retimers has been increasing as data quantity and speeds have been increasing over time.
Astera Labs have taken the approach of also offering a packaged software product called COSMOS which is designed to work with their full range of retimer products to provide a full suite of diagnostics and telemetry features enabling operators to optimize the data transfer performance.
Software is something that Alphawave don't do as far as I understand it. Yes they offer various PHY for SerDes, PCIe, UCIe die to die and HBM. They also offer the controllers and subsystems for these protocols including ethernet. The software for these however comes from elsewhere. This is more a case of allowing operators the flexibility to select the software product of their own choosing.
If I have understood correctly, it's possible that Alphawave's high end connectivity IP products achieve similar levels of high quality high speed data connectivity without the need for retimers and hence the possible reason they don't offer them as hinted in one of their press releases on their partnership with Nubis. Or, it is simply that it's a component that their customers incorporate from another of their partners elsewhere particularly in custom silicon designs.
While Astera Labs now have a ton of IPO money to invest into their business, their focus until now has only been in their retimer range with controllers and optimization software. No chiplets or custom silicon or opto-electronic investment on the horizon as yet. Astera Labs growth prospects stem from the partnerships they have with Amazon and Nvidia. At the current ridiculously high share price however and P/S ratio two to three times higher than their NASDAQ competitors I don't personally see them as an attractive prospect at this time.
Meanwhile, Alphawave's future is quite promising and currently generating more than three times the revenue of Astera Labs. They have an array of high profile partnerships including the multi hundred million dollar prospect with Amazon AWS which should hopefully see a range of opto-electronic products set for delivery this year. The current share price and P/S ratio being only half to a third of that of its NASDAQ competitors still makes it a far more compelling investment prospect.
Alphawave has all building blocks (PCIe/CXL controller and PHY) needed for similar products of Astera Labs, DSP retimers, specifically. I believe the logic design inside should not very challenging. Any insight why Alphawave was not going?
It's CoWoS that being used in nVidia A100/H100/B200 AI chips, not Sapeon's AI chips. It is really strange to make the implication in such manner.
Thanks for the civilised discussion folks. Please keep the insight and analysis coming.
"** Jefferies sees semiconductor equipment sector poised for solid Q1 performance with robust orders and optimism for
continued growth, despite slight demand softness in automotive and industrial markets.
Jefferies favors Dutch ASML ASML.AS , ASM ASMI.AS , and Swiss VAT VACN.S with "buy" recommendation for robust Q1
orders on strong DRAM demand and positive 2024 outlook, reinforcing sector confidence.
Also spotlights Alphawave AWE.L and Aixtron AIXGn.DE as top small-midcap choices with "buy", expecting strong Q1
order intake and resilience in tech advancements. **"
From Thomson Reuters.
Yes you could be right there. The X330 has CoWoS packaging (as will the X340) but the mention of that in relation to the Nvidia chips could just mean like similar to how they have CoWoS on the Nvidia chips. It's vaguely worded as well as being a translation from Korean.
Hi BlueRaphus - I read it that way as X330 being used on Nvidia's chips the first time around and got mildly excited! However having another read I think the article is referring to the Chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) technology being used in Nvidia chips - not the X330 which would be a discrete chip made/designed by Sapeon.
Curious as to why neither AWE nor Sapeon have issued a press release regarding the deal that was done in February. The fact that it is on the Korean ELEC website presumably suggests it's not confidential? Perhaps at $44 million value it's small fry news... Still every little bit counts. Interesting mention of the X330 being used in Nvidia's A100 & H100 chips. Could the X430 wind up being used on future Nvidia chips?