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Slow motion stuff here, nothing happening yet drifting down on fresh air
Last RNS was nothing more than an holding statement to take pressure of for rest of the month. First week in December will be next one saying rig on contract till end March 2020 so earliest spud date will be mid April.
Licence news won't be till January IMO, just a hunch.
Meanwhile back in red territory for yet another day.
I think most are aware of the possibility and that is the reason for the drop on Friday. It is mainly reflected already in the SP therefore if confirmed there will not be much more of a decline.
However if it does turn out the rig is available for January will see an instant rerate IMO
GLA
Just look at volumes. They are incredibly small and MMs dropping it on any net sell volume. In other words nobody is selling big time and cause is mainly ISA funding which we all know about. This will swing rapidly the other way when rig date confirmed (hopefully Q1 - which we will know by end of Nov). Remember a few weeks ago somebody bout a few multiples of 100k shares and we shot up nearly 20%. This will remain volatile until something substantive is known, but serious investors should remember Miton recently bought in at 5.2p. As an investment fund of some standing, one would hope they knew what they were doing and would have been well appraised of plans before throwing in a few million pounds.
Well Washers my viewpoint is slightly different. There will be many holders that bought expecting a 2019 spud, or close to it, who are now underwater and holding on hoping for confirmation before the end of November that the spud will be in Q1. If they get it they will likely hlld on. If they get the opposite, that the spud is likelyvto be in Q2 they may well not!! Biye the bullet and take the hit with a view to buying back in 4/5 months time.
The alternative is to sit and warch their loss escalte over the intervening period. Unless you believe TipTops view that there will be a number of materially positive announcements in the unterim? There are a few possibilities but will any of them be sufficient to stem the tide?
CrustyPete if someone invested for the possibility of 2019 drill then they would have done their research and know that selling now will be at a loss. Far better to hold rather than go rainbow chasing. There is still news on license to come, no one is sure when so to be out when that lands would be a mistake IMO
News before 30th on drill is also a possibility.
GLA
Indeed wasnhers that is certainly one opinion and one that I personally subscribe to BUT I am not sure that all investors will be similarly persuaded of that approach....