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Hi Jiving,
Thanks for adding a third scenario - some specific 'meat' to the rather general bone that I tossed out !
I wonder whether there's any 'right of first refusal/right of last refusal' in the Collahuasi J/V agreement ? That would put a pretty big spanner in the works for anyone wanting the jewel in AAL's crown...and IF GLEN could exercise, GLEN would itself in turn become even more of a target for 'strategic investors' in a copper-hungry world...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-demand-boom-new-technology-drives-power-consumption-trafigura-says-2024-04-22/
Everybody looks at renewables and EV's, but the power-hungry beasts, apparently, are the AI-related data-centres...
GLA and ATB
"...securing a couple of $b for its ZIOC stake would be very welcome." Translated into sterling implies a 69-bagger from here i.e. 496p which I'm sure would please everyone!
Reuters gives a date of 22 May for new bids to be launched for Anglo. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/glencore-studying-an-approach-anglo-american-sources-say-2024-05-02/
Glencore has limited financial resources given its Teck bid which is due to close next quarter & refinancing the proposed spin off of the coal subsidiary due in 2025. However it could act as a spoiler by buying the other half of the Collahuasi copper mine it jointly owns/manages with Anglo (which is the key Anglo asset).
I see Glencore as being cash hungry in virtually all scenarios, securing a couple of $b for its ZIOC stake would be very welcome. A small royalty would be an ongoing interest & keep the iron ore trading dept 'bonus happy'. If Glencore had ever had any development interest in Zanaga they have had 10+ years to have done something about it.
The BHP/AAL tussle could find imitators/competitors as the industry consolidates and is sometimes a sign of a 'top' in a sector - aka 'go mining on Wall Street' - you can buy production in a couple of years, whereas a mine can take decades.
I don't follow GLEN closely enough to know whether it is seriously interested in competing for AAL (or just wants to push BHP into paying more) and it seems to be a moot point whether it could actually afford to : it's pretty tied up at the moment with the 'bundling and unbundling' of Teck.
There also seems to be some suggestion that Ivan (at 9+%, GLEN's largest shareholder, just ahead of Qatar) may not be fully behind the 'coal repositioning' strategy ('coking yes/thermal no' , AIUI), which is -or may be- another wrinkle...
If GLEN did want to mount a bid, it could bolster its finances with an outright sale of its ZIOC stake.....OTOH, if it found itself on the RECEIVING end of a bid, it could be expected to point to its 'hidden value' in Zioc (and presumably others)...
who knows how this will ultimately play out?
Which only reinforces my contention that nothing we say on these boards ultimately matters, but perhaps how we conduct ourselves does.
GLA
Spot on Mitch984.
There will be no "overnight jackpot" as I understand the term.
Back to the drawing-board but even without a takeover offer the SP still looks very undervalued.
I've spent 12 years invested in ZIOC and it's always been my largest investment.
What a colossal waste of time and money!
Sad to see posters on here fighting like cat and dog - blame Mr Elphick!
Whose hands are tied by GLEN.
Glencore have a lot to answer for -they are supposed to create sustained value and income streams for their shareholders -yet they upto now seem content to see the ZIOc project stuck with no Progress. -no doubt they will cough up billions in an attempt to takeover Angloamerican
Spot on Jiving.
There are clearly many negatives about the Zanaga situation, most likely country related and/or related to Glencore's involvement.
Otherwise why would Simandou be going ahead at 2-3 times the capital cost and a lower quality resource?
If anyone objects to any of these negatives being posted on this board, then they are in cloud cuckoo land. Firstly nothing posted here will materially affect the long term share price. And secondly if there are indeed no negatives, why are we all still here waiting ... (im)patiently?
We all hope we are nearing the end, but personally I don't think that end will be a buyout. It will be a development of the mine - and then we will all eventually have a huge decision to make. Cash out early as the share prices rises - or hold on for several more years for even greater rewards when the mine is actually in production.
A hell of a decision for me at my age - but one I am looking forward to be faced with.
Hi all,
My overall approach to investment can be summarised in the following :
(1)The Tenth Man Rule - Principle Explained - Insight Before Action
insightbeforeaction.com/the-tenth-man-rule-principle-explained/
."The 10th Man discipline is one in which the group designates at least one individual to act as a loyal dissenter. “Loyal” because their ultimate goal is to make the best option for the company. And, as the dissenter, they not only have the right but also the obligation to disagree and “poke holes” in the group’s assumptions..."
(2) https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1939/08/the-indispensable-opposition/653471/
.."“The opposition is indispensable. A good statesman, like any other sensible human being, always learns more from his opponents than from his fervent supporters. For his supporters will push him to disaster unless his opponents show him where the dangers are. So if he is wise he will often pray to be delivered from his friends, because they will ruin him. But, though it hurts, he ought also to pray never to be left without opponents; for they keep him on the path of reason and good sense.”
