The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I fully agree. ALBK is being delisted from the main exchange next Tuesday. It will be 98% owned by the government in a couple of weeks. There is no future here for a long time. As you say, BKIR is likely to do well for those willing to risk at current low levels. Government majority ownership seems unlikely and a major chunk of the necessary new capital (2.9 billion previously and 740 million now) has already been successfully raised. There is no comparison whatsoever between these two banks.
...they are deffo not the same!! What a ridiculous assumption?? ALBK will diluted to kingdom come. BKIR....well if u got da stomach for it...might well return something.
hi, baron, where are you from?
HAVE to agree but thank goodness im long gone and not to badly burnt still edible though and better places to play
Its ALBK....sell while you can. This is toast.
in very, very short time, the price must go down. but just for a few days
I'm no expert. I regard AIB and BOI as being essentially in the same boat, and fundamentally different scenarios to Anglo/Irish Nationwide. AIB-BOI can be accused of reckless lending, prompted by the opinions of the media, politicians, economists, EU, international institutions, none of whom were waving red flags and some of whom- ECB, Fed Reserve, etc- were actually contributing cheap money to the boom. But these banks were not "evil" in any way, nor can they be accused of abuse of shareholders funds through substantial loans to directors, friends, etc. In spite of the CB Governor's continuing expressions of his wish to see these banks sold to foreigners- something he has been saying consistently since he took up office- I doubt that the Minister would like to see this outcome. I suspect that he wishes to "fix up" the two main banks and return them to shareholders, perhaps with apologies for having contributed, via NAMA, to their desperate state. I suspect he'll do this by restructuring them, although a merger seems unlikely, providing them deposits from elsewhere (Anglo), getting rid of their less useful assets, thereby improving their deposit- loans and capital ratios, and then getting the government out as soon as possible.. All that is conjecture. But it would be very good for shareholders. (I imagine he can issue himself "B" ordinary shares, which can be sold separately, and on different terms, to the Ordinary shares ) (But he may not see the need to..). Worst case scenario would be to sell to a UK or EU bank. Better would be to do a temporary arrangement with Arab or Chinese funders, such as a "coco" deal, where loan capital becomes equity under certain cirscumstances. All this may not come to pass, and of course the present Minister may be out of office soon and one cannot perhaps rely on a Labour Minister to see things the same way. (But, really, I believe no Irish government will go along with the idea that the savings of the Irish people must be managed by overseas directors, and outside the regulatory influence of an Irish Central Bank..). Considering that all parties will make the greatest efforts to see BOI-AIB survive, and that both banks still have a very valuable franchise in the Irish market for deposits and loans, it seems to me that both offer very substantial upside in the medium term ((2-5 years), and even in the worst case scenario (sale to abroad).
What senario do you see playing out for bkir, Do you believe the bank can avoid same fate as aib, Do you belive gov stake will increase to 60% range as many of present shareholders woint stomach another rights and all the guff about white night investor could all be pie in the sky.
It's very rare for a share to be so clearly a terrible investment, but ALBK is very much it. It's important to know for current investors. There will be share dilution to the extent that 1.2 billion shares will become around 30 billion. There is no chance of share price recovery here.
well, i can understand people have another opinion because this is the way people react, following the price. But, Allied irish bank has touched the bottom already since the government injected money. apart from that, in some weeks is time and with the complete sell of poland bank and receiving money, the shares will go up. apart from that and in some months and working at another market, the government will rise the shares to sell again and cash because this are FMI and european requirements. in fact irish government dont do anything at all, all they do is to follow european orders. Noww we are at the bottom, so the government buy low and sell high.
In a democracy, can a government smash and grab a bank and get away with it? The Minister declared that he would put in 3.5 bn at 0.50 cents, after the share price collapsed because of the last minute NAMA demand for an extra 3 bn. His intervention effectively capped the price at 50 cents. Before that, the price had been c. 1.00, before NAMA smashed it, with no convincing reason ever given for the extra 3 bn.. (It was probably because ECB indicated that it didn't want to collect any more NAMA bonds, so NAMA cut down on the issuing of them) Before then, the bank was making progress on the agreement it had with the CB and Regulator, to sell off assets, pay the NAMA discount of expected c. 30%, raise extra capital and still leave the shareholders with 50% of the bank. That's what shareholders agreed to in late 2009. They have not had the opportunity to vote on these matters since then !!. The government has since changed its mind, backed out of the agreement, and dramatically influenced the share price downwards. The government guarateee given in exchange for banks property by NAMA- that's all we got, a guarantee, no actual payment for our property - proved to be unfit for the purpose of getting funding from ECB. Finally, the government effectively takes over the bank without consulting shareholders. That's why the price is c. 30 cents, wrecked by government policies and incompetence I believe Lenihan wants to fix things up as far as possible and then hand the bank back to original shareholders. He has a moral obligation to do so. Anyway, IMF wants the government out of the banks as soon as possible...That's part of the MOU with them. As for Honohan's talk about selling to foreigners...1. He has been talking like that since he took up the job and 2. His government owes 24 bn NAMA related funds, less 30- 60% discount to AIB...Will they pay that before selling it to a foreigner? (What foreigner will accept an untradeable Irish government promise/guarantee??)...and 3. The shareholders can go to the Euro Court to claim their rights...So, at 30 cents its a very good punt.
