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Anyway, lest my chart stuff, and the comedy on Reddit get lost amongst all this Warren Buffett/bubble/oil tripe, here's the Reddit post with my Argo chart for those who care:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ArgoBlockchain/comments/q9hiya/argo_looking_to_rip_on_the_back_of_the_current/
The Twitter link to the chart:
https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1449430675258548226?s=20
and my BTC chart:
https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1449429915858837504?s=20
Have a good one y'all - catch you tomorrow :)
Saylor on it again - whatever you may think of him, he is some salesman.
#Bitcoin is the Kingmaker.
https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1449469488496250882?s=20
Evening all.
I've put an ARB chart together - BTC chart as a reply too:
https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1449430675258548226
@bluebay
"You can read their method and criteria in the report, which is on the Argo company website under research (investor information). The valuation assumed existing Texas plans being completed (i.e. in 2022), and projected hash rate, based on an illustrative BTC price of $40k (so you’d need to adjust those assumption going forward)."
Ahhh that's interesting I'll look later thanks, sounds like similar figures being used as I would of been looking at things when btc was around $40k, so that always gives me a little more confidence if it can be calcated in a couple of ways (assuming they havnt just done a chuz).
I've maintained for a long time 230p it's time for me to get out but if there's mainia at the time and it looks like it has legs then 300p might be my exit.. I will then wait for the enevitble fund raise and get back in after that.. Of course come the time, fomo will probably get me again like it did on the IPO (my figures were smack on but I lost my bottle just incase I missed out on the a rise)
I look forwards to digging out that report later just for confirmation bias if nothing else ha
Agreed LT, best to stay conservative and interpret the results that way. We know mining margin which gives us current direct mining costs but cost of machines and other costs still have to be estimated though the current rate of depreciation on machines is now helpfully posted each month in the update. The only other big assumption is tax - this was very chunky in the half year results!
Apologies error (typing in a rush from phone)… that was meant to be 450/500m shares
Hexam I’m with you there. However is enough to stay in the conservative side to prove Argo is undervalued, without adding future BTC appreciation and all the different investments in Pluto Epic etc. I have done this in the past and posted it here, you can probably still find it, is quite straight forward since we know the margins/cost per BtC. I will do it again and repost as soon as I find some time. I remember basing my calculations in such a a conservative way that added dilution up to 400 or 450m shares
LT - I agree that looking at the PE Ratio is usually key in understanding value but for ARB it is particularly subjective. If doing a forward looking ratio what do you allow for BTC appreciation on HODL as this can be a significant part of earnings?
And once you have a number after deducting all costs and tax how do you interpret it? A result of 10 sounds the right kind of ballpark for ARB and would generally point to decent value. But ARB is growing fast so is it even better value? On the other hand you could argue that the volatility of BTC, the arms race for hashrate and the upcoming halving mean that valuing a company on as much 10x earnings is questionable.
In short doing the maths is one thing but drawing conclusions from it is another.
@Lottohopes, Agree 100%: Building confidence is the key step which is within the control of Argo.
PW Slipping mid-Oct to MidQ4 for 1.7 Exahash, and not saying why, and also saying some machines are deployed but not updating us on mining Capacity has diminished rather than built confidence.
Belief in delivery is what is needed. The ball is in PW's court.
"Onwards and Upwards" and "Quarters and Years" are too vague. What by When, and How is what the market wants and wil buy.
I think when miners communicate firm plans with numbers, the market reacts positively, eventually. Argo or more specifically PW has played a bit of poker and it remains to be seen whether that’s conscious nimble strategy or few missteps. I suspect a combination of both. Market hates uncertainty and previous track record of slipped timelines/change of plans have been punished. Delivering on time is now the most important step. Mid Quarter 4 is mid Nov for that 1.7EH. After all the talking, it’s now time to walk the walk. Imho only.
“ I think it was also close to the fincap valuation of around 240p but I don't know how they go to that.”
You can read their method and criteria in the report, which is on the Argo company website under research (investor information). The valuation assumed existing Texas plans being completed (i.e. in 2022), and projected hash rate, based on an illustrative BTC price of $40k (so you’d need to adjust those assumption going forward).
