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CONTD..
In summary, 500 stores pm selling 2 units per day, my sp (x10PE) is 50p.
500 stores pm selling 5 units per day, my sp (x10PE) IS £1.25.
BB2.
Vas,
I have amended my previous calculations to extend through to end of June 2022.........
RNS states 2,000 stores in April (end of). Expected 3,500 by July (lets assume end of July) so adding 500 stores per month (which I believe is in line with previous RNS). And lets also assume continue to add 500 stores per month till June 2022, total 9,000 stores (I am not 100% sure when the 10,000 target number is expected to be hit).
Working on your two units per day (30 days per month) per existing store and each new store takes a cabinet of 48 units......
June 2,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($750k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $870k rev
July 3,000 existing @2 units per day @5 revenue ($900k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev($120k) equals $1,020k rev
Aug 3,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,050k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev($120k) equals $1.170k rev
Sept 4,000 existing @2 units per day @5 revenue ($1,200k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,320k rev
Oct 4,500 existing @2 units per day @5 revenue ($1,350k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,440k rev
Nov 5,000 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,500k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev($120k) equals $1,620k rev
Dec 5,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,650k) plus 500 new @48units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,770k rev
Jan 6,000 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,800k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,920k rev
Feb 6,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,950K) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $2,070k rev
Mar 7,000 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($2,100k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $2,220k rev
Apr 7,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($2,250k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $2,370k rev
May 8,000 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($2,400k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $2,520k rev
June 8,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($2,550k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $2,670k rev
So Q2 2021 rev should be $340k (April) plus $1,000k (May) plus $870k equals $2,210k
So Q3 2021 rev should be $1,020k plus $1,170k plus $1,320k equals $3,510k
So Q4 2021 rev should be $1,440k plus $1,620 plus $1,770 equals $4,830k
So Q1 2022 rev should be $1,920k plus $2,070k plus $2,220k equals $6,210k
So Q2 2022 rev should be $2,370k plus $2,520k plus $2,670k equals $7,560k
So taking Q2 2022 in isolation, I have calculated revenue of $7,560. Multiply this by four to annualise gives $30,240k annual revenue, up to 50% margin gives approx $15,120 profit. X10 PE gives mcap $151m (£107m) so sp of approx 50p. However, if you multiply by two and a half (to take product sold per day to 5 rather than 2), you get a sp of approx £1.25 which is very similar to your sp of £1.32 in a year's time !!!!!!
In summary, 500 stores pm selling 2 units per day, my sp (x10PE) is 50p.
500 stores pm selling 5 units per
Yes, Golfrob.....well observed. Playing on the stock market is full of if's, but's and maybe's ????
Vascular to Billy Boy,
Imagine if ZOE have rolled out say to 2500 outlets by end of May in US. Each outlet sells approx just 2 units per day. That's 60 CBD units per month required for each outlet to remain stocked. A case holds 48 units. So at even at these minimum sales levels as it stands at end of May -they will need at least 2,500 cases required to be delivered to each existing outlet.
2500 cases x 48 units x $5 = $600,000 per month just to re stock existing outlets.. So the early May $1 million order looks to me like 60%/ 70% resupply existing outlets and possibly around 30% stock in new outlets. Just a thought.
Wow....Imagine, if's, but's and maybe's ?????
It must be difficult watching a share keep going up...trying to work out whats the best course of action. I think knowing the business inside out and the strategy that is employed - gives you the confidence to hold. Still its a nice choice to have.
Do you have any similar "potential FT shares" you are watching....I don't other than a few other company's on AIM !
You only need to spot one and your made!
Vas,
I remember watching it go from £1.65 to over £5 in a year and thinking "it can't go any higher, can it?". Then watching it go up, and up.....
As you say, lesson learned.
ZOE has potential so lets see........
I think we are on the same (or similar) page as regards ZOE. Great to share thoughts etc....
BB2.
Hi Billy,
Just read half a dozen from that period, and they all look the same !!..
..materially ahead of current market expectations, increased footprints to 10K outlets, Revenue up 62%
Gross profit up 60%
Gross margin up 51.1%
EBITDA* up 68%.
and so it goes on.....well If I see anything similar to this again, i hope I recognise it for what it is.... This one went right by me....
Thanks , fingers crossed and eyes wide open.
Hi Vas,
Yes, my calculations are just a framework which we can tweak as necessary. As you say, hopefully we are being conservative at two units per day. In addition, I think we are being realistic as regards roll-out using 500 stores per day. Working on 7,500 by 31st March 2022 seems to be within the RNS quotes that we have been given.
Much prefer to be conservative and realistic rather than some of the rubbish you read on here.
On the basis that we do receive the quarterly updates, it also help to identify if things are NOT going to plan.
As you know, I am a little dubious regards AATAC. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong. What would really light the fire here, is if one of their (apparent) national partners (such as Seven 11 (I have a soft spot for Seven 11 following my many visits to the States when younger)) agreed to stock Chill. That would be akin to the Fevertree "Waitrose moment" that you alluded to over the weekend. If you get a chance, have a read of the early Fevertree trading statements from 2015/16. Let's just say the wording was a bit of a clue as to how well things were going! Missed opportunity for me!
