Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Don't get me wrong I think the dividend is great, I just think it is what it is and people know about it. So it's a good signaller, but in the same way that the cheap valuation/good cashflow is etc. In my view - I've never been a dividend investor, more reasonably valued quality, value, or in the case of mining stocks, value/momentum ;)
"the dividend I am confident on."
The dividend alone ought to push the price higher, and perhaps it is - ex div is still a month away (2nd July) - but as you say, that isn't the main attraction here. Nevertheless, when half of the FTSE100 have cancelled, or announced future cancellations, the divi here is something of a rarity, and offers a considerable buffer against any downside risk.
I think you've read more on it than me though I think their financial position has improved and the SP is up about 50% too.
Agree free float is small - there's quite a few institutions outside of Bharti holding and they don't really trade ie Softbank, Temasek.
Not complaining about the rise today but can't see much reason for it. Despite decent market cap I reckon the true free float is quite small (Bharti & sovereign wealth unlikely to trade much) hence the volatility. Might be some algos doing their mischief. Parent Bharti Airtel is suffering from intense competition from Jio in India and hence needed to raise funds from AAF IPO. Whether they sell at current levels depends on their debt servicing needs.
Haha thanks BBD. I mainly invest on valuation so agree on that but the dividend I am confident on. Would not make sense to pull it now, they had the chance. Would just look amateurish which I'm sure they don't want. Plus parent company will be happy to have the cash.
OKFN - hope so!
Thanks for confirming that UK, understood, and congratulations on pest control. I think the upside of AAF is the profitability and growth, which seem relatively unimpeded so far. The SP action doesn't reflect that though, which always leads to suspicion that there may be some bad news known only to insiders. Often it turns out the price is down for other reasons, or none at all! In the meantime, the dividend is extraordinary. Someone suggested it might get pulled, but that seems unlikely unless there are dramatic developments, since it has only recently been announced.
Yes that's what I mean BBD.
There was a secondary holding I didn't look into so you're probably right. Backs up that point on maybe they'll buy out the rest even more perhaps. Though I never invest purely for m and a.
To be perfectly clear, what you are describing seems to be the possibility that shareholders will SELL existing shares rather than a "PLACING" of new ones?
I think you are hugely underestimating the Bharti families holding in AAF. It is (or was) " approximately 66.43% of the Company's issued share capital" according to the FT:
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-14329287-36Q9AA1KOAFTPNGHE5H720QRKV
Seems our ill-mannered friend has been removed btw, sorry for all that but I have a rule of not giving into bullies/trolls. Keeping an eye out for the reincarnated account but hopefully we can move on.
Great that the share is up so far today.
BBD - hi, yes I meant a placing from owners or less so from directors (whose lockup ends after 12m). But as I said in one of the posts I don't think that should be the base case given the price. My original point was I saw it as a downside risk but invested as the share price hopefully captures it (or more).
What I posted yesterday to the upside is the flip of that and I think quite interesting i.e. Bharti now being 25x AAF value vs. 10x at the time it disposed of it. At 50% holding it could be a natural buyer if they think market is valuing it incorrectly?
Stoic - yes and I thank you for proving my point so thoroughly.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/441189-mike-rabe/28602-15-ways-to-spot-stock-discussion-board-rampers
3. They attack those who disagree with their lofty predictions. They cannot back up their arguments with a rational discussion, so they resort to petty name calling and telling others who disagree with them that they are "full of it."
4. They are not open minded. You cannot have an intelligent discussion with these types. They will do whatever they can to discredit those who disagree with them by spreading false information. They are very often antagonistic.
Afternoon AAFstronauts! What do you mean by a "secondary placing" UK? There hasn't been a placing so far (unless you count the enforced Malawi spinoff), just an IPO. The share lock-up period was for 180 days after IPO, so that's long gone. Do you mean a secondary offering, where the main shareholders sell off some of their stock, or perhaps where more shares are issued? I can't see a reason for either of those, although AAF do lag behind rivals in most of their markets, so perhaps you are hinting at potential investments to increase market share?
The severe fall in price since IPO may make AAF attractive for the parent company to buy back, but it is surely far too early for that when they are just getting started?
Again you've proved you just want a fight when I've again tried to move things on.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/441189-mike-rabe/28602-15-ways-to-spot-stock-discussion-board-rampers
4. They are not open minded. You cannot have an intelligent discussion with these types. They will do whatever they can to discredit those who disagree with them by spreading false information. They are very often antagonistic.
:) Hopefully we can discuss the stock and thought I'd draw attention to my post from last night. Interested if anyone has any thoughts on the last point:
Thanks OKFN. So here's my thought. The majority shareholder is still Bharti Airtel at over 50%. On the downside as I mentioned is the risk of a secondary placing of stock into the market. As I've said, hopefully that won't occur now given current price levels.
On the upside, it could be a natural buyer for the company. When it was spun out last year the market cap on Bharti was on my calcs (v quick so feel free to reperform) about c.10x that of AAF, now it is c.25x.
Ha Ha Haa.... Loving it lol