(3) If folk read something they don't like/welcome/agree with, they're welcome to refute (and we can have a civilized debate) or ignore...or put me on filter.
I myself generally don't put people on filter, because of (2) above, unless they're particularly vexatious.
(4) Re ZIOC specifically, the idea that anything said on a BB may influence the eventual outcome is , frankly, laughable. Some people - 'no names, no pack-drill' - are full of themselves.
We are an irrelevance...and have been for some time, as the absence of corporate 'smooching' shows. Short-term manipulation of the share price may be a factor for a company where takeout is linked - however remotely - to the prevailing share price (' the price offered for XYZ represents a ..%age premium to the prevailing/preceding /whatever share price'') but that isn't the case here. We're surely past the stage where 'pumping ' the share-price short-term to get a placing away might be a possibility. If anything, management is showing what can charitably be described as 'benign neglect'
(5) Over-arching : 'Life is too short to be small'.
There are probably others, but that's enough for now.
GLA and ATB
Gla.(Will be taking a brake from posting, until mood lightens up a little!).
Good luck with that.
Jiving, we are going round in circles. Ex lied simple as that, agenda driven. Anyone can post what they feel is relevant but lets keep to the facts!
I certainly will not be filtering anyone, this allows me to see what liars are posted.
S86,jiving,eddsy,M71,Nibj,ex,v10,ATG,99IC,SD67,bear, Always,Mer ,et all(sorry if I’ve forgotten your alias)
I enjoy all of your opinions on this board.
Please can we remain on neutral to good terms while we await our long deserved reward.
Gla.(Will be taking a brake from posting, until mood lightens up a little!).
Eddsy, I don't see the Shard issue as being significant for ZIOC. But a lot of the issues Extrader highlight are highly relevant to ZIOCs situation. For example, his postings on the big problems/issues the locals face on very very basic matters like electricity & water supply, as well as the rising criticism in the press are highly relevant. One of the biggest dangers facing ZIOC investors is instability returning to the Congo via the undermining or overthrowing of the Nguesso regime. The sooner we get a strategic investor on board, hopefully for a full buyout, the better - such a development incidentally would likely strengthen the hand of the Nguessosas it would be a major victory for the Denis's!
I don't do squirming as I have no cause to. As I mentioned to Marcus previously, its critically important for rational investors to be aware of the positive & negative aspects of a high risk/reward binary investment like Zanaga & is exactly what an investment forum should be all about. I will continue to highlight both the positive & negative issues affecting the company & support others doing likewise. Please note some 12 months ago when MM came under criticism on this board I repeatedly defended his right to post. Of course there are people who disagree with my perspective, the filtering process is easy to put into motion on LSE & recommended for those wishing to avoid a particular poster.
Jiving there is no need to stick up for Pinocchio.
Ex’s was caught out in their original posts attempting to paint a negative slant and this was proved by the FT piece and link provided. Ex has form for this, its obvious to see for anyone that visits the boards on a regular basis. Blatantly writing an in accurate account of what occurred. Then tries deflection and the thread goes longer pushing their further lies down the thread. Common tactic!
The Shard culprit has not held a position for two years and been banned. In house cleaned up and we move on.
Theres far more interesting events occurring, than listening to you two squirm.
ATB
I have never seen anyone ramming 'negative' views down anyones throat on this board. The ratio of any so called 'negative' posts to the usual 'positive' posts I would overall put at well under 20%, likely less. Easy remedy Marcus filter those 'negative' posters, problem solved!
The reason most LTH are invested in this company is to make a vast multiple on strategic investor news, the only people obsessed by the inconsequential daily ups & downs of this horribly illiquid share are likely day traders not LTH.
Jiving I’m all for listening of both sides of the argument, but when’s it rammed down our throats several times over the course of a day it does make me wonder of the motives behind it.
Anyway shouldn’t be long before we hear of strategic investors then we will see a completely different narrative.
Well its always interesting to hear other people's point of view Marcus, which after all is what an investor discussion forum should be all about. For me the most vital part of an investor forum is to highlight the potential negatives around a company & the industry in which it operates. Why - because confirmation bias, people who have invested in a company clearly do so because they have a positive view on the company, which may or may not reflect (ever changing) reality & for essential balance need to be aware of the risks/downside that accompany every company in the world.