BB2.
I do like the projection for Q1 2022 rev should be $1,920k plus $2,070k plus $2,220k equals $6,210k.
Continuing the rollout yet starting from a base level of $6 million per quarter!
Thanks Billy B.
I think what you have there is a good start....its a pretty conservative rollout framework - with just two units sold per day, and something that can be tweaked and improved as / when we learn more details. Thanks Vas.
contd....
interim results 1st April 2021 to 30 Sept 2021 $5,720k revenue
full year 1 April 2021 to 31st Mar 2022 $16,760k revenue
Obviously all complete guesswork using numerous assumptions. However, with the promise of quarterly sales reports it will be possible to compare sales and revenue (against expectations as per roll out guidance) a bit like above.
BB2.
Vas,
Good post. I wouldn't disagree with your suggested figures......
Taking it a step further...
RNS states 2,000 stores in April (end of). Expected 3,500 by July (lets assume end of July) so adding 500 stores per month (which I believe is in line with previous RNS). And lets also assume continue to add 500 stores per month till Dec, total 6,000 stores (I am not 100% sure when the 10,000 target number is expected to be hit).
Working on your two units per day per existing store and each new store takes a cabinet of 48 units......
June 2,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($750k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $870k rev
July 3,000 existing @2 units per day @5 revenue ($900k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev($120k) equals $1,020k rev
Aug 3,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,050k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev($120k) equals $1.170k rev
Sept 4,000 existing @2 units per day @5 revenue ($1,200k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,320k rev
Oct 4,500 existing @2 units per day @5 revenue ($1,350k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,440k rev
Nov 5,000 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,500k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev($120k) equals $1,620k rev
Dec 5,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,650k) plus 500 new @48units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,770k rev
Jan 6,000 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,800k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $1,920k rev
Feb 6,500 existing @2 units per day @$5 revenue ($1,950K) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $2,070k rev
Mar 7,000 existing @2 units per day @5 revenue ($2,100k) plus 500 new @48 units @$5 rev ($120k) equals $2,220k rev
So Q2 2021 rev should be $340k (April) plus $1,000k (May) plus $870k equals $2,210k
So Q3 2021 rev should be $1,020k plus $1,170k plus $1,320k equals $3,510k
So Q4 2021 rev should be $1,440k plus $1,620 plus $1,770 equals $4,830k
So Q1 2022 rev should be $1,920k plus $2,070k plus $2,220k equals $6,210k
So interim results 1st April 21 to 30
It’s definitely a plausible route open to Zoetic. The smokes however were only advised of after this distribution agreement was signed pending validation from the FSA but I would imagine our CEOs were having the smokes in mind.
It was pure speculation on my part but the Schrader stores were sold to EG Group who own about 5500 c stores in US, UK and Europe. It’s the two brothers from Blackburn who have now bought (or at least buying) Asda. If the relationship from selling the Schrader stores was cordial and they could see the success of the Beta trial in those stores ..... I could be adding 2 and 2 to get something other than 4 but it would mean there is a distribution network of c-stores and supermarkets in UK and c-stores in Europe already lined up?? Ticks the High Street mention box too.
Like I said I’m speculating but ......
Billy Boy,
Imagine if ZOE have rolled out say to 2500 outlets by end of May in US. Each outlet sells approx just 2 units per day. That's 60 CBD units per month required for each outlet to remain stocked. A case holds 48 units. So at even at these minimum sales levels as it stands at end of May -they will need at least 2,500 cases required to be delivered to each existing outlet.
2500 cases x 48 units x $5 = $600,000 per month just to re stock existing outlets.. So the early May $1 million order looks to me like 60%/ 70% resupply existing outlets and possibly around 30% stock in new outlets. Just a thought.
Well they say they have a great deal with distributor to some of our well known high street chains. We just need the FSA to pull their finger out. Has been 2 months since EIHA announced they passed the first acceptance stage. Still good to know we are members of the EIHA and the ACI though.
I think the latter too as I believe it is only tobacco based products that have to be held behind the blank cupboards and no advertising. Think Chill should be ok to be out on display. That will give it a nice advantage especially if they can get a distribution deal like US where it gets promoted with displays by tills.
When the smokes start selling in U.K. how do you peeps see them in the kiosks. Covered up like tobacco products or fully on display on counters like JUUL. As they are non tobacco products I see the latter scenario which would see many c stores and supermarkets having point of display stands with the smokes and they’re eye catching branding. Not long to wait but can see the U.K. market exploding with these chill smokes. Like a brand new product that all smokers would be willing to try.
Filter button is like a Chill gummy, takes away the numpties for a stressful bb
Filtering the chuckle brothers is easier!
That’s an initiative others might follow?
Morning,
Looks like Craig has deleted his account.
Shame, genuine guy.
Obviously family issues more important presently. Hopefully he will be back.
BB2.