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Seems like a buy to me but something does not add up. I have been adding at these levels (14p) and expect 22 to 24p later this year. By the time it actually starts mining I'd expect 40p.
Am I reading this wrong. I mean, I half expect a low ball offer from Newcrest and SD and a select few of his team to become part of a new department within that company. The holders on that board are so in love with the story that they don't want it to end that way and so are incapable of believing it.
Any thoughts and especially is it a buy???
Whats your thinking Bojo. I am pretty hopeless with miners and so I tend to stay away. Saying that I am tempted with GGP. The only thing stopping me right now is that low ball offer for 5%, which would then set the valuation for their 25% interest as it stands.
Right now they have 4 million ounces in their resource, the question is that whether they will use this or will they update the resource estimate and use that for valuation. There has been no guidance from Company way or another, so its hard to say. Secondly the speculation is what $ per ounce will they pay, it could range from $90-$300 or more, someone more versed in mining share can perhaps comment on this. All I know is that with current mcap of around $800 million I make it that they need at least $160 million for the 5% to justify the current mcap and anything less then you might see the SP drop.
also I should have added for the bull case and why I am tempted is that if the updated resource figure comes out to be quite high and is used for the valuation then we should see the SP at least 50% higher than it is now.
I think it comes down to wether SD is a Newcrest man or Greatland man? Going forward if SD and Co were offered a deal to work for Newcrest would they take it. Are they already on board? I think the market don’t trust SD. Can’t prove anything but I don’t see private investors as being high priority.
I could have things wrong and maybe SD is a man of integrity but it Greatlands future rests in his hands. I appreciate he is only CEO but he will influence this greatly one way or another…
You think it’s an insider job? They will orchestrate a low ball offer and accept. Curiously he hasn’t got much of shareholding in GGP has he? All my assumptions are based on that he will fight GGP corner very hard and get the resource estimate updated. But again, maybe I am trying to convince myself to follow my bias.
I don’t do conspiracy theories but I can visualise a scenario where a significant minority of private investors lose out. Remember if Newcrest were to buy out the remaining 25% they would have to take care of the GGP big wigs… I have a 25% likely hood of this happening. 50% likely we will get a reasonable deal and 25% that we will get a fair deal that reflects the ounces. Put it that way. I have a small holding of £5k @ 15p so I think that’s safe ground but will not be piling in but 13p would be tempting.
The temptation when slicing the cake is always to give others a skinny bit.
Interesting Bojo. If I do invest then it will be somewhere closer to 20 times your amount, just so that 10-20% increase is worthwhile.
How much you reckon will be offered and what GGP will agree to for the 5%? If the price differential is greater than 10% then the independent adjudicator will decide and GGP will have to accept that. There are 2 from GGP on the JV committee, so they are working closely.
My ideal entry would be between 12-13p, just so that the mcap is low enough for the low ball offer.
I’d say if you manage 12 to13p then a double is likely in good time. I don’t see the point in looking longer term as the ducks have to line up so to speak.
Broadly speaking the deal would already be done don’t you think? In the respect that each have the information and a price in mind that would be agreeable. Don’t see it going to the third party.
It depends on what they agree with. You would have thought that’s the case, imagine how awkward the relationship would be for those 2 on JV committee if they wildly disagree on valuation.
My other thought is that why screw the smaller partner as you already have 70% of the asset and it doesn’t set a good image of NCM.
https://audioboom.com/posts/8023506-midweek-takeaway-with-shaun-day-ceo-of-greatland-gold-aim-ggp
I will have to disappoint. I have not had time to have any thoughts on GGP. But I would follow John - who said it should return to the mid 20s - but I'm not investing in GGP...yet....I am waiting for EISB, SAR, HE1, IQAI and even Syn to produce returns - that could be weeks or months. But I guess GGP has the power of past sentiment - like HE1 - which could drive it hard.
I have heavy commitment to Scancell. Good GGP, HZM, Iqai and loads of UFO. Nice position in Angle and RedX. A trade in ETX. I’ll add Artemis on Monday if it’s as cheap as I hope (3.75p).
GGP we should know in 2 to 4 weeks MRE2 and 5% option. May yet be protracted if agreement can’t be reached. They will be accurate on timelines as Newcrest are a mid cap mining company on a proper market. There will be upside but nothing guaranteed. I see the risk is tying up capital that could be trading else where. It could be a damp squib @ 20p short term but they have an awful lot of gold @ Havieron. 24p would be decent. Thing is, will private investors be looked after? Well they own the majority of the shares…
I'm just beginning to have a look at Scancell and HZM - just looking for a few comps that are low-ish on price and won't do much for 1-3 years so there's no rush and I can slowly build up a holding.
I have been in HZM for over three years now and plan to still have a position during production. Like many I was disappointed with the terms of the finance package, being one for the II instead of the long standing PI’s. It used to have a very board BB with people like Wasarunner, Strummer Jones, Luke2 and many others posting regularly.
Great value around 6p in my opinion if you hold for the future. DYOR of course.