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I think if Spikeyj won the lottery they would have a good ol moan it and have a down beat perspective on it.
We are all a little disappointed with the ADME share price, but I am sure we all have our exit price, so a little positivity can go a long way in achieving it. I am a long term investor, first invested back in 2016. I have increased my holdings substantially over the last 2 years and I do believe the management are on the right path for future growth and share holder return. There are a lot of companies that have gone to the wall that appeared to be in a much more secure position than ADME, but our directors have steered the ship through lets face a several years of uncertainty and we are on the cusp of real change and value.
Why do you believe they will do this
also in regards to comments from Toldforthat last week - 'And they also mention the % of aje, which would match if they bought adme's stake and is added to what they already own.' - i can't find anything from Panoro in relation to this
Although a sale to Panoro wouldn't seem unreasonable, i can't find any comment anywhere that gives this any credibility
The Trafigura facility is more of an agreement they will look at investing into projects if they like them
no commitment at all from them, but it is something that could come to fruition and it is good to have in the background to look into for funding - but its not a facility we can just use as we feel like some have made it out to be
ADME doesn’t have any facility agreed
with trafigura, and never has had one.
ADME has only ever had a ‘memorandum of understanding’ with trafigura,
under which trafigura has said it *might* be willing to *look* at some deal(s)
which ADME wanted to propose to it, but with zero obligation or any kind of
commitment on trafigura’s part to agree to any kind of financing whatsoever.
some of the dodgier types on ADVFN and twitter have sometimes tried
to misrepresent that as ADME already have agreed access to $100million
financing that they can call upon when needed, or an agreed debt facility,
but it is no such thing at all … zero advance commitment from trafigura.
I am expecting Petronor to buy our stake pretty soon should be the next news.
Let's see if they have negotiated the trafigura facility again as it was meant for phase 2 use.
I'm only going on petronor's presentation and announcements, it was there I found out there has been no production since November when they terminated the FPSO lease. And they also mention the % of aje, which would match if they bought adme's stake and is added to what they already own.
the two existing wells were badly depleted, with production
falling away rapidly. they are unlikely to produce much more.
(just take a look back at the year on year
production figures from past results RNSs.)
…given the above, wouldn’t it make more sense to arrange
a new FPSO lease once they have actually drilled new wells,
or are at least much closer to completion on new drilling?
- rather costly to get a new FPSO in place will little to fill it?
The next news we will get very soon is for the new FPSO lease. There has been no production since the old one was terminated in November, so when the wells are put back into production they should produce good numbers initially as the pressure has built up in the reservoir. Petronor isn't going to hang around on this and will get things moving quickly. There will also be news on the pipeline to the mainland. Would also say our stake will get taken out by petronor in due course. I still believe oil will break $200 a barrel because the Saudis are not going to increase production to replace russian oil. If they do, it will be a small amount that makes hardly no change, and the price of gas is going to rise substantially too.
it begins to look like they failed to get a placing away on
the panoro news … ?would expect it should have been RNS’d
by now if they managed to organise it this week just gone?
see through valuation for ADM's stake in OML 113 is $20m which values ADM @ 6.5p share price
that panoro news was their best chance of getting a placement away.
share price went above the nominal 1p value yesterday, so it is possible
they managed to raise some cash, in which case we will see an RNS on
that very shortly. - but unclear as yet if yesterday’s pump was actually
persuasive enough to sucker in any new money? … ADME’s reputation
in the market is understandably dire, with many folk already having
been burnt on many previous spikes and placings over several years.
? so what else can they try to use to get the s/p and volume up
long enough to make a placing possible?— clue may be in the text
of the end year results, where they mention that they are “open to
potential renewable energy investments, primarily in Europe …”
i don’t think they’ve said that before, so it rather suggests to
me that they are already trying to line up some kind of guff
RNS about a worthless so-called ‘asset’ in renewable energy.
(after all, they’ve already tried to play the “oh look, we’ve got
a brand new really rich and important corner-stone investor”
too many times for that to work again, and it doesn’t look like
the “we’re going to sell aje” joke is exciting the market enough.)
Spikryj, if i read the RSN correctly, not the ADME one, the $10 million payment is in a 30 day weighted average share price. There is ZERO CASH in this possible transaction. I grant it has value but its not liquid and is still dependent on the future development of Aje Field and the restrictions in share sales. If this is correct then why sell the interest in Aje field?. Is that not just another shell game of bait and switch?
