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Added a few today at 48.5 let's see what happens couldn't resist
BGF selling stock plus Begbies Traynor reporting smaller companies struggling with high inflation & interest rates.
Any reason for the movement?
The market doesn't report the direction of a trade, whether buy or sell. If you are seeing that on LSE or ADVFN it's just their algo 'guessing' based on comparing the trade price to the mid price at the time of the trade.
If the Director's had pre-agreed a sale with IIs then both sides would go through at the same or close to same price (allowing for fees). That price would almost certainly be a slight advantage to the IIs at below mid-price and therefore, potentially, all displayed by LSE as a sale.
If it was an extra 4m sells that day, 5% of entire shares in issue, I'm sure that would have crashed the SP and yet it only moved within normal volatility. My IG feed is only showing around 100k shares traded that day, fairly normal volume, again suggesting the 4.2m was done as a pre-agreed transfer.
Or not, we may never know.
If you look back on the day there were 8Million plus shares sold that day. It said in the RNS 4.2 million by Founders but there were other big sales buy?
I thought it was 4.2 million shares, per that RNS on 5th May?
There were over 8m shares 'traded' that day, way more than normal, so the other 4m odd could be the take up by IIs same day by prior agreement? Maybe just not clear in the RNS that was happening that way.
Agree writer's strike is likely keeping a dampener on the SP, but it's just been trading sideways for 2 months so no real drama.
I wonder if I get an answer to my question I put forward for the AGM today. Why did the FOUNDERS and BOARD sell 8Million shares on the pretext of Financial Institutions waiting to purchase but we have had no big financial Instructions purchasing since their RNS on 5 May. I put it that the sales were because of the Writers Strike in the USA as Rivaldo put on this blog on 4May2023 as the reason he was selling all his shares in ADF.
There’s no doubt that shareholders were hoodwinked by the BOARD OF DIRECTORS &FOUNDERS when their excuse for selling 8 Million shares in one day was to make room for Financial Institutions!!! They filled their bank accounts and were laughing at us all the way to the Bank. I think the powers to be should investigate the BOARD & FOUNDERS. All us shareholders were ripped off.
A couple of £20000 buys gone through in last 30 mins!!!!
I think this is a case of how the ADF Board and Founders screwed their shareholders by loading up their Bank accounts especially after Rivaldo posted why he was selling owing to the USA writer’s strike. To post their decision to sell because of Financial Institutions could buy, well where are they the got 8 Million they can buy. To me it’s sounds like the Founders and Board have sold us down the RIVER while they filled their Bank accounts.
I am beginning to think we have been taken for a ride by the founders of ADF! The excuse for their sell off of nearly 8 Million shares was because FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS could purchase as there was a shortage of shares. Beginning to think that what ever the ADF Board says you can take with a pinch of SALT!
We are still waiting for the Financial Instructions to come forward and buy the 8 Million shares that were sold recently buy the Company founders!! Was it an excuse to sell!!!!
Hi 20York back up and running on General Chat.
Hi Swanny01 RACING BLOG is there only it has not been working since Saturday when the site was down for maintenance, I'm sure Harry has posted to it and got the same results as me, the post does not appear and you get diverted back to the first page. good luck with ADF, I am a holder.
Hi Swanny01 RACING BLOG is there only it has not been working since Saturday when the site was down for maintenance, I'm sure Harry has posted to it and got the same results as me, the post does not appear and you get diverted back to the first page. good luck with ADF, I am a holder.
York I can’t get on RACING BLOG. As 8million shares were sold last week for Financial Institutions to buy. They are very slow taking up the shares at the moment.
Hi Harry
With 8 million shares sold yesterday with several million by the founders to make room for Institutional Investors ,to come on board as shares were short on the market. Hopefully now these sold shares will be snapped up very quickly and get back to its real value. I was restricted on my top up last week so I know there was a shortage in shares.
