The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Seems most PI's have completed missed ARW and the huge potential here. Great FY results and in a perfect position to capitalise on the recession. Plenty of upside and hopefully a return to 300p in the coming months
New director and analyst Target is 228 agree with Craig you’ll make money at these levels.
Bo,
I don't know why he wastes his time constantly deramping ARW. The Q1 results were very good given the currently climate. Very strong cash position and as per trading update ARW are in a good position to capitalise from the lockdown and incoming recession
In the world is writing down it's loan book with a loan lost charge however Arrow has even adjusted the future collection amount by a £1
Devon Equity Management Limited and Morgan Stanley increase their holdings
Though as a caveat it may be choppy along the way! Short term bounce back above £1 and then medium to long term towards £2 IMO, once things settle.
From these levels you will make money.
Do we think this will he back to 252
How come this share has not stated to recover and go now back down again
Some big money going in here on the quite.
Well I’m not sure if anyone followed me in at 70p but now at a £1 it’s looking great. Don’t need to bag every day but 30-40% In a week is great trading for me. GLA hoping to be here a long time.
The opportunity in Arrow is recognising the complete disconnect with how investors treat Arrows business and how successful private equity has been and is in attracting capital and managing NPL portfolios such as Cerberus, Apollo, Lone Star etc. Investors in US S&L crisis, Japan and Korean debt crisis in late 90's and GFC made significant returns.
It explains why Arrow has been so successful in attracting some €900million in 3rd party capital in 2019/2020 from a range of international private market investors. A first time fund at over €1bn including capital from their balance sheet is a remarkable achievement and a foundation for further diversifying their business into active management where it earns management and performance fees. It is also shows resounding confidence in their business model. Clearly private market investors have confidence where public markets don't.
Q1 saw 94% of estimated remaining collections
In the current environment, business will pick up as European Courts have now resumed. This will accelerate secured collections (42%) where litigations have been suspended. Unsecured collections remain robust and mostly automated (58%) Debt is high, but cashflow before the virus was strong and there are no bond refinancings until 2024. Average cost of debt is a very manageable 3.2% At these prices it should be a takeover candidate for private equity debt managers to take private.
Current prices substantially discount Arrow's business and cash generation. Q1 free cashflow was at £33m
Yes but held off, mainly due to maxing out on ISA allowance already
But lets not forget all the self employed contractors that got a pretty big gift from the taxpayers. Saw a chart earlier in 2020 that showed most defaulted debts where with the self employed.
Just a thought
I think this was that sell order! Onwards and upwards from here
Time/date of execution Price Currency Volume Trade value* Trade type Trade flags MIC
16:35:16 29-May-2020 76.90 GBX 2,721,254 2,092,644.33 UT XLON
despite the tremedous amount of joblosses, the reduced recovery rate, italy going down the greece route but more importantly the economy moving into a bear market, their 7YR and 10YR ERC collection estimates have not changed. If they believe they are not impacted by Margrets 'defaulted' loan they purchased, who now has lost her job, who with the little she had was just about paying her loan to Arrow. Well we have seen collections have gone down yet their estimates have not changed.
I’ve bought in today too.
This looks to me like one of the best opportunities on the market for a multi-bagger. They have a temporary issue to get through with continuing collections from unsecured debts during lockdown and the risk of breaching debt covenants. But after that, with the looming recession, they are going to be awash with business. As they say in their trading update, they are perfectly poised to take advantage of the forthcoming economic turmoil as more defaulting debts = more business for them.
This seems like a great play. Good luck all holders.
The MM's must be filling an order. The volume of buys over sells is huge and for big volumes too, and the share price is static, hovering around the 0.70 region. Im not sure its a buy orde,r but could be, but most likely a sell...once the seller is gone this should motor upwards
Great turnaround .... looks like I timed that entry well. Have a good evening all. Hobi
Bought in today. Lets see how it does. Good luck all.
That I do agree on. Their chairman actually owns a good 33%+ of shares. Hence why the profit feeds down to investors as it should. Not a bunch of crooks
Kozz did you get into nbrown, up 20% today
Here's the worst part. They have bonds due? They will try to roll over those, imagine the yield they would have to offer to refinance those.
PATTV
Prove me wrong. Look at their annual report, check the remuneration, employees, servicing costs etc. You'll see they are astonishing. Ask yourself this when will you ever see big profits which distressed debt is meant to offer. Just look at the directors incentives, it's sickening
If you feel that way put some big money in. Am just doing what someone did for me, which is warn. I hate white collar thieves, and this board is just that. Just think about it £300m in collections and a £9m profit! These are defaulted loans mate, you invest in distressed debt because you get 200-300% return for the high risk you take.