Actually successful professional investors take a similar view, my pal who is a long/short equity hedge fund manager reckons he seeks out & reads analysis the opposite of his position in a ratio pf 2:1. So if he is long Samsung, short Sony; he reads twice as much research which is negative on Samsung/positive on Sony as he does research that 'confirms' his view/position. Anybody who does not want to read Extrader/or indeed my posts is free to filter them so as not to be disturbed by them. But sadly it's often the case that it's not that they don't want to read the posts but that they effectively want to stop 'everybody' from reading the posts by chasing the erring poster off the board.
What I don’t get is that if you’re invested in a share then why would you constantly highlight any negative?
It’s like taking money out of your own pocket 🤦♂️
Anyway upwards and onwards. Well done to the posters who’ve heard back from Marty but I’m not sure there’s anything he can say at this point.
Hoping for a swift conclusion now to Strategic Investors talks and we can all enjoy a higher SP.
Anyone invested with genuine concerns would seek to clarify with the broker or company they’re invested in. Extrader has done this so many times now it’s hard to believe they could be genuinely invested. It’s good others can see it, making mountain out of molehills and creating concern where there is none. Good luck to all those genuinely invested here.
As mentioned by the company the next stage moves into FEED, starting costs of £22m.. and this Stage is part of Stage 1 costs. That should tell you everything you need to know.
"So extrader is out then. Fair enough. Everyone has to make their own move.."
Sorry to say Vet 10, that you've made an assumption (I'm not sure on what basis)...and you know what they say about 'assume'.....
For the avoidance of doubt, I have a larger investment in ZIOC (both absolute and as a %age of my portfolio) now than I've ever had in the 6+ years that I've held.
It would be interesting if you were to ask the same question of some of the more 'vocal' commentators around...and (of course) got equally honest answers.
I'll leave it at that.
ATB
So extrader is out then. Fair enough. Everyone has to make their own move.
PS and from the original article, it appears there were other (later than 2019) irregularities...
.."In addition, between June and July 2021, he provided misleading information to a further client purporting that Shard held substantial sums on its behalf. However, that client’s entire cash balance had previously been transferred out of its account..."
Misleading the auditors AND misleading the customers? Where does that leave Internal Audit and the Relationship Manager(s) throughout these events?
Hmm.
Thanks for highlighting the key phrase :
.."The FCA noted that Shard Capital contacted the regulator about the matter last year after discovering the existence of several documents “as a result of evidence disclosed by another party in court proceedings.."
So something that Shard's internal controls should have picked up in December 2019 (did they or didn't they ? - either way, not a good look - and what about those dealings from 2015-2017?) is made public (ie readily discoverable by the authorities) and Shard (aware of the original enquiry re 2015-2017) then contacts said authorities .
I believe that that's usually described as asking for 'other offences to be taken into consideration."
The FCA then agrees a discount on the fine and chalks up a (for it, rare) win.
I no longer subscribe, but expect this to be covered in Private Eye at some point.
HTH
Ex, well I can only deduce then your deliberately lying or spinning a negative? Which is it? What is your motive?
The FT article with link provide clearly states otherwise.
Shard Capital, which has not been accused of wrongdoing, said: “We welcome the completion of the investigation into James Lewis, which we have been supporting throughout. As highlighted in the FCA’s final notice, Mr Lewis has not held a senior management function at Shard Capital for over two years.” Lewis and Windhorst did not respond to requests for comment. The FCA also fined Lewis £120,300, allowing him a 30 per cent reduction after he agreed to settle the matter. The incident in which Lewis “risked misleading” a company’s auditor is one of two breaches flagged by the FCA. The other concerns a December 2019 transaction in which a client of Shard Capital instructed it to transfer $18mn of cash held for one of its “connected companies” to “its own account with Shard”. The FCA noted that Shard Capital contacted the regulator about the matter last year after discovering the existence of several documents “as a result of evidence disclosed by another party in court proceedings”.
https://www.ft.com/content/801e5e9d-1d5e-43cc-8f13-ea666cd7d101
The key sentence should you choose to ignore it :-
The FCA noted that Shard Capital contacted the regulator about the matter last year after discovering the existence of several documents “as a result of evidence disclosed by another party in court proceedings
Ho Hum always looking for a positive.
ATB
PS Lewis committed his offences in 2015-17 and was a repeat offender as recently as 2021.
The FCA - not Shard- did any 'house-cleaning' that was done, AFAICS.
'Fundamentally complicit' doesn't just refer to the FCA , on the face of it.
Hence my concluding remark 'I'm sure Shard are right when they say they're glad it's over'.
I call it as I see it.
ATB
Hi Eddsy
Thanks for asking!
C-B doesn't have any stadia that meet FIFA requirements, so will have to travel to their opponents' countries to play their qualifiers for World Cup 2026.
I don't follow the beautiful game that closely, but even I'm aware that having to play away is usually considered a disadvantage.
No doubt you'll be able to put a positive spin on this, as you do on most things.
ATB