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Back in this.morning. A bit of a punt but valued at just £2.75m now which seems a bit undervalued to me given the pipeline.
My main concern on the short term funding has been allayed. I’ve researched and ASH have no history of placings, at least over the past few years. I am guessing that rather than take (permanent) dilution they will extract short term lending in form of a loan or overdraft from the bank.
I expect a bounce once the funding uncertainty is lifted and the schemes close.
and down we continue.. 4.5p now..
tomtom's post on funding was a good read imho.. It doesn't have to be an equity raise with lots of new shares issued.. even if part equity part something else eg asset sale, loan against assets etc; that would be better than big dilution at a vey low price.
Whatever, the market is telling them they need to get on with whatever way they're getting the required cash in .......
...but any sort of asset sale would take time? whereas if doing a raise why not do it quickly weeks back when s/p was 6p or 5p ? Maybe even one of those Morgan Ashley pipeline deals is at last completing in August.. that would be great and would help somewhat no doubt.
I am continuing small topping up approx. every .5p down here and have added again just now at 4.5 odd p.. down 1.5k on current holding .. but was up similar when I sold mostly out around 10p … this can of course go to 4p and decently under... and I would add more meaningfully if it does..
This looks cheap but the markets are just hitting everything out there. Currently 5.12p to buy
Sorry, I meant a sale of part/all of PHL.
"After 28 years' service, Stephen Minion, one of the original directors and shareholders of the Company has stepped down from the Board of Ashley House plc with immediate effect. Stephen is Chairman and major shareholder in Invescare Limited, a company that has an outstanding loan to Ashley House. Furthermore, Stephen is Chairman and shareholder of Wildlife Group, a company which is a potential customer of the F1 Modular business and he is also Chairman and shareholder in Partnering Health, a company in which Ashley House has a 33.3% stake. Following the announcement by the Company last week, Stephen has been advised that conflicts of interest may arise by virtue of the Company considering certain funding solutions and that these potential conflicts are best avoided by his resignation from the Ashley House board. Stephen continues to be a shareholder in Ashley House, he remains fully supportive and will continue to work with the Company as a shareholder and through its relationship with Invescare, Wildlife Group and Partnering Health."
'Certain funding solution' that obviously implicates one of the other companies... so either a recall of the Invescare loan, the sale of part/all of the Invescare holding, or a loan from Invescare (makes little sense if they have an outstanding loan though). Someone else's take on this would be welcome though.
Cheers
Didn't the last rns mention they are arranging funding. So we may getva placing, possibly.
I'm happy to add at this price. Brings my average down to around 9p. Not sure we'll see that for a while but 5.35 is a decent entry point. GLA
Looks to be around the bottom now. Fundamentally worth probably double current value.
Yes I’d not consider a re-entry yet but closer to the bottom and once we get clarity on funding and closures as well as pipeline.
much appreciated Dibs. 4p doesn't sound an unreasonable shout to me.. sad but not unreasonable.. but hopefully it doesn't go so low.
On reflection I'm still comfortable small topping up at 5p.. if 4.5p I'd do a bigger sized top up and at 4p I do a considerably bigger sized top up.....if lower again I'd then go for large top up(s) till I got back up to a gbp 5 figure position.. but here's hoping for other longs sake that it finds a bottom in the 5's and then bounces..
NicetoMichu - I don’t think this has bottomed yet. New target is around 4p. Too many uncertainties re funding, closures, Confidence v low. Many people though MS would provide back up, security around finances etc. It hasn’t.
Dibs, a question If I may :
I see now from a previous post of yours a few months back that you predicted this going to 6p off the back of a H&S pattern.... good shout !...just so I'm clear, the pattern is then for this rally from 6p ? ...or the pattern is for this to continue on falling from 6p or that pattern is complete and a new one has to be given time to form ahead of your next clear view on future price movement?
