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Still dont know what youve seen before jep,been watching too much Bill Murry?
smalltrader, you make some interesting points and there is a lot of what you say that i don't disagree with and in fact where I agree with you. For examle, Tesla clearly has a good product that people want
However it is the valuation "bit" where i don't agree. You compare Tesla to Apple . Apple's PE i think is is currently less than 25 and the shareprice never got so far away from reality as Tesla's has become.
Jep has instead put forward a very compelling case as to why that is. You smalltrader will be right until you are wrong.
Jep Eileen and Chump
Lets assume you are correct and the market has a hissy fit and share prices collapse. How much do you think Teslas share price will decline 25%, 50% more?
What will happen to Tesla if that happens. They have small debts around 10 billion and about 15 billion in cash the Grunheide and Austin factories are more than 85% complete so not much more capex required there, they are currently producing cars at a run rate in excess of a million per year and selling everything and still getting longer waiting lists.
Now compare and contrast with GM and Ford both of which have more debt than they are worth saddled with ICE vehicle plants building very low margin vehicles and trying to catch up with EVs which cost them more to make than they can sell them for (practically noboddy is going to buy an inferior EV to a Tesla at a much higher price). So who will go bankrupt first?
When Tesla have ramped up the new factories (very soon open by year end and quickly from there) they will be able to reduce the price of their vehicles (through new innovations like mega cast under-body parts, stainless steel bodies, 4680 battery cells) or will make really high margins or a combination of both.
Tesla do not need to raise more capital so a drop in share price would be far less catastrophic than for the opposition and the likelihood of it leading to bankruptcy for Tesla IMO very slim chance.
Dog, food for thought thanks.
but regarding "new factories (very soon open by year end "
Do you want a wager that Tesla Berlin will not be open by year end 2021 ?
Dog: "Now compare and contrast with GM and Ford both of which have more debt than they are worth saddled with ICE vehicle plants "
Dog, Here is what Ford is actually doing: "Ford: electric vehicle race gives shares a jolt "US carmaker’s stock price has more than doubled since arrival of new chief with big plans for electric products. Ford plans $11bn electric pick-up truck investment with battery maker SK, Plants in Kentucky and Tennessee would employ almost 11,000 workers as carmaker pursues emissions goal"
Eileen's TakeAway: IMHO the Tesla CyberTruck is a whiteElephant. I cannot understand why anyone would buy that hideous looking thing . Even if it actually becomes a reality as it is looking more and more like a typical Elon bluster project that won't meet it's deadlines. Ford will eat Tesla's lunch on trucks.
SmallTrader "Polestar SPAC? If you believe in that SPAC then go and invest but I can assure you that there will not be any demand for their shares."
SmallTrader, here is the alternative view on PoleStar:
"Polestar/Geely: electric vehicle maker offers challenge to Tesla: Swedish group’s ability to increase production quickly adds sparkle to its investor pitch"
Eileen
Dog, Here is what Ford is actually doing: "Ford: electric vehicle race gives shares a jolt "US carmaker’s stock price has more than doubled since arrival of new chief with big plans for electric products. Ford plans $11bn electric pick-up truck investment with battery maker SK, Plants in Kentucky and Tennessee would employ almost 11,000 workers as carmaker pursues emissions goal"
I'm sure they do have big plans and apparently they have over 120,000 pre-orders for the electric F150 when are these plans going to eventuate between 2025 and 2030. They plan to launch the vehicle for sale in spring 2022 and have 'doubled' the number they will make to 80,000 in the first year. Ford are not saying how much if anything they will make producing it and of course we will be seeing the Osbourne effect on their profitable ICE F150s and as that is pretty much the only vehicle they make money on currently I doubt they will be rushing to produce the electric version even if they can source enough batteries.
You want to know who will buy the Cybertruck well fleet owners spring to mind first, they will not be worried what it looks like if it is 30+% cheaper to run and virtually maintenance free ditto self employed contractors and then hordes of fan boys because it will be fantastic value starting at $40,000.
It’s seems to me that the competitive advantage that Tesla have is that they don’t need to build ICE cars. 100% focus on business that’s going to drive revenue growth going forwards while all the other manufacturers are scrabbling around trying to find chips for their ICE dog products.
I’ve had two BMW orders adjusted today. One where they can’t supply the tech plus and another where they can only supply the lumbar support to either the driver or passenger side ….
Dog, "You want to know who will buy the Cybertruck"
Dog, and when will they get their CyberTruck, and when were they promised delivery by Elon of their CyberTruck
( btw, do you realise EV engines aren't even suited to trucks and lorries. The power ratio required for the loads for such vehicles can't be met by battery technology and is better suited to ICEs . Conclusion EVs won't ever conquer this market 100% )
I think Dogberry is on commission or Tesla's payroll to promote Elon and his Ponzi schemes. Surely you must rationalise at some point and think about all the facts and figures presented before you. Tesla is the torch bearer for this hyper inflated asset bubble about to burst. I would like to see Tesla conquerer the the trucking industry, even the SUV market will do, just to prove the critical side wrong. As pointed out, the demands of a heavier class of vehicle on power are much more difficult to meet than a regular saloon or small passenger vehicle. The big cybertruck with its cartoonist appearance will be delayed into the etheric realm and even if does come out, it will be largely compromised and not what was Initially promised by Elon.
