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IMO 700 M is never going to happen. glen would not sell for 350M. they know what it is worth and there are other guys beside chinese that could buy. my guess is if BO, it is 5 usd /share, so just below 3B for all of it. just my guess.
So logic suggests ZIOC / Glencore would want USD 700m in payment/future royalties as a minimum. Makes the current market cap look like an opportunity you could say!
yes. 350 M usd
https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5df74f3c1727256b168b6a55/zanaga-iron-ore-an-introduction
Hi. I recall an interview with AT, where I am pretty sure he says more than 300M usd has been spent on analyzing the mine during the last 10 years
Hi Veteran 10,
From memory, Xstrata agreed to pay somewhere north of USD 100 M to advance the project, in return for its 50% + 1 stake.
As with ZIOC, most of that expenditure will have been written down/ off in its books, so the carrying value ( if any) in acquirer GLENâs books will be minimal.
ATB
Do we know exactly how much Glencore / Xstrata invested here? Was it circa ÂŁ300m?
Hi 2020zioc,
'The BoD are in at higher levels vs today' : at the time of the IPO , for 22odd million shares IIRC, the Directors sold another 22 odd million, thereby recouping a large %age of whatever they'd paid out as venture capital. They haven't bought any shares since then, to my knowledge.
'They invested a lot of money from the IPO...' Yes, the PI's money, not their own. And then Xstrata's money , in return for Xstrata getting a share of Jumelles.
What ZIOC is bought for may be broadly linked to its perceived 'worth', but depends very much on who/how many potential buyers there are; whether they compete or agree a 'buyer's strike'; whether they have the ability to frustrate/frighten off another prospective buyer, etc etc.
It's not difficult to imagine a combination of interests that might get together and make ZIOC an 'offer it can't refuse'.
And you can't necessarily count on GLEN for protection : read up on how Glasenberg stitched up MIck Davies over GLEN's merger with Xstrata that turned into a takeover...
OTOH, COIDIC's 'project management' involvement gives some cautious grounds for optimism that at least we're moving towards the end game....The present global disruption may bring it closer.
Famous last words...
ATB
hi extrader. true that BOD did not pay 1.56 but they are in at higher levels vs today, and they invested alot of money from the ipo to investigate the ressource. I dont think you can put a pricetag on zanaga based on the limited trading on AIM. The pricetag will be based on what a 2.1 reserve 65+FE is worth for a buyer. lets not forget glen. they are fully aware of what the mine is worth for the right buyer, and I dont think they will let it go for peanuts. I still believe there is a larger reason behind the frame agreement with the chinese, as I dont think they would use any time on this for free, unless they have a bigger plan in their minds.
Hi lynthip,
Iâm afraid youâre anchoring. The BoD didnât pay anything like the IPO price, thatâs what they SOLD at, to get a chunk of their âseed capitalâ back...
The only relevance of ÂŁ 1.56 + is if you believe they are concerned about the IPO subscribers (about 10% of shareholders) making a profit...
ATB
It wonât go for 50p. The bod will want a lot more than the IPO price of ÂŁ1.56. They would never let it go for a song
Hi atg,
If my economic value yardstick was a classic car, forinstance, and its price fell by half in view of present circs, would I mind that much if I only got half as much for my ZIOC as Iâd been previously mentally targeting ?
Remember the line from Bridge of Spies ?
Q : Are you worried ?
A : Would it make a difference ?
ATB
For example. If this sold for 50p tomorrow, I would not unhappy. Profit is profit. But it would be an economic mugging and mind blowingly cheap.
Most people" don't think they fall in to the category of "most people".
Most people would use cheapness as % discount to a range of economic value yardsticks.
Hi Veteran 10,
âCheapâ is relative. Most people see shares as a means to an end , to buy something else : a holiday, a car, a house, financial âsecurityâ or whatever.
If ZIOC is bought for 20% or 40% or 60% of what peeps were hoping for, thatâs only relevant relative to what you can buy / want to buy with the proceeds...
In that boozerâs poem â Rubaiyyat of Omar el Khayyamâ, thereâs a great line to the effect of â I wonder what wine merchants buy thatâs half as precious as the stuff they sellâ....;-)
ATB
IMO zanaga will not be prices based on the limited trading of the limited free float of shares. if you look at 1 mio shares traded normally per day, this is only 40k gbp value. zanaga will in case of an offer be prices based on what is the value of the ressource. the large share holders in zanaga, will not accept an offer of ie 15 p, even if it is 4x. alot of people are in from much higher levels, and the value of zanaga in terms of the ressource has not gone down since the ipo, but only gone up. it is not reflected in the current SP, but will IMO be i case someone wants to buy both our half and glencores half.
I think shareholders all agree that the current share price is extremely low. Given the extent of the drop during this difficult time for the markets, I wondered how this has changed/not changed peoples' share price targets? Is there a risk we will be taken out on the cheap for?
Would be interesting to hear your views.
Vet