I continue to believe that ADF are a good company and probably very cheap on fundamentals.
However, I'm always open minded, and I believe the recently launched US writers' strike could do quite a degree of damage to productions in the UK. The last such strike (a long time ago!) continued for some time, and I remember British writers, directors etc being extremely supportive of their American brethren and causing a lot of difficulty over here.
Given my caution I've been selling (with some difficulty!) what was a decent holding here since my last post in a number of chunks to protect a small overall profit, with the last sales first thing this morning. This has dropped the share price somewhat, so apologies.
There's an article here about how UK productions may or may not be affected. Maybe I'm being over-cautious - H1 results should still be at worst decent as the period is already two-thirds through - but it's often better to be safe than sorry, especially where I have a reasonably sized holding:
Https://whynow.co.uk/read/how-does-the-wga-strike-affect-the-uk
Cenkos have raised their forecasts for this year. They now see £6.1m PAT this year (increased from £5.0m).
They also now see 7.6p EPS this year (raised from 6.3p EPS), with tax benefits of cap.ex continuing.
Their new forecast for next year is £7.6m PAT and 9.6p EPS.
That's a P/E of 7.9 falling to 6.25.
The dividend is also forecast to rise to 2.3p and then 2.9p. So a pretty decent divi yield too.
They see £10.6m cash generated from operations, rising to £12.6m.
Yeah all looking very good. Great that H2 delivered on the promised margin improvements. Gives us an annualised PBT run rate right now of 6m PBT if you assume a continuation of H2 with no growth.
Considering they made a significant acquisition mid period that is performing in line with expectations then we should easily exceed 6m PBT not including any organic growth.
The major caveat remains that these aren’t positive cash flows until the capex program is completed.
All in all a great story so far that is being executed well. Nice to hear them trumpet the moat they have with regards to barriers to entry for any newcomers. Genuine moats are hard to come across in small caps but I believe ADF has a legitimate claim.
Results out today for 2022 are well ahead of expectations...and the 6.1p EPS puts ADF on a historic P/E of just 9.6 at 58.5p.
Above all, the outlook for this year sounds very positive, with momentum continuing from the terrific H2 last year:
"Following a strong end to FY22, we have continued to trade positively in the new financial year, with an expanding order book and considerable momentum across the whole business."
The £8m adjusted EBITDA compares to the £7.8m forecast, and £4.6m PBT is well ahead of the forecast £4.3m.
The 6.1p EPS compares to just 4.6p EPS as forecast, and is helped by the absence of a tax charge this year, but would still be nicely ahead anyway given the above.
Plus there's a 1.36p dividend for the year, so a pretty decent yield at 2.3% for a growth company.
"Rishi Sunak hails Netflix’s $6bn spend in UK as new shows are revealed
Rishi Sunak has hailed the impact of Netflix on job creation in the UK as the US streaming service said it expected to have spent almost $6bn making TV shows and films in Britain in the four years to the end of 2023. It now spends $1.5bn a year on new productions, up from $1bn in 2020 and the $500m ploughed into 50 shows and films the previous year. The BBC spent £1.8bn on making shows last year. Anne Mensah, Netflix’s UK vice-president of content, said that the business would end up having invested 50% more over the four years than the $4bn initially projected":
Https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-hails-netflixs-6bn-spend-in-uk-as-new-shows-are-revealed-jd8tk3s07
Good move up today hopefully will continue until 2May 2023 when last year’s financial statement is released.
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/facilities-by-adf-ADF/share-news/Facilities-by-ADF-plc-Notice-of-Results/90798443
Remember that ADF delivered a very good H2, and 2022 results will therefore be nicely in line with expectations of 4.6p EPS.
The £7.9m EBITDA was actually slightly ahead of expectations (£7.8m).
Most importantly, the outlook in the trading statement was very confident and supports the 6.3p EPS forecast for this year.
In which case the current 59.5p share price appears to offer extremely good value.