Whens it going to burst Chuma?
Chump
I am only invested in Tesla not working for it.
I did look up Charles Ponzi, interesting character very charismatic and a phenomenal salesman. However he never did anything in the investment in currency speculation that the money he raised was allegedly going into. You can easily see what Mr Musk is making almost every time I go out and building courtesy of numerous fan boys with drones on youtube.
I expect the Semi will come out in limited numbers next year when they will have more batteries available because with the demand for Model Y and Model 3 making Semis makes no sense when battery constrained.
Oh Eileen if you only knew
Diesel Electric trains are pretty large and very heavy and electric motors have no difficulty shifting them.
As for trucks well some companies Volvo included already are making them with electric power trains I have attached a video of a very large heavy duty electric dumper truck. https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a28748306/worlds-largest-electric-vehicle-dump-truck/
Koffee
I should not really post this it could cause some shorters apoplexy but it shows a very well reasoned argument backed by the figures from a very well qualified commentator (check his credentials on linked in) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFiKy_WLxGo
"EV start-up Lucid says production of its first cars for customers is underway, with deliveries scheduled to begin late next month."
Another competitor for Koffee not to worry about
Dog "Oh Eileen if you only knew"
If only I knew what ?
(btw that article seems to confirm that indeed "serious work is done by ICEs". )
Ah yes Lucid,the little run around everyone can afford.
At the moment in London its all Tesla,and next year as usual Ill be in London for 6 odd months and lets see how many Lucid I spot.
As you're a shorter Eileen I'm sure Lucid is far the better option for you.
Thanks for all the links and sensible comments Dogberry,now winter is looming I'll have a bit more time to catch up on eberything in more detail.
On a tangent,a client of mine has got rid of his fancy car in favour of a Tesla (blue with white interior)and have been promised that I can take it for a spin as I've never drove one.
My client says its a fantastic drive yet it'll be great to give a review on my own personal experiance.
Koffee
Take it for a spin but bare in mind that once you have tasted the cream you will not want to go back to skimmed milk. I am on my second EV and ICE vehicles just do not compare.
Eileen
You wrote 'btw, do you realise EV engines aren't even suited to trucks and lorries'
I did not realise that because it is patently and demonstrably untrue. Electric motors are extremely powerful maximum torque available immediately on activation which is why they use electric motors to drive trains and ships.
Eileen
The Lucid Air is a fabulous vehicle and so it should be at $178,000 you could buy the most expensive Tesla Model S Plaid and a Model 3 or Model Y and still get change.
Believe me Dogberry,the gut wrenching pallava getting from London to Lancashire weekend gone was not a pleasant one as it took me half a day in London trying to get diesel and two service stations later to finally get diesel as I was on empty.
Not quite sure what would have happened if that station was dry as I wouldnt have had enough fuel to leave and would have been stranded.
After 2 hours in queue all that was whizzing through my head was BUY AN EV BUY AN EV BUY AN EV EV,,,
"When is the bubble going to burst?" You asked Koffee. Well ....how long is a piece of string? It could happen anytime. Guessing when this leveraging scenario will come to an end is not necessarily the aim of the game. The aim is to position assets in alignment with fundamentals and to have a realistic economy that works in tandem with a stock market that is not over inflated with cheap money from insane fiscal policies. Robert Kiyosaki was speculating that the crash could come in October but he is one of many other people throwing wild guesses at the wall and hoping to get lucky enough to say I told you so. The next economic depression seems to have already began as the scapegoat has been chosen. China was the scapegoat for coronavirus and now Evergrande is adding as the catalyst for the next great depression trigger. China will be blamed regardless and we already have so many other gravy trains crashing and adding to the problems. We have the threat of inflation not being transitory, the threat of a deflationary deleveraging, the threat of an inflationary deleveraging and a whole host of other issues that threaten economic stability and the stock market will be like Swiss cheese when it's all set and done. Timing is everything but planning is a must. Tesla will be a souffle under a hydraulic press when the pressure starts. Chamath exited his Tesla positions and Cathie is unloading quietly whilst claiming to be using the funds to rebalance the outflows of her ETFs and investments and to ship around for discounts. In an inflated asset bubble? Discounts? Where?
So you havnt a clue then Chuma,do you reckon jep knows?,,as he's seen it all before etc.
lol koffee, when Dog and yourself charge your EVs , how was the electricity generated btw. (Gas , Coal, Oil)