Thanks Michu
a proper dump happening now seemingly/sadly.. how low this goes is hard to tell.. worry about a placing/doing a placing at low s/p levels etc.. I just did that additional small top up at 6p..wasn't that keen on doing it in truth but it's a small amount and I still have reasonable/good medium term hope here.. I'd do another top up around 5p only now..and I very much hope for the rest of longs suffering here that it doesn't go there..
indeed Dibs..I just did a small top up at 6.8 p just now.. would do another small one if this goes towards 6p.. hopefully for others long here it doesn't...I'm cautious here though and would likely altogether only smallish additional top up around his time and my position will remain small/smallish here in 2019, I suspect.. Generally, beyond those three Morgan Ashley contracts, I would wait for further contract completion news later this year or early next - hopefully - ahead of thinking about getting meaningfully back in here.
I think you’re going to see your 7p or possibly less
while I may have sold down 80 +% of my holding a while back I still haven't given up on this.. it kinda broke my heart over the five years I held but I have made a - small profit - from involvement here so far and including me conceptually liking this a lot I feel I therefore still owe it another go at some stage .. today's announcement doesn't surprise me and slowness in contract completion was raised as a concern by the board in a recent RNS .. so somewhat forewarned in fairness.. and this is a minor thing on a scheme of things, if those contacts complete in July/August instead of June.. the bigger issue of slowness of new contract conversion till remains though imho.. and therefore i'll only seriously look to adding back meaningfully in 2020 now I expect.. or I'd be tempted to add back at least somewhat decently on meaningful s/p weakness from here.. but it has held up ok in 2019 so far in fairness.. 7p was a target I had in mind to add back some.. we may not see that in fairness.. but a small chance we will imho..
Just phasing, not overly worried at this stage, not like opportunities in the market are not there
hmm, so was the big seller aware of these delays.
It’s a dirty game .....
"The sector median PE ratio is around 8.8x hence applying a notional 20% discount to this for the tiny mcap and assuming 2.6p EPS for FY20 gives a valuation of 18.3p (£10.6 million) almost double the current share price."
https://cube.investments/ashley-house-extra-momentum-in-extra-care-ash/
hxxps://www.housinglin.org.uk/News/Hampshire-CC-starts-work-on-5-new-extra-care-schemes/
Exciting news that not only has the Romsey scheme started on site implying Financial Close must have been acheived but also news of a big scheme in Havant.
Based on the approx 10 schemes either on site, at FC or recently compeleted (Scarborough) and taking into account sales from F1 schemes such as the schools and Modular 500 type projects (kiosks for Pirelli, Greggs etc), I think the Group has smashed FY19 forecasts with FY20 already looking really positive with a lot of these schemes spanning into FY20 and new ones lined up for FC such as the 4 in Leeds plus Gosport, New Milton and the 2 in Leicester etc.
Assuming up to 2.9 EPS for FY 20 and using even a low 6 x multiple gives a valuation of around 18p - twice the current SP.
I have been buying as you would imagine. :)
All sounded positive, more talking about 20/21 I liked. Okay no imminent catalysts persay but sounds like a real market share there for the taking and it feels f1 and MA are building a real prospectus for future opportunities (excuse the pun there)
https://youtu.be/Gi8xPugOWwc
Lots of good progress being made at ASH. Year end now June and Board hoping to close up to 3 further extra-care schemes before the year end. YE 2020 looks like its going to be a very good year - current forecast rev of GBP 8.1m (reduced as Morgan Ashley income flows in via profit line only) and EPS 0f 2.6p - PE of just 3.6
“We’re proud to be partnering with Rhondda Cynon Taf Council and F1 Modular to build the firstmodular extra care scheme in the county.The progress made so far on the build has been great to see, and with the last module now installed,the extra care scheme is really taking shape. Using modular construction, the rate of development is far quicker than using traditional buildingmethods, and we’re already considering how we can use this method again in the future."https://f1modular.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Linc-Press-Release-13-05-2019new.pdf
Director Buy