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Thanks compound for the explanation.
I am trying to understand this stuff better and picked up this link from Pokerchips .
17 Dec is contract expiry date and usually preceded by activity on call and put positions, opening new positions in January etc. There are still a large number of open put positions for December and I wonder if these recent transactions are related to that, closing out for calendar year end etc. If so, while December 1094 open put interests reduced to 1093, January calls increased 250.
https://www.eurex.com/ex-en/markets/equ/opt/Vodafone-Group-952440
ro55fay. slowly slowly catchee monkey before it eats Robina!
slowly slowly catchee monkey
If we were to get to 142 then I am or will be a banana. After all I'm already 60% there.
Cheers Compound, Sounds like you know your stuff? A break out to 1.42 will suit me in short to medium term.
No problem Daniel. VOD is far too big for anything we say or do to have an impact on it's share price, but the average daily trading volume is tiny compared to the funds available to a trader with an investment bank or hedge fund. These people move much bigger markets like commodities and forex.
Market moves for VOD changed on 4th November. Since then we've been in an uptrend and volumes have been higher. We've had results, an ex div day, the markets go into a mini meltdown and some market manipulations since then though so it's been very noisy and easy to miss.
Now all that's behind us (hopefully) I'm fully expecting this to continue on the uptrend which resumed last Tuesday. Just look at today for example - FTSE down and VOD up. It's not massive moves, but it's happening. I wouldn't even rule out a proper break out towards 142p if we get a Santa Claus rally in the wider markets.
compound. Thanks for your explanation. I find it hard to believe that a company as big as vod can be manipulated, but it looks like perhaps I am wrong, I just hope I'm not wrong? Surely with sets the price can't be manipulated in the way you suggest? At the end of the day, everybody loves to blame there loses on the wicked manipulators rather than themselves? Have a good day.
Compound - yes a great explanation.
We seem to have a slight uptrend very recently for who knows what reason. Cynically I can't help thinking these little uptrends are simply to sucker people into the market. Maybe some investors can see (or rather hope for ) a dim light some way into the future - who knows.
My issue remains with the enormous infrastructure expenditure Vodafone needs - like state spending. Because of that I can't understand the broker targets and why they would put their name to them. They know all this too I presume which means the targets are a scam unless they can explain why a 30%+ uplift in the sp can be achieved. Shorts are around 2% which can't help.
Compound - great explanation. I can recommend the book Flash Crash for a real life example.
Daniel - yes it can be done for a short period of time.
Large sell orders can be placed on the book which are consistently just below the current market price. Those sell orders are then removed before they actually filled, and new large sell orders are placed which are a little bit lower. At any time if you look at the order book it will be heavily stacked on the sell side, which will give the appearance of very heavy selling pressure, which can lead to the price being walked down. Anyone coming to the market to sell will place their order just above the large sell orders, and because those large sell orders are being removed and replaced at a lower price the SP can drift.
You can only do it if you already own a very large chunk of shares that you can use to stack the order book to the sell side, as you can only place sell orders for shares that you own.
Once the negative selling pressure has been established, you gradually reduce your sell orders and let the order book fill up with genuine sell orders, and then swoop down and buy all of the sell orders on the order book. That's why the SP shoots up so quickly as the only orders left on the book are at a much higher price.
If you do that then you can buy a very large chunk of shares at a lower price than you would have got if you had either just placed a very large order to buy on the book or started off buying all of the sell orders very quickly as both of those will lead to a steady SP increase and you'll end up paying more. It's not something that works for very long as people cotton on to it, but it can work for a few hours or a day or two if you are lucky.
Volume has increased significantly since the start of November and there have been other large volume days. That's not down to PIs or fund managers rebalancing their portfolios.
Someone is either closing a large short position or building a large long position. You can't tell which looking at price action/volume/order books, as they are essentially the same thing.
Either way it's good news.
I wasn't watching the VOD order book on Tuesday or yesterday, so I can't 100% confirm that's what happened, however all of the signs were there - SP starts moving in opposite direction to market, decline is very linear and is then followed by a spike in price and high volume.
This kind of stuff happens all the time, on equities, commodities, forex, interest rate swaps etc. It's market manipulation and is illegal, but hard to prove. Every now and then the regulators catch one of the big boys doing it and they get a 'large' fine which is substantially lower than the profits they make from doing it, so they keep on doing it!
Good evening Dan, it's good to see this getting some momentum going, and as long as the up days are higher than the down days, that will be good enough for me, hopefully be we can get 120 plus, then good results next year, and we could be on our way to a profit, lets hope so hey
compound. How does someone deliberately manipulate the sp in a company as massive as vodafone to get it lower ready for todays buys? How do you know? I like the good news bit, but come on, you don't really have a clue do you?
This wasn’t just a spike after the release of an uncooked alert. The SP was clearly being manipulated yesterday - not only was it going in the opposite direction to the markets, but the decline from 9.20am was far too neat and linear for it to be normal price action.
Someone was deliberately manipulating the SP to get it lower ready for today’s buys.
Something is going on. Either it’s someone building a big long position or closing a big short.
Either way it’s good news :)
Hello Robleo. We need a good day tomorrow to keep the momentum, even if it falls back a bit at the end of the day as usual? Who cares, as long as it ends up? That spike today was strange? My last purchase was at about £1.11 pre divi, so in profit on that. Shame about all my other buys though, but one day at a time. Previous to that was 1.17 pre divi,so almost there. Then 1.21. All the way up to over £2 I hope. Good luck Amigo with all your other shares.
CNBC stating a large amount of call options , which I think it IIs loading up to bake in the 6% Divi and potential 36 month growth story here.
Could be the start of the begining for VOD
Starting to get a bit interesting here now guys, will be interesting to see what price we finish at on Friday
G.L.A.
No idea why, but it's good to see it's going up.
Who else added last week? I picked up 15K shares in my wife's ISA at 109, fully loaded in her ISA too.
Hmm, very large trading volume today, are we going to go up?????