Like any growth company, it’s then a question of market confidence about whether plans and goals will be realised, and confidence in the underlying market, and competitive position in that market, and what level of forward P/E ratio would be reasonable to accept etc
@LT
"You should be looking at the PE ratio The chuz considering a lot of other things. I have posted the calculations in the past, and I believe our PE ratio is around 10, while RIOT and MARA around 40/60. If we would be valued like them our SP should be way higher, around 5/7 GBP. Need to go back read my notes and recalculate to be more precise"
Just in my head (got kids here at the mo). That would give us a comparable market cap to mara who hold over 5500 btc and (in June) had 1.9 eh with orders for 13eh.
Just not quite sure we are comparable like that.
If I get chance later Im gonna do some math and revisit what I think it's the right price.. I might even post my musing (yea you know I will)
You should be looking at the PE ratio The chuz considering a lot of other things. I have posted the calculations in the past, and I believe our PE ratio is around 10, while RIOT and MARA around 40/60. If we would be valued like them our SP should be way higher, around 5/7 GBP. Need to go back read my notes and recalculate to be more precise
@LTinv
"With all your due respect but 2.30£ At 1.7eh is a fair value compared to peers is complete trash, and you should probably not be even invested half or 1/4, IMO"
Interesting, that's the sort of thing I like :)
It was around 6 weeks ish ago I was looking at it and based it on market cap of other miners, I think it came in at around 1 billion $market cap for 1eh ish.. Its a number then that stuck in my head, I think it was also close to the fincap valuation of around 240p but I don't know how they go to that.
It was a snapshot in time for the valuation which I'll also revisit later.
I would genuinely like to hear other methods or ways of calcating it and seeing what price people get
With all your due respect but 2.30£ At 1.7eh is a fair value compared to peers is complete trash, and you should probably not be even invested half or 1/4, IMO
@MacF1
"Ok, I’m starting to be convinced that Mr Chuz is in fact a de-ramping shorter."
We are all made differnt.
What negativity have I posted? Maybe you should be focusing on the statements such as £2 by Monday.
I have stated my position amd case so many times that it gets boring repeating it.
I am 100% invested here, everything (I know it's a daft strategy to most too)
I believe that at 1.7eh our share price should be £2.30 fair value based on peers.
There is a massive amount of poor sentiment towards Argo, how much affect it has I can't say for sure but to ignore the sentiment based on what's happened the past 6 months it just denial.
Nobody challenges the delusional statements on here.. It was £5 or £10 pre nasdaq by Christmas.. It was nasdaq ipo being at a premium to the 135p we were at. Its all the 800mw of machines talk with no comprehension of the massive costs involved.
I am not the misleading one on here, as I have said many times I try to stick to fact and. Logic to the best of my knowledge.
I have also stated that if I thought my posts had Any material impact to the shareprice I would be ramping the hell out of it and making money.
Yea all nonsense , this could b 80p or 280 it’s so unpredictable and no one knows , we are due a nice spike , but which way lol gla
£30 by Wednesday…. Come on guys let’s be sensible this share is super volatile, been slapped with dilution and sentiment has waned …. Long way to go. Quarters and years …. If you believe …..
Wouldn’t want to be out of this over the weekend :)
Forget valuations, prob the best chart ive seen this month, coiled spring comes to mind
Btc at 75 80k ARB is 2.40 plus
Mental valuations and constant nonesense on this board. Not helpfull used to be a place you could get good I do from and learn now just so much rubbish . Thought I would add my 5 cent worth ????????
We opening red in monday
"If he is so heavily invested here, I’m totally dumbfounded as to why on earth he’d wish to be posting such negative replies to every positive post that’s put on this board. It makes no sense other than him being a pretty clever shorter in disguise."
Maybe he's simply just trying to temper some of the ridiculous ramping that plagues this board. More than £2 Monday? A 65%+ increase in SP in one day based on no reasoning and no news?
Ramping is just as unhelpful to naïve investors as de-ramping and managing expectations is a good way of dealing with it. I just try to ignore both but to his credit Chuz calls it out - just like most would do if the same poster was making silly de-ramping statements (which is exactly what happened last week on multiple occasions). Short memories.
@mwhite22, agreed.
@MacF1, it confounds me too!
Typo at the end !