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Hi soton, just had a look on Hargreaves weighted average 172 so still very high if that is correct
cheers
Hi Rob just curious has to what your average is now ? It's ok if you don't want to answer i'm at 127p happy to hang on for 140p....
Hi roofer, RE: recent buy it seems like a good buy at 91p but I'm not sure if it will turn out to be a good or bad decision
Vodafone has not been very kind to me as it kept dropping and dropping since i bought in here about 5 years ago, but there's nothing i can do about the past, i had the opportunity to add here for around £1 in the previous 2 years but didn't do so
each time it climbed back up to around 140, so had i done so and resold for 139 i would have reduced my losses here considerably, i won't be needing to take any money out of here anytime soon so if i have to wait a while it's not a problem, taking a bit of a gamble with this one hoping the dividends don't get reduced or stopped and just hoping it will bring some rewards, i will leave all the technical debt and merger analysing to the guys who are into all that stuff it's all double Dutch to me
cheers and best of luck to all vod investers
And finally as promised, a look at future earnings, which surprisingly look astonishingly bullish.
- First a recent-years recap:
And a quick overview of the top line Revenue from 2013 to 2022 reveals a moribund performance with the whole of that entire period remaining locked in the €40b’s, ranging from the bottom half of the 40’s up to the higher end of the 40’s.
And not in a linear fashion that would denote growth - but all over the shop from year to year.
Safe to say, it shows an ex-growth performance (so divi’s very important as the antidote) with annual revenue locked inside the decile that makes up the €40b’s range.
- - - -
Now Earnings:
Nasty but true, but the 10 years of results since 2013 to 2022, reveal 4 of those years with some very nasty losses. So no wonder the SP has had a tough time of things over the years.
Just recently 2019 closed with a whopping €8b Net Loss followed by 2020 and a more modest €0.9b loss.
2021 turned the tide with a small Net Profit of €0.1b
Followed-up by a very impressive 2022 performance close, of a massive €2b Net Profit!
(Although €2b+ Net profits and then some, have been seen in further back years).
And the future looks even better according to market estimates. This current trading year (2023) is/was penciled-in to produce a €2.9b Net Profit
I say ‘was’ because after H1 that is now more likely (TTM methodology) to turn in (a still whopping) only a €2.0b Net Profit!
Are the days of regular hiccups of producing the odd net loss over?
Because -
2024 is penciled-in to still be going for the €3b target to produce €2.9b Net Profit!
Both those years are each estimated to remain in the mid €40b’s as regards Revenue.
So despite Net Debt being a cause for concern in most quarters what’s being overlooked is that Net Profits estimates of €2b++ is now the new order of the day for the immediate future; and no waiting!
It’s on the cards. VOD has only to deliver it now. And better be no hanky panky before getting there!
That’s about it from me.
——————
Will try to keep my own counsel from now on, as an investment/trading tactic (although I carry some strong VOD trend direction views and potential SP danger areas) until the full-year results are published next year to see if any of the above/and Net Debt targets get bettered or come in worse.
In the meantime, I will take a bash at participating in Roofer’s pricing competition.
Page 43 is worth a look ie the increase in net debt from year end €41.6Bn to H1 €45.5Bn due to net collateral liabilities and timing differences.
In particular, FY22 €2.2Bn increases to H1 €7.6Bn.
The group accounting policy causing the timing difference says:
'The Group invests surplus cash positions across a portfolio of short-term investments to manage liquidity and credit risk whilst achieving suitable returns. Collateral arrangements on derivative financial instruments result in cash being paid/(held), repayable when the derivatives are settled. These assets do not meet the definition of cash and cash equivalents but are included in the Group’s net debt based on their liquidity.'
https://investors.vodafone.com/sites/vodafone-ir/files/2022-11/vodafone-h1-fy23-results-presentation.pdf
Looking at the H1 presentation:
The Increase in net debt at the half year is due to MCB buy-back, timing of dividend payments & FCF phasing
Free cash flow weighted to H2 reflecting the seasonality of working capital and €1.7bn spectrum payment in Italy already in net debt
Hello Robleo , hope you do well with recent Vod buy, alas iweb wont take buy order just under 90p on ex-div day , instead took a few at SDR , i see DLG still rising , not tempted yet for a early xmas box , you were spot on about incident on Fri and gave you a chuckle.. atb
Debt rating agencies and investment community use net debt as follows:
'Gross debt less cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments, derivative financial instruments excluding mark-to-market adjustments and net collateral assets.'
At 31 March 2022 €m
GROSS BORROWING(70,092)
Lease liabilities 12,539
Bank borrowings secured against Indian assets 1,382
Collateral liabilities 2,914
GROSS DEBT (53,257)
Collateral liabilities (2,914)
Cash and cash equivalents 7,496
Short-term investments 4,795
Collateral assets 698
Derivative financial instruments 2,954
Less mark-to-market (gains)/losses deferred in hedge reserves (1,350)
NET DEBT (41,578)
Hello Velo ..Ref : Iweb Indiscretion Incident
Many thanks, but to put it more simpler..