There is no reason why ALBK would move back to the level that the government injected money at. Investors should be very careful with this share. It's a very much strong-sell at the moment and will dive again when transferred to the lower level stock exchange
well , if the price now is 27 and the conversion is between 339 and 37, you have more than 15 or 20 per cent rise. this is in the near future. apart from that, i think that taking into account the shares will continue at another market and the aim of the government is to sell the shares in the future like AIg in the usa for example, so i believe they will impulse the shares up. apart from that, they will increase the ratio tier 1 very soon because FMI is behind that
What are you talking about? This is a very clear strong sell because of the dilution. Some investments are grey areas, but ALBK is clearly a no-go. Who wants to own 2% of a debt-ridden company? OMLOYALIST, the 50c price is no longer relevant at all. Not happening now. The conversion price is between 33c - 37c now.
last time(before budget) they said new shares will be issued at 0.50. where are we now?
well the official web has been obviously removed but its simple to find at google because is allied irish bank official web
Well i would like to make clear what i have read for the previous days. Allied irish bank shares are going to be diluted and they are going to work at another market and change at a price of 0.34 and 0.38 depending of the share. you can see it at official web www.aibgroup.com. and read the 23 december latest news. So when changing and diluted you can only make money if you buy now.
Because of the huge dilution with existing shareholders owning probably 1-2% of the entire company and delisting from the main exchanges, I cannot see any upside to ALBK in the near future. It's important for existing shareholders to be aware of this reality. AIB is a disaster. Any brokers with a Buy recommendation clearly don't know the details of what has been happening recently.
thanks for that. I missed that info. True de listing from main market is imminent but shares will still be trading on ESM. For those who do not understand Irish set-up, ESM is the equivalent of AIM market. So if you see any future in AIB you can hold. Actually some prokers still recommend it. On what basis,I dont know! thanks johnfitz
katoey i have to agree with you and ive managed to bail out with pockets lighter
Not sure about the 30bn shares but certainly the court has instructed ALBK to delist from the LSE as detailed in the press release. They will still be listed elsewhere though and I am not sure what this will mean in terms of any shares you currently hold - I would expect that to be part of the subject of an RNS.
Here you go. All of the key information is in here from Dec 23rd. The 30 billion share number is a reasonable assumption based on what is in here: http://www.aib.ie/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=PressOffice/AIB_Press_Releas/aib_po_d_press_releases-0_08&cid=1292928789869&poSection=AR&poSubSection=paDA&position=notfirst&rank=top&month=12&year=2010
I havent seen an article 30bn shares, neither have i had of de listing. raising shares and de listing is communicated to shareholders through an RNS (according to LSE rules and also ISEQ rules). May please paste an official notice with regards to 30bn shares and de listing, thanks.
The official position in relation to AIB has been made very concrete and public since last week. There will be approximately 30 billion shares by February, delisted from the ISEQ and LSE and traded on the ESM. 50c per share is an old valuation, which wasn't applied in the end and is now irrelevant.
I agree with OMLoyalist, today, 10.52. Lenihan announced a rights issue and effectively capped the share price at 0.50 cents. He has a moral and legal obligation to follow through. In fact, his policies brought the price down from over a euro previously, when shareholders were persuaded to go into NAMA on the basis that this would sort out recapitalisation requirements and they would still end up owning half the bank. But NAMA (Lenihan) gypped them, offering...Not valuable guarantees to enable the bank to source liquidity,...but worthless bonds that nobody, including ECB, would touch; and, instead of taking AIB property at an expected discount of 30%, they demanded 30% extra at the last minute. Lenihans policies wrecked the banks. He cannot escape accountability. Perhaps, after all, he is secretely trying to fix things in his recent actions. (He could- and should- sort out the liquidity and capital ratio problems, put the bank back on track and then let the bank buy him out for a token profit, in 2-3 years, leaving the A shares to benefit)