London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
What it means is MTFB retain right to use fixed dose of 80mg I/v infusion so any new generics will need to go for different formulations and dose rates which requires trial work to back this up adding considerable to any costs of entry.of course they have the full 10 years from plus similar in Europe from date of Approval in relevant jurisdiction and indication
Shakes post . Last para sums it up in a nutshell No discussion on gross profit and length of IPR monopoly. Check Ivy’s post on other bb for length of protection
Sorry late getting back to you Research. Thanks very much for your further input. Appreciated. Will continue with AMP and see what this week brings.
Regards
Liquid 1
Thank you for your post
I have been a holder of MTFB since June 2015
First bought AMP last wednesday
I believe AMP holding in MTFB is 8.51 per cent
25,254,611 shares
Source:A J Bell
Personally i use H L
Appologies in advance if i am wrong
Please all keep posting
Extremely helpful
Looking forward to wednesday
GLA
That’s it. It’s basically a case of if it gets approval it will easily multibag. If it doesn’t this isn’t worth a bean. Decent gamble in my books.
There are many co's out there with debt.The main thing for me is that that debt is serviced.If Iclaprim gets approval,there are peeps on the MTFB board talking about m/c in excess of £1bn (with licensing agreements,deals etc).That would give MTFB a share price of £3 approx based on current shares in issue.AMP's 8.8% share would be worth £88m (if the same shareholding was maintained).Subtract debt of approx £21m leaves £67m.Divided by 210m shares gives 31.9p per share.
Once approval is given,hopefully,the market tends to look forward,so you can see why,given the tight free float,that AMP moves very quickly.If you're positive on MTFB then you have to be positive on AMP.Everything depends on approval.
2017 Nov article
Drug development is a difficult path filled with many failures, why do you believe Motif can be different?
The antibiotic has previously completed positive Phase III trials, but was turned down by the FDA in 2008, a time when antibiotics were not considered vital, after the developers became mixed up in a non-inferiority debate. So with positive data and a change in attitude towards antibiotics means that iclaprim has a very strong chance of approval.
The FDA has agreed with Motif’s plan to run two new Phase III clinical trials each including 600 patents, to treat ABSSSI, comparing iclaprim to vancomycin. The trials are expected to take about 18 months to complete and have endpoints to satisfy both FDA and EMA requirements. Moreover, the trials will be run by Covance, a leading global CRO, which has unique insights into infectious disease clinical trials with over 17,000 patients in more than 150 studies. So, taking all this in to account we feel confident that iclaprim can be successful.
As a one product company is Motif over valued?
We believe that we are currently under-valued when compared to our peers listed on NASDAQ. In terms of iclaprim and its favourable risk profile, FDA has granted Qualified Infectious Disease Product (QIDP) designation to iclaprim, the first and only DHFRi to receive this designation. This means that iclaprim is now eligible for 10 years of market exclusivity, starting from the date of FDA approval. Analyst estimates for the global antibiotic market in 2020 is over $40 billion and iclaprim is a late stage product with proven clinical benefit in Phase III trials. With further Phase III trials results due in 2017 we are relatively close to regulatory filings and commercial launches if approved. Furthermore, it is in our stated aims to bring in other interesting programs to build up our pipeline.
Motif has achieved important milestones in months since it´s IPO, what is the next milestone for the Company?
https://www.goingpublic.de/iclaprim-now-eligible-10-years-market-exclusivity/
Which I did last Saturday Total debt 21m. MV of 2 assets 13m Slide MTFB price to change MV Doesn’t need pages !! Other stuff valued at zero
Jimzi, as far as I know it's going to be around 12 months in total, so July/Aug/Sept this year. Obviously it depends on the suitability of the candidates they are getting at the two sites they are running the trial in. I have some POLX from just after IPO but will be looking to add more as the trial draws to a close (I like the risk). POLX could actually end up as a more valuable asset than Motif if it is successful, and they can get FDA approval.
