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Going back to this thread, it is evident that ARA mention Oil several times in their 3D Seismic analysis. So as I have said, ANY trap that ARA drill could contain Oil. CH-1 is unlikely to because it is the same trap as NT-2 penetrates, so we know what is in it, but ANY subsequent traps, as I have said, could contain Oil. The most noteworthy mention is "Both the Karoo and Jurassic source rocks are now identified as being potentially mature for OIL and gas generation in the Mtwara Licence".
"Large structural and stratigraphic traps have the potential to host gas and OIL accumulations including, inter alia, a large untested mass transport complex prospect (“MTC”) which, in terms of structure and depth, closely resembles several of the large-scale offshore accumulations which await development."
"OIL and gas shows are noted in sands identified on mudlogs in Likonde-1 at the levels of the Jurassic post-rift prospects in the block, suggesting the bright amplitudes up-dip of the Likonde-1 well could be potential direct hydrocarbon indicators."
"Deposition occurred during the Early Jurassic in a partially restricted marine environment allowing additional potential OIL and gas source rocks to be deposited and preserved under anoxic conditions. Both the Karoo and Jurassic source rocks are now identified as being potentially mature for OIL and gas generation in the Mtwara Licence"
"The southern of the two mapped lobes is distinct as a separate prospect, but in contrast to the northern fan, the feeder channel has not been preserved potentially aiding up-dip trapping. OIL and gas shows were noted in sandstones in the Likonde-1 Jurassic interval which, when combined with strong indications of fan geometries significantly derisks these prospects."
https://aminex-plc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/APT-Revised-Resource-Potential-Mtwara-Licence.pdf
Yes RoJo opinions are only opinions. Nothing to get knickers in a twist over.
Anyway RNS at 7am hopefully.
Definitely not Jollyboy !
Weren't you ranting on about opinions only yesterday ?
StockCheque/Haggis is of course a prize plonker - he makes Tanz and UWE appear sane.
Ok so you dont want to answer my specific question which was...
What part of the RNS for CH1 relocation do you not understand?"
As for three years, I think it was obvious that it was only my opinion about making a specific exploration for oil.
I take it I am allowed an opinion?
RJ,
What part of what I've said don't you understand"? The most important point of it by the sounds of it.
All of the traps past CH-1, nobody knows what is in them. They might contain Gas, and that is the theory that ARA/Ndovu/Aminex have, but they might contain oil because they are up-dip traps to CH-1. So saying that ARA won't look for oil within 3 years says that you believe they will not drill any other traps for 3 years once CH-1 is drilled.
CH-1 is drilling into the same Gas proven trap that NT-2 drilled into, so is expected by me and everyone else to contain Gas, and I'd bet on oil shows too, because NT-2 had those and it is the same trap being drilled.
Also, as I said in my post yesterday "They could drill the whole field and just find gas, that's fine, as my holding will be worth more and more as that progresses. But if they find commercial oil in just one target, then it's going to multiply the share price." so I don't understand why you are talking to me as if I am only interested in Oil when clearly I stated I am very happy if they just find Gas in all the traps.
SC I am all for going after the oil but what part of the RNS for CH1 relocation do you not understand?
The new plan is to concentrate on the16.5tcf (re 3d seismic upgrade) of gas which in itself is recognised as a world class gas field. This was at the request of Tanzania. It is as said, highly likely exploration for the oil will take place in the future because of those shows but with gas being the priority, I can't see that being for at least three years.
If you read Ufufuos workings on potential value, on the gas alone he is showing anything from 4p to 25p. On top of that they claim to have large quantities of valuable condensate which would bring added value. The oil potential is now only a long term potential option.
Missed the 2017 video link, so here it is:
http://237880a850b57f720dfd-816ef7f212e42c7f99df6030f7ad3efa.r22.cf1.rackcdn.com/FP%2023.02.2017%20Mike%20Rego_Rego%20Exploration%20Ltd.m4v
The Ruvuma Oil Story:
Oil was seen on cuttings, first in the Likonde-1 well, then again in the Ntorya-2 well. Many Oil seeps have been reported onshore Tanzania They suggested there could be an 'Oil Rim'.
Mike Rego says the Oil was likely in the offshore deep water traps but the pressure of the Gas pushed the oil up-dip to the onshore. Each Aminex well has been further and further up-dip, CH-1 is further up-dip than NT-2 and there are more targets further up-dip from CH-1.
The diagram on this page shows how oil moves up-dip under the pressure of the gas (as per the gas seen in the deep ofshore, Likonde-1, Ntorya-1 and 2):
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Differential-entrapment-of-oil-and-gas-via-fi-ll-and-spill-in-structural-reservoirs-a_fig6_257098203
January 05 2010
"Likonde is an onshore prospect, meaning drill costs are lower and while it may be a relatively small scale project for Tullow, it is an entirely new exploration region for the company. The target is located on the Ruvuma licence and is reckoned to have the potential to hold 500 million barrels of oil in place, with estimates of recoverable reserves in excess of 150 million barrels of oil."
https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aminex-shares-boost-as-tullow-begins-drilling-in-tanzania-26620232.html
Oil shows in the Likonde-1 well:
"Having previously logged oil shows in Likonde-1 drilled in 2010"
https://www.ogj.com/exploration-development/discoveries/article/17275336/aminex-to-run-liner-at-tanzania-ruvuma-land-well
Mike Rego presentation 2013
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wY9kHxEW3SA
Finding East & Southern African Oil & Gas conference in London. 2017, oil shows in the Ntorya-1 well:
Mike Rego: “The oil is out there, we just have to improve how we look for it"
Neil Ritson: "“Black oil was seen on the cuttings [at the NT-2 well in Tanzania] – now what we will make of that in the next few months to years, I don’t know"
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/148862/industry_consultant_theres_still_oil_to_find_in_east_africa/
2017 video:
East Africa: lessons learnt and non-deepwater future potential
He also did a 2020 video that reiterated his belief that the oil is out there in the onshore Tanzania. I can't find it today though, it's title was something along the lines of African Source Rocks.
This is why I'm staying in for full field development, as there are many new traps to drill and see what is in them.
The last oil shows that were found were expected to have arisen from a larger field and migrated to the drilling location at that time.