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Can someone please explain what Alytn have planned for the next 6 years because my head is hurting!!
"operating the Sekisovskoye Mine at 850kt annual capacity for three years"....so presumably they will then ramp up production at Sekisovkoye to 1Mtpa, whilst building another 1Mtpa processing plant at Teren-Sai over the next 3 years (their 6 year plan...NOT 9 years as suggested in the latest results!!).
Capex over next 2 years is $11.4m (2021) and $4.3m (2022)....to reach and maintain 850ktpa.
Presumably in 2023/24 the plant will be upgraded to 1Mtpa at cost circa $8.4m to $9m (God only knows how the $40-50m figure fits into this equation)...."the Company has estimated that it will require an initial funding of US$40m-US$50m to attain 1Mpta target"
Almost as an afterthought: "Further funding will be required for the secondary 2Mpta target."
That's $45.7m to build a new 1Mtpa processing plant at Teren-sai PLUS the costs for developing the open pit mine there.
That planning if met not ever met with this lot of bungling clowns , Its one thing planning but another delivering so just live in hope Badie ? If they promised a dividend would you believe them ? No ,
Bald E, have have confused yourself. Initial funding of c $50m is to achieve 1 mtpa at Seki. They have raised c $30m of that. A further $15.7m of capex is earmarked for the next 2 years . Further funding will be required to get to 2 mtpa by building a second 1 mtpa at Seki. Forget Teren Sai, they haven't issued guidance on the plant there, other than to say its planned to produce 65,000 oz pa, its still being drilled to establish the resource.
"Initial funding of c $50m is to achieve 1 mtpa at Seki. They have raised c $30m of that. A further $15.7m of capex is earmarked for the next 2 years . Further funding will be required to get to 2 mtpa by building a second 1 mtpa at Seki. Forget Teren Sai, they haven't issued guidance on the plant there, other than to say its planned to produce 65,000 oz pa, its still being drilled to establish the resource."
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DofMeister, so they only need to raise circa $20m to reach 1Mtpa?....when in 3 years time production will go from 850ktpa to 1Mtpa.
If you are correct then capex over coming 3 years:
2021 => $11.4m
2022 => $4.3m
2023 => $4.3m (estimated by me as $20m -$15.7m = $4.3m)
If they are processing 850ktpa then that should probably be generating enough profit to fund the expansion to 1Mtpa....so debt shouldn't increase much, if at all. Although chances of a dividend would be zero.
I thought the second processing plant is planned for Teren-sai btw?
Why wouldn't you drive the decline down and development to high grade areas (better than the average 3.53 g/t JORC reserve), lift head grade and fund mill expansion through cashflow rather than spend money on the mill to process ore marginally better than the cut off?
They are now funding the expansion to 850 ktpa out of cash flow. Why would you drive the decline down at huge expense, which they are doing, and not process ore thats grading 2 g/t and very profitable at an AISC of c $1,000 p/oz ?
Bald E, yes thats how I see it. There are two more plants planned, a further one at Seki and one at Teren
"There are two more plants planned, a further one at Seki and one at Teren"
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DofM, I don't believe you are correct. There is only one further processing plant planned. The current plant will be upgraded from 850ktpa to 1Mtpa.
An additional 1Mtpa plant will be built in the future - possibly at Teren-sai - to take processing capability to 2Mtpa...as part of the 6 year plan.
So that is one plant upgraded and one new to be built.
Bald E, no there will be an upgrade to the current plant at Seki to 1M tpa and further 1M tpa plant constructed at Seki to take it to 2M tpa. A further CIL plant is proposed at Teren Sai. I am prepared to put my house on it, but the wife is included.
"I am prepared to put my house on it, but the wife is included."
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So the third processing plant at Teren-sai will take total processing capability to 3Mtpa?
I don't know what the capacity of the CIL plant will be at Teren Sai, but they are suggesting annual output of 65,000 oz -see the website.
