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pepemartinez
I don't want to be rude by not replying to your post but at the same time I don't want to offer an opinion. What I think is not really relevant, especially in this market. There is nothing you can reference that makes offering an opinion meaningful. What we are seeing right now is so far out there as to make an opinion on where it all might go or end up meaningless.
Have said that I'm hanging on, more out of curiosity than expectation.
TDT
pepemartinez. I think we are looking at 14-20p or Zero. Based upon what? My gut feeling.
ATB, FG
TDT do you think amc 7p is possible?
CBS
You'll find this interesting.
"It could also use an agreement with the SRB to send a powerful message to the market about its ability to stay in its position without being squeezed. Discussions are continuing,"
https://www.ft.com/content/067ee28e-0375-48d3-a7c9-2d4330a9cc34
The Chinese Government versus The Market. Now that's a fight I'd want a ring side seat to watch.
TDT
Nickel stocks in the LME increased by 1,464 tonnes today. That's the biggest one day rise in a very long time.
TDT
Remember that video towards the end of last year when RY said the TEO should be published by the end of Q4 2021. Why does he do that, best to keep your mouth shut rather than make promises you never keep. Incredibly irritating.
Please, let’s see the TEO, RY!
A while ago I had a look at the effect of the increased Nickel / Copper prices on after tax free cash flow over 15 and 20 years. Specifically I had a look at the increased free cash flow after deducting the Nickel / Copper prices that RY had used in his RNS dated 20.8.21. ie Nickel $ 6.0 lb and Copper $2.70 lb.Vague idea was that this may be the break even point at that particular time.
If I plug in Nickel at $10 and Copper at $4 ( for clarity after the dedication noted above this becomes Nickel at $4) after tax free cash flow of £3.0b (15 years) and £3.96 b ( 20 years).
If I plug in Nickel at $12 and Copper at $5 ( for clarity after the dedication noted above this becomes Nickel at $6) after tax free cash flow of £4.3b (15 years) and £3.96 b ( 20 years).
The exchange rate I have used in the above calcs is 1.3 dollars to the pound.
A couple of issues will no affect RY ’s current calculations:
1. Exchange rate - Rouble to dollar - It has moved from the low 70’s to about 120 when I last looked. No doubt it will head back at some point but probably hover at say 100. Given that wages and some equipment will be paid in roubles this should benefit the project.
2. Inflation - Who knows what the rate currently is in Russia but one would expect the cost of equipment, fuel etc to have gone skywards. No doubt it will be lower in future but it will no doubt be significantly higher. Hence RY’s breakeven point may not be at $6 lb but at say $6 plus 30%.
With the above in mind RY will have his work cut out with any potential buyer at this particular point in time.
Worth a listen.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/dir-6hxhb-12f3cb8d?utm_campaign=w_share_ep&utm_medium=dlink&utm_source=w_share
TDT
I know nothing. But my guess is that a Chinese Princeling ordered the suspension of Nickel trading. Why don't we see how much money this, and other, Chinese firms actually lose? Although, I expect the figures to be hidden by smoke and mirrors.
My last comment.
Wouldn't global thermonuclear war by so much more likely if the Chinese CCP weren't ready, and able, to buy all of Russia's resources?
Russia, the Ukranian people, and the Western nations will all lose, but I can live with it if I'm not to be fried, to a crisp, on a nuclear BBQ.
My heart goes out to the Ukranian people, but their lives were likely factored into all that is transpiring now, many years ago.
Oi - Forest Gump!
You were saying?
"Save a CHINESE firm from losing billions? No, I'd never fall for that.
Chinese Nickel Giant Tsingshan Faces $8 Billion Trading Loss as Ukraine War Upends Market.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-nickel-giant-tsingshan-faces-8-billion-trading-loss-as-ukraine-war-upends-market-11646765353
Tsingshan’s founder, Xiang Guangda, told a Chinese media outlet that “there have been some moves by foreigners,” and that it is in active negotiations with relevant parties, without specifying who they were and what was being negotiated.
CBS
Excellent article. Andy Home hits the nail on the head once again.
TDT
https://youtu.be/D0An4E0UoF0
I like the part where she say's you should have invested in Nickel rather than Bitcoin
another article from Andy Home here:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/nickel-devils-metal-with-history-bad-behaviour-2022-03-10/
Looks like Chinese been given time to sort out their nickel position.
In return, yes you can make an offer of +£250m now for Amur to compensate for having to accommodate you.
Speculation offcourse but would be funny....
just the Biden Fake News then?
Save a CHINESE firm from losing billions? No, I'd never fall for that Fake News!!!
I heard that the LME have closed nickle trades for another day.
There are massive players behind this.
Looks like it's all to save a Chinese firm from losing billions.
https://twitter.com/BaldingsWorld/status/1502031532021760004
Scroll down on the post there are 8 parts to it.
TDT someone is playing games here not? 56 shares and we are down? Time to AVG down and load with both hands?
"Are you the real Forest Gump?"
He/she is not for real. He's the board's entertainment. Every board should have one. It helps alleviate the monotony while we wait.
TDT
LME said nickel trading would resume today 11th March, but I can't see any evidence that trading has resumed, anyone else ?
Chinese must be ready to pounce.
They would be delighted to get their hands on one of worlds largest Nickel deposit on the cheap right at their doorstep.
Makes lot of strategic sense for Chinese to secure Nickel supplies for coming decades.
Are you the real Forest Gump?
I used that word because I don't want to be sued. The authors of the original investigation didn't use it. That's all I need to know.
...alleged to have...