Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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With up coming drills back then, it was on every ones radar. I'd hazard a good guess it is mainly Lths who have picked up on the news so far. Once the RNS lands I expect it to grow from there and the more solid future plans they provide, the higher it's likely to climb.
Back in 2016 (prior to Brexit and COVID) this would have rallied to 3x to 4x the market cap already.
It is indeed a useful report. Don't forget that the 2 - 2.5p (or 2.8p unrisked) was based on the pre 3D seismic resource estimates of 763bcf.
As I posted the other day, when you consider the results of the 3D seismic, the valuations should be a lot higher. My post from the other day:
As the company’s stockbroker, it may be helpful to use the Shard Capital’s figures to derive valuations based on different scenarios. They published this research note on 29th Feb 2024: Is there a “big-picture” change in the cards? (research-tree.com)
In the report, they give an unrisked valuation of 2.8p for a scenario where Aminex has resources of 763bcf and produces at a rate of 140mmscfd. For a scenario where we have resources of 1.7tcf and produce at 250mmscfd they give an unrisked valuation of 4.6p.
Their earlier report from May 2023 (The time has come! (research-tree.com)) had practically the same figures (2.7p and 4.5p respectively). When considering potential outcomes of the – then yet to be confirmed – 3D seismic results, on p.6 of that report, they state:
“as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed”.
They then outline two scenarios based on different rates of production. Long story short, they say that 3D seismic results of 2TCF would justify valuations 4 to 6 times greater than the share price at the time of the report – which was 1.03p. So, somewhere between 4.12p and 6.18p.
Obviously, the 3D seismic has confirmed a good likelihood of there being 3.45tcf associated with just the existing NT1 and NT2 wells – and 7.95tcf aggregated including CH1.
If 2TCF justifies between 4.12p and 6.18p…
3.45TCF would justify between ((4.12 / 2) x 3.45) 7.2p and ((6.18 / 2) x 3.45) 10.66p
If CH1 brings us to 7.95TCF that would justify ((4.12 / 2) x 7.95) 16.38 and ((6.18 / 2 x 7.95) 25.57p
So, in summary, the 3.45tcf for NT1 & NT2 may justify a valuation of between 7.2p and 10.66p per share. If CH1 brings us to 7.95tcf, that would increase that to between 16.38p and 25.57p per share.
There are lots of variables at play here – for one of those, you may be interested to know that the Shard figures are based on a presumed gas sales price of $3.9/mscf – probably conservative.
Just a yardstick. I hope this helps
It’s worth rereading the report highlighted by gaslady, this is an extract:
“ Valuation – We have adjusted our model for the updated production schedule (first gas now
expected in 1H25) and we have moved our valuation forward by a year. This has had an
offsetting effect to our valuation, resulting in an unchanged fair value range for the shares of
between 2.0-2.5p/share.
We believe that the recent pullback in the share price (likely due to delays in the first gas
production schedule) provide a good risk/reward opportunity, especially given the future
potential in next 12-24 months, highlighted by today’s announcement.”
Yup. definitely agree
Chillout bobat, for every seller there's a buyer. Not a bad thing to circulate some stock to new buyers.
I am not scare mongering. I am invested in here. Just writing whats going through on Level 2. We should be over 1.50.
Bobat123 scaremongering?
4m shares is 0.095% of the stock.
Laughable!!!!
Calm down bobcat
I like the February2024 shard capital report...:-)
https://aminex-plc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Shard-Capital-Aminex-Ruvuma-29-02-2024.pdf
Lots of big sells printed. Peeps selling out. 4mill roughly in total. BOD needs to release rns. License rns would be ideal
Looking good team! Change is coming
https://aminex-plc.com/