Research analyst i think you posts are pretty much spot on with the figures and a fair guide. A penny difference to mine (£1.15) but i was not as thorough as yourself. I was aware of the extra £4mil owed to directors as it was discussed on the motif twitter page but i didnt include it in calcs either.
Liquid 1.
Rarely comment here as used to be in here but have very significant exposure to MTFB at present.
Just to add they also have additional patent protection in Iclaprim until 2037 which obviously goes beyongpd the 10 year AVSSSI exclusivity gained by QIDP status.
ATB both here and MTFB
AMP own 8.8% of MTFB or 10 million cap equivalent
AMP cap 3.3m vs MTFB cap 123m
All that debt and other nonsense already factored in by market as price was 0.57p!!
FDA Iclaprim approval come Wednesday and this will go further with 10yr USA exclusivity!
This will bypass 10milliom Mcap on approval.
We will hit double digits -- this is AIM -- herd not here yet. Small freefloat makes it impossible to buy. Took me 1 hr on fri morning to pick sone up here. Supply and demand is crucial. 10 year exclusivity is big fish. Looking forward to tomorrow.
Know when POLX phase 3 trials will be completed? That share ain’t moved yet
warn everyone that this is rocketing on Wednesday. So unless you have a fire ******ant suit, stand back.
I bought Thursday and Friday.
MTFB gets FDA approval, AMP problems are sorted. They can sell a few MTFB, keep the dragons at bay, pursue legal claims if they so choose, yada yada.
See you Wednesday / Thursday at 6p +
Lol. It’s the way this company is run. It’s such a mess. It takes a lot of delving to get the real value. Motif needs to rise 150% before this is worth any more than it’s 1.6. Once it rises 150% we are probably worth our current 1.6p. After that it’s a leveraged rise relative to motif.
Still not there Research though I really appreciate the dialogue.
If NAV end 2017 was -£2M GBP and say income/expenditure increased that to -£3M GBP in 2018 then there are other assets there circa £14M that are not being counted here.....or something else doesn't add up.
To create a zero NAV from these figures we need an up-lift in Motif SP by 18p.
Is there something in my last post in the Motif phrase: "......or cause us to recognize a gain from revaluation of our derivative liabilities". Viz: Is Motif/AMP trying to avoid/mute increases in SP until they are ready to pay these derivatives off.
Will grab some MTFB on monday to give me a spread across both:)
Worth a punt.
Looks like alot off the ground work, has been done for the route to market (watching the proactive video from august 18).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lLN1WDnDF4
Hi Research. Great post, though the numbers are still way off somewhere. Here's a cut and paste from the YE 2017 account when Motif were also at 41p:
Financial Results:
Net Asset Value ("NAV") increased when compared to the previous year, being US -$2,807,418 (2016: US -$5,886,381) due almost entirely to the movement in value of the Motif Bio plc share price
The question is, how do you get NAV deteriorating by £14M over the past year most especially since AMP has being reducing its debt? I know you will have the answer, I just can't see it. …..are you adding something in?
Further here a paste from Motif half results April 2018:
Our stock price has a significant impact on the value of the liability and, in general, a decrease in our stock price will decrease our derivative liability balance and decrease the loss from revaluation of our derivative liabilities, or cause us to recognize a gain from revaluation of our derivative liabilities. The gain for the six months ended June 30, 2018 was US$4.3 million, compared to a loss of US$1.4 million for the six months ended June 30, 2017.
We have to bear in mind the strange world of share purchasing ;p
Look at the Flyb price, and the 1 pence offer reaction to then rising back up to..
Always like the pay for 6 apples but get 3,rofl
This is also based on Motif Four bagging. Worth a gamble.
All or nothing. This could multi bag. Or if in the unlikely event it’s not approved. It would pretty much be finished. As all their debt is secured with Motif shares.
Thats the gamble for Holding Amp isnt it;p
You would be valuing Motif at £526.3M = 8.5% shares worth £44.74M
Negative per AR1 figure -£16.3M would then = positive £28.44M
About 8.5 times the current share value, round about
If somebody were to pay that price what would AMP be worth ?