AJE won't sell for a lot until Phase 2 is commercial
I know when the Panoro / PetroNor deal was announced, people were claiming it was worth more because they bought a similar sized percentage for $10m + potentially up to $16.67m
that would value ADME stake at c$8m + $6.5m but people forget that Panoro are getting the operators licence on AJE (which is where the real money is)
Anyway - i await AJE plans for Panoro - will keep checking there website every couple of weeks
they had already been ‘in’ mexico, & were already fizzling out
on that, before they claimed they were selling the aje stake.
old news now, but still worth watching out for that old
trick of folks starting aje sale stories to enable a placing.
Some got well and truly spiked yesterday - paying over 1.4p yesterday afternoon!
I'm sure the ploy was they were selling AJE and going to Mexico
While it was good news yesterday - it was expected (they only needed a 2 week extension at the end of June) so we knew this was extremely likely to happen this week
The next AJE update we need is on the Development Plan / how Panoro plan to cover the $30m CapEx (this was from last year so suspect maybe higher now) / updated timescales and forecasts
i don’t think the story of selling the aje stake was anything to do
with funding mexico. (…in fact, i don’t think it was about anything
at all, other than trying to spike the s/price to get a placement away.)
(but it was a few years ago, and maybe my memory playing tricks.)
meanwhile, not much fizz in adme this morning.
wonder how many suckers got spiked yesterday.
Hi Spikey, you have basically said a more detailed explanation of what i said - i wasn't invested at that time, i just remember the spike and that they were selling AJE to fund in Mexico - in the end neither happened and MX Oli were left with a high share cap and still only the AJE Asset (i believe at that time it was dormant or underperforming)
Anyway - Phase 2 and 3 of AJE is what will really define the AJE asset and ultimately prove whether this investment was worth it
I need just over 4p to break even - see the SP is back below 1p, so placing could be an issue - but hopefully we will get further news on AJE Development - i hope that all parties involved have been working on Phase 2 plans (as we were told by OSA they were) so that there are minimal delays, the good thing here is ADME have zero control on the project (were a minority partner in the project) so any success / failure on this cant be blamed on the ADME BOD
Doing DD here for now.
r0h1td, don’t you know a roll-over when you see one?
hi dan. no offence, but i think you’ve got the history slightly wrong.
this company was originally an aggregates firm, PPA, which did really badly
and destroyed shareholder value pretty comprehensively. PPA was then
converted into a shell company, ASTAR, which was taken up by frangos &
olivier with cornhill backing as a new vehicle with the stated purpose of
bidding for marginal / abandoned oil sites in mexico. they renamed the
company MXO because of that mexican focus. MXO shares did well on
the promise of that, but MXO overbid for some mexican licences which
turned out to be quite poor quality, so that MXO simply abandoned them
without developing any of them at all. however, they were able to use
their pumped up share price from the mexican bidding to raise a few
million to invest in the nigerian aje stake, which jacka had been forced
to relinquish because they could no longer finance their aje stake.
it was after the mexican fiasco that MXO claimed it had a prospective
buyer for MXO’s aje stake in nigeria (i think they said that the buyer
was an outfit called GPDC, tho’ i might be misremembering the name
slightly? - londonfish can probably correct me on that). MXO’s claim
that they were going to sell their share of aje spiked the share price
massively, & allowed MXO to get a big placing away, & that apparently
allowed certain individuals to sell out some big stakes they had acquired
in advance of that claim. …funnily enough, lol, after the share price was
spiked up, and they got that big placing away, the supposed buyer then
just melted away and MXO apparently decided to not to sell aje after all.
(personally, i don’t actually believe that there ever was a serious prospect
of that particular outfit buying the aje stake … i think it was just a spoof.)
(to be fair to osa, he was not in charge then. but i
suspect that ADME is still prone to similar games.)
caveat emptor, as ever. good luck all honest folks.
Not sure, but I think I remember reading past rns's where they said they had already started buying bits of equipment ready to start phase 2, this is going back a good while though
i remember that - i believe they were going to invest in Mexico with sale proceeds - so changed name to MXO
some folk with longer memories will remember a previous
occasion when the ADME/MXO BoD claimed they had a bidder
for their aje stake — that helped spike the share price, they got
a whopping placing away, & then that bidder mysteriously just
faded away. few years ago now, but a rather familiar theme, imv.