From the 2019 CPR : "The Sekisovskoye LoM shows a considerable ramp up from current production levels to the
anticipated target of 2Mtpa RoM production. RoM production is planned to be ramped up to 1Mtpa
using the upgraded processing plant, with a further ramp up to 2Mtpa RoM requiring an additional
processing plant"
"they are suggesting annual output of 65,000 oz"
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Surely that would suggest at least a 1Mtpa processing plant at Teren-sai....unless grade is significantly higher than 2.5g/t
From 2020 AR:
The significant expenditure relates to the planned Teren-Sai processing plant which will be a conventional carbon-in-leach (“CIL”) gold recovery plant, similar to the existing one at the neighbouring Sekisovskoye Mine.
Teren Sai Proved Ore Reserves of 0.80 million ounces (“Moz”) - 10.20 million tonnes (“Mt”) at an average gold
grade of 2.43 grams/ tonne (“g/t”).
So yes, looks like it would be a conventional 1M tpa CIL plant.
Yes, it would be a total processing capacity of 3M tpa.
I believe that you might have become confused by Altyn's confusing language.
I know they plan to increase production to 2Mtpa. This will be achieved by the upgrade of the current 'Seki' plant to 1Mtpa and the construction of one brand new plant. I have NOT heard that they plan to build 2 new additional plants.
The brand new plant seems to be earmarked for Teren-Sai. This sort of makes sense. 'Seki' will have a 1Mtpa plant and Teren-Sai will have another 1Mtpa plant. The combined processing capability of AltynGold would then be 2Mtpa.
Do you have a nice house?!
Bald E, you appear to know F all.
Please do some research.
DofM, I'm not blaming you for getting things slightly wrong. The problem is Altyn's unclear use of language.
"The significant expenditure relates to the planned Teren-Sai processing plant which will be a conventional carbon-in-leach (“CIL”) gold recovery plant, similar to the existing one at the neighbouring Sekisovskoye Mine."
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DofM, so there is a significant expenditure planned for a new Teren-sai processing plant but NOT a significant expenditure associated with the 2nd plant at Sekisovkoye....how are they going to fund the 2nd 1Mtpa plant that you believe they are going to build at Sekisovkoye?
I have done my research. I cannot find any reference to a 3rd 1Mtpa plant or a plan to produce at 3Mtpa. It might be a possibility in the future but it certainly isn't planned for (as far as I can see).
"The Sekisovskoye LoM shows a considerable ramp up from current production levels to the
anticipated target of 2Mtpa RoM production. RoM production is planned to be ramped up to 1Mtpa using the upgraded processing plant, with a further ramp up to 2Mtpa RoM requiring an additional processing plant"
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DofM, your quote from the 2019 CPR agrees entirely with my understanding . One additional processing plant is to be built (not two) and capacity is to rise from 1Mtpa - once the current plant is upgraded - to 2Mtpa once the new plant becomes fully operational.
No mention of a 3rd plant or a target of 3Mtpa!
You seem to have factored in two 1Mtpa plants at Sekisovkoye and the mention of a plant at Teren-sai seems to have made you think - possibly erronesously - that a 3rd is being planned. More likely (IMO) is that there will be one 1Mtpa plant at Sekisovkoye (the current plant upgraded) and one additional 1Mtpa plant at Teren-sai.
I must admit that when I saw the mention of a plant at Teren-sai - requiring significant expenditure - I was confused too.
OK, this is the last time...............read page 4 of the 2020 AR, "Longer Term Plans". They are to ramp up production to 2M tpa at Seki by building a second 1M tpa plant there after upgrading the existing one to 1M tpa. So thats two x 1M tpa plants at Seki.
They then intend to build a further CIL plant at Teren Sai
DofM, it is all a bit confusing IMO. Reading the report I can see it two ways. That Sekisovkoye & Teren-sai are operated as two totally separate mines, where the target of 2Mtpa is solely for Sekisovkoye and Teren-sai will have its own target. The other way of looking at it is that the 2Mtpa target is for the combined output of both mines.
If the plan is to have 3 processing plants - 2 at Sekisovkoye and 1 at Teren-sai - then I would have expected the long term target to evetually be 3Mtpa...but the report contains no such target.
Unfortunately, IF the market believed what ALtyn was telling it then the SP would be above £3...probably a lot higher.
There are too many inconsistencies in the stories being told by Altyn. They need to start delivering on their plans. Increasing grade would be a good start.
We can argue about how many plants they are going to build when/if they ever get one working efficiently and to capacity.