Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Yanis many of us have experienced this, investing long term in AIM companies only to be diluted into the sea. Doubling of market cap is good, but you are here for the share price to go up. Full production will bring in new investors, but 2.3B shares will make predictions of 10p very hard to achieve. I have been in exactly your position before, and in most cases the adjustment is to shorten your holding period on AIM shares, when they give you a decent return lock it in, and be less patient with losses. There are plenty on here that bought recently at 1.30 to 1.40 and their positions are facing a different risk/reward today from last week as the potential upside movements are not enhanced near term with the new shares, but should be improved medium term on full production with 100% SF ownership. The catch is the time required to get to medium term, and reliance of ANGS management which in my opinion yesterday's deal does nothing for shareholders near term, hence the market seeing plenty exiting positions. Good luck, I hope you get your pop up to sell out, I will join in the same but watching carefully to pick my level, nothing today tells me to hurry and buy at 1.10 using my tool set.
Still a huge buy! But the bod need to fix the SP!
BV, mate, unlike you to me what matters is the SP.
Fundamentals are immaterial if the SP does not respond, and, just now the MCAP has been doubled whilst the SP fell.
Angs now has 2.3 billion shares in issue and an SP of 1p (1.05 to be exact). When I first bought in, Angs had 0.3 billion shares and an SP in double digits.
Certainly, right now, the SP as we were expecting it should have been in excess of 2p, but is not, is sitting at 1p. Why? - Last 61 million share placing, GP bailing out & now the doubling of the float.
Is this the end of SP knocking down surprises?
Ofcourse, I am very concerned at the SP status right now.
Yanis, the SP doesn't bother me with Angus now holding 100% of SBY, we should now consentrate on news flow from all our assets imo.
Looks like the SP is stuck down here for now. Where next?
Are we having bets about the LSE or Malcy interview next following the podcast?
HITS, Angus now have around £20m of tax losses, plus a company will expand running at a loss indefinately if required adding more tax credits until it's time to use them. Football clubs always buy new players to do the same and save a fortune.
In the interview, GL speaks of Forum as a strategic investor in Angus, saying something along these lines (from 2:45):
"We strongly believe SEL's parent, Forum, will want to hold those shares for a long time in order to get the value they may have left on the table back".
I doubt that tax losses can used to lessen the negative effect of bad bets on the futures market.
BV
'the SP will recover before production.'
We will see if it does from now until the middle of June (barring any likely further delays based on previous consistent failures to adhere to any given timescales).
The price also has to 'stay' at an elevated level and provide a floor before we can be happy we are being rewarded for sticking with the company during the development.
All the best
Ocelot a very good point, if you look at it like that the price was £4m with the tax losses. The new investors will also have sticky hands even having the choice to sell which is encouraging imo.
JH, GL was dying to say Angus is worth £100m at 130p gas prices but couldn't, he just said "well north of £50m so investors can do the sums. P.S. any resources upgraded to reserves will enhance the SP.
Tygra, GL did mention on the podcast that the mood is "wait and see" but the SP will recover before production.
They are acquiring Saltfleetby Energy Limited for £14.052m.
In doing so they are acquiring £10.8m of tax losses (40% of £27m) which can be offset against taxable profits in the future.
To my eyes, that looks like a very good deal indeed.
Ocelot the combined tax lossers are 40% of £50m with the Angus £22m share. So most of the profit given away by the Hedge will be offset against future profits.
You can't sell a podcast, only your shares. This will not move until GL announces first gas has been achieved and is now being sold into the market.
For all the talk of a positive deal, the market disagrees strongly and has dropped the price accordingly. I expect a rerate on first gas seeing as though our EPS will rocket with the income from selling gas.
Time will tell
£50 Million is the effective P90 value using 65p Gas price.
This last share has effectively doubled the float to 2.3 billion shares. Effectively doubled the MCAP to £25 mil.
Doubling theMCap again to £50 mil will result to an SP of 2.2p.
Very good podcast.
Well worth a listen by all.
gla
PS: the total tax rate on Saltfleetby gas production is currently 40%, so those £27m of tax losses acquired with Saltfleetby Energy Limited are worth (40% of £27m =) £10.8m (as long as they can be offset against taxable profits).
Yanis, Have you listened to the podcast because it's very positive imo.
Note:
at the beginning of GL's interview with Zak Mir (from about 1:13), he says that "they (Saltfleetby Energy Limited) have a similar tax profile to us, they have £27m of tax losses, we have £22m of tax losses, ...".
It is clear, therefore, that Angus has acquired Saltfleetby Energy Limited including its tax losses (which are highly unlikely to be transferable to another company anyway).
Nicos, perhaps it'd be better to let those who can actually understand an RNS talk?
Oktane, makes sense. I hope I am not forced to cut huge losses at this level.
If the selling pressure continues it will mean that the subscriber (Aleph?) is not holding on to his 1.09p priced shares. I don’t see why they would that though because they will be loosing money.
Yanis, you're welcome.
The only thing you've not got quite right is that half of the unlocked subscription shares you mention can't in fact be issued without shareholder approval.
But yes, both SEL (with 91 million unlocked shares at 1.09p) and Aleph (with currently 273 million unlocked shares at 1.09p, but this may well double shortly) have unlocked shares to do what they like with.