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Check out the ARM chart - first years share price didnt move at all. AWE picked up cash on the IPO which will best case invested wisely to kickstart growth. Lets let the shorters sell their lended shares and than we will get a more naturally priced AWE share.
Quoted 156.75p to buy!
Made.com, Victorian Plumbing, Alphawave, so many recent IPOs getting hammered today... ugly.
Technically it wouldn't be fraud.... They just have to say the "booked" orders never materialised into actual orders.
Also they are in Canada and so nothing will happen.
I'd be very surprised if there is any merit to these allegations of fraud. The credentials of the management here indicate otherwise.
The FT article has given opportunity to shorting which has been pounced on. Any negative speculation (for any stock), especially from a source such as FT will always be used to short. The fraud allegation creates seller's which drives the price down. The shorting drives it further and creates more fear and those still holding question their investment. Some more selling goes on and the share price is doomed to decline or remain stagnant until all is revealed. If all untrue, price will slowly recover. If not, well there'll be a lot of unhappy investors.
It's also amazing to note the power shorts have over this stock. After the FT article it rebounded from 1.70 to 2.80 and there was a major director buy at 2.55. Since then, every significant fall has occurred after a major new short position. I personally think they're just exploiting fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). They don't appear to have any more negative news to throw at this, but simply by taking out a position they know it'll probably lurch 30% lower! There must be a limit to that, however, and I guess we're approaching it now.
Kinda my thoughts tbh. Also, the CFO is in London, so there is very much a board level connection to the UK where the company is listed.
If it isn't fraud, then it's fair to assume there will be an update at some point which indicates the previous guidance was correct. IF that happens, it'll rocket back up as the price now is illogical if the previous guidance is true.
Just a waiting game now either way.
I think we're getting to the point where director fraud is all but priced in. After all, we're approaching 90% of the way from the ATH of 4.70 to Barcap's target of 1.20, despite an increase in revenue guidance. But what if there isn't any fraud? I see much more upside than downside from here. Sure, few people like trying to catch a falling knife, but even if you exclude the China bookings, you've got an absurdly cheap valuation now. Subtracting cash reserves of around 400 million, the market cap is now around 700 million. If we assume full year profit of 20 million (excluding China stuff), that's a p/e ratio of 35. That's comparable to tech companies like GAMA or LTG, which typically grow at around 15%. Given AWE increased revenue last year at a rate of 125% and next year there should be another major increase (even if we exclude the China stuff), this is absurdly cheap now. I just can't for the life of me see why the directors would set up a company with the aim of committing a fraud that would obviously be exposed sooner or later, but given that the company is worth significantly less than what it would be if it had nothing to do with China at all, it looks like that fraud is now largely priced in.
Interestingly the size of the trades going through are ridiculous small.
Also memo to myself avoid new IPOs
Agreed.
Both points you state remain speculation.
120p is based on actual orders and excludes probable fake "booked" orders.
However the knock on effect of director fraud could be more severe
Barcap
No opinion on this. But I’d ask, based on what? If it’s all a con, what makes 120p a justified price? Any guess on what happens if 120p is hit?
The Tea Lady says 120p target.
Only a matter of time.
Barcap
Canary Wharf Towers
...continues. All-time lows for AWE this afternoon. Memo to self: avoid recent IPOs.
Sore one for Vic Hull, managed to turn £200k into £135k in 2 months.
My tiny brain tells me this is a massive buy opportunity think on Nov 30 the big buys thought they were at the bottom but it’s gone a bit lower.
We can at least take comfort from the fact there don't appear to have been any analyst downgrades or sell coverage, as in THG and DARK. As it is JPM have 4.50, Liberum 4.20 and Barclays 4.75. If there were something materially wrong as opposed to just insinuations, they surely would have downgraded. As for the fact there haven't been any reiterations of buy ratings, its presumably because like all of us they're just waiting to see how it all pans out.
I agree, it looks worse. Market sentiment towards recent IPOs? I can hardly think of an IPO that hasn't bombed in 2021...
This isn’t covid volatility. 20% drop after a ‘positive’ update.
Crazy.
Managed to nab some at 169.6p
...in stocks just now. Up 10%, then back down 10%, then another 10%. Markets very jittery!