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Danger!!!!!! ramp alert!!!!! Rose tinted goggles on!!!!
The close on Friday at 3.62 (according the HL charts, which is what I use) broke the resistance of 3.58p.
Today it has come back to test that break at 3.58p. So now in classic TA style, the resistance becomes the new support.
(It's a wonderful thing to behold and I can only hold hands with fellow chartists and silently take the moment in....)
Ok.... back to normal....
Another day provides new info, so yes the above does apply but as its tight that's where the risk reward steps in. By the time its "clear" what direction the SP is going then it has probably moved 5% plus, further up and away.
So that's why in TA you have stops. And the stop would be I guess be about 3.55-3.58p (Again setting stops is a judgement call. The MM's know where the stops are in theory and can easily artificially push the SP there to activate them either mechanically or just wait for holders to press sell button themselves), so the cat & mouse of out witting the MM's means all you can do is set them lower than you would want to avoid the shenanigans, but if its not manipulated and is a genuine fall, then the loss is greater than it should be. ....See, its not easy being a trader and we get no credit for all this thought and turmoil.....)
Anyway, my on- balance view is, this is a simple retrace to the support and it will go up from here, and fall no further.
This could all change tomorrow....typical TA get out clause... :0)) but on a serious note, my view really might change depending on what happens tomorrow, but you have to commit, you have to pull the trigger when your system (that generally works far more often than not), tells you to, even though you might do 180 degree about turn 24hours later
The joys of TA..
Good posts, thanks for the views on the charts guys and Oiler for the rig movements confirming likely spud timeline.
I just read my own post and it's maybe not so clear... so let me be a lil more concise, I'm seeing a bullish Monday, Tuesday...so far...but as I said Monday CoB will be clearer for the days ahead. GLA
@Wyndrum... I still see the chart in somewhat no-mans land with more strength upwards than down. I'm surprised no larger block sales were put thru today, but then again I haven't been watching 'Block volumes' hawkishly, as you would to keep an eye on placing sell offs. I could go thru the last two weeks of logs from certain websites...but jeez what a task, when I know that credibility is in favour of this going up regardless as we aim closer to spud.
So really I can see the pessimism in yourself as I'm also suffering from it. I'm also glad we nudged over 3.6 marker at COB..but agree with you that it was weak...BUT saying all that..from what I can see Monday should be pretty good and by COB Monday we'll know direction.
Next week many will have ticked on their calendars to buy in closer to "Spud", and the following week even more.... and final week(s) are for those who suffer 'Fomo' and will pile in. Assuming Block placing are done with, (I'm sceptical on that...always am and will be), it will dictate the rise. Due to the simple fact this is a 95% CoS play, we could see a 7p region or higher.
As always to everyone DYOR, and those who are in and weren't "silly billys", trading this and got caught out, just sit back and relax and be patient... Think i'll do some weekend garden pruning...aaaah!
wyn we havent had a breakout yet so it cannot be false so **** it break out the Bubbly anyway.. :-)
Well, I am happy that we have closed above 3.6p but suspicious it came when it did at the end of the day as it looks a bit contrived.
Now I am not one to look a gift horse in the mouth and if I was looking at the chart for the first time over the weekend I would be buying monday, but... there is such a thing as a false break out.
So, I urge a little caution right now. Having said that, again the opening first few hours should be instructive.
Sorry to be a bit equivocal over this long awaited break out but it could not be any tighter as break outs go, and the MM's do mess about at important levels to gauge the demand.
Lets wait and see how this plays out on Monday.
IMO, DYOR
Oh **** it, lets break out the Bubly!!! :0)
A close above 3.8p is where we want to be for the next leg up.. imo
https://www.screencast.com/t/UmfYzOXtE
How we looking guys?