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The evaluation of the extremely accurate Geological model against the found oil gives much confidence in Anglo targeting for the sidetrack.
https://wiki.aapg.org/Risk:_expected_value_and_chance_of_success
It would be very useful to gain Tiptop/other experienced sector PI objective views on what the revised CoS could be now for Djeno re entry, or indeed if this is relevant calc for the sidetrack success at this stage.
“For exploratory prospects .. the recommended procedure is for the geotechnical professional to express his or her confidence independently in four critical geological aspects of any prospect:
1. What is the probability (or confidence) that reservoir rock is present, of sufficient porosity and permeability to be productive, and in some minimal thickness and extent sufficient to contain detectable (i.e., measurable) quantities of mobile hydrocarbons, or to tempt a prudent onshore domestic operator to attempt a completion?
2. What is the probability (or confidence) that the geological structure of the reservoir objective is, in reality, essentially as represented on maps and cross sections?
3. What is the probability (or confidence) that hydrocarbons are present in the subsurface geological environment such that the prospect has had access to them in some quantity to provide at least some modicum of hydrocarbon charge?
4. What is the probability (or confidence) that a sealed trap exists, based on the lithologic combinations and structural configurations depicted, and that the trapping configuration was already formed when hydrocarbons were migrating into the area of the prospect?
Djeno chance of success, from Djeno unchained Finncap note pre drill:
Reservoir 80%
Trap geometry 70%
Charge 50%
Seal 90%
Chance of success pre drill was assumed at = .8 x .7 x .5 x .9 = 25%
So if no cap installed as per Schlumberger advise, and AAOG produced back in April from the top Djeno – possible as oil is coming to surface without lifting under gas pressure - would CoS therefore have been 100%? its just flow rates after that for commercial evaluation.
Therefore CoS is a different evaluation now, as the sidetrack goes back in within 100m of the original found 12m oil column, the Geological questions are answered to a fair degree, is it just reservoir scale that needs to be proven such that the drill perforates Djeno again?