Dashing , Pub , Football
Would be a better analyse....atb
Hi Velo, not sure where you obtained your figures, but I notice you've added borrowings excluded from the reported Net Debt figure, like Lease Liabilities. I haven't checked all the figures, but:
FY20 reported Net Debt, adjusted for mark to market gains in hedging reserves, was reported as 42.168 billion with,
Lease liabilities 12.063 billion,
Bank borrowings secured against Indian assets 1.346 billion,
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total borrowings excluded from net debt 13.409 billion
(42.168 + 13.409) = 55.577 billion - 1.346 billion = 54.231 billion
It appears your FY20 figure omits the Bank borrowings secured against Indian assets of 1.346 billion.
BT seem to automatically add lease liabilities to Net Debt, whereas Vodafone report Net Debt with them excluded.
The sale of the Vantage stake may knock around 6 billion of the Net Debt by the end of FY23.
Velo - It's all smoke and mirrors in these reports you get from big companies. One minute you're comfortably invested in what seems like a great company and the next minute all hell is let loose.
“. . . However I have discovered maybe another reason for the hue and outcry and will post about that in my next post so as not to detract from the above. “
————————
I want to now mention the ANNUAL Net debt, for each year.
To date, the market has gone into panic mode over this year’s half-year H1 Net Debt.
Well, they should prepare themselves for a stroke when they get an eyeball of several years worth of full-year annual net debts. LOL!
Proof positive that the media is short-sighted, because if they’ve gone ape-shht over €45.5b then they have retained no memory of all the past years' average higher full years worth of Net Debt.
To recap these were the prior years' H1 Net Debts, but next to them I’ve now supplied the full-year Net Debt that each year accrued -
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2020 = €48.1b
Net Debt for the full year ending 2020 = €54.2b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2021 = €43.8b
Net Debt for the full year ending 2021 = €52.7b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2022 = €44.2b
Net Debt for the full year ending 2022 = €54.6b
So you can see in each of the preceding 3 years, the average €45b half-year Net Debt ended each year, almost €8b or €9b higher than the H1 values.
That’s the average full-year - the lower mid-half 50’s of €53.8b
I draw your attention to this because I expect more panic at the full-year results next spring, so be ready to ask why they thought a yearly average of between €52b to €54b Net Debt was tolerated - but why not now?
Now all that was assuming that this current year was also going to come in with “similar” full-year Net Debt. However, it was my turn for a shock. According to the TTM method of estimates for the full-year Net Debt, I’m looking at a full-year Net Debt in the region of €60.8b!
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2023 = €45.5b
Net Debt ‘forcast’ (TTM) Fullyear ending 2023 = €60.8b
I don’t have an answer for that except to say look at the fantastic earnings increase for the next 2 years that I will reveal in the next post. Could the expected huge increase in earnings be part of the defense as to why Net Debt may or may not hit €60b by this trading year’s end?
Finally to counter all that, take a look in my final post next, at the great increase in earnings estimates the market expects over the next 2 years > > >
Thanks so much. I knew going ex dividend would bring it down a bit. Next Friday however i haven't got a clue.
On Nov 16th I posted comments referring to the net debt in the H1 trading update released that day.
I still had more to say but as it had gone midnight and I was far from home, I decided to leave it until I returned.
This is a bit late now, but here is the conclusion to my findings on Net Debt so it’s important the original post links to this conclusion.
Why?
Because every single review and criticism from media journos and the like, commenting on the Net Debt has utterly missed the continued similarity of Net Debt and yet all are in uproar at the “sudden” / “ballooning” of the Net Debt to €45b at H1.
And that’s a false and erroneous view to take because . . .
- NET DEBT IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS 3 YEARS OF H1 Net Debt amounts!
It’s not a new issue that’s only raised its head this year, why then so many panic-strewn reports and posts as if this has come flying out of the blue? It hasn’t. See for yourself:
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2020 = €48.1b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2021 = €43.8b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2022 = €44.2b
Net Debt @ H1 for year ending 2023 = €45.5b
The average for the 3 years prior (‘20 to ‘22) to the ‘23 H1 that was released last week is €45.3b
- So you can see the current year’s H1 is almost a perfect mean average making 4 years of H1's similarity.
It has not suddenly shot up out of control, it’s stayed almost exactly the same for a number of years now.
Where is the sudden “out-of-control ballooning” of Net Debt? And why are so many keen to make you think it is a brand-new problem?
It’s a fact that in a bull market, growth stocks are welcomed when they build up debt - but in a bear market, the market rotates out of debt-laden stocks and into value stocks. So I understand the angst.
But show me why it’s worse this H1 than the previous 3 years because it isn’t worse - it’s very, very, similar!
Net Debt doubled a couple of years ago at the time VOD bought Liberty Global’s towers in Germany & Europe et al. Think they paid about €21b which was added straight onto the Net Debt, effectively doubling it.
That was the time for the outcry! Far too late to ram it down investors' throats now as if it’s a helpful service to VOD investors.
However I have discovered maybe another reason for the hue and outcry and will post about that in my next post so as not to detract from the above.
It involves the full year Net Debts.
After that, a post on the fantastic, almost unbelievable, " sudden" :) :) huge earnings increase in market estimate forecasts that are due over the next 2 years > > >
' It'll be another headache for regulators to untangle the web of Tower ownership'
It will come down to the strength of each CEOS regulatory strategy and their own corporate strategies. Its possible VOD could retain control of Vantage and share in MBNL under some form of 'equivalence' principle like when Openreach was carved out but consolidates into the BT Group. Long term I thought the idea of 1 urban mobile network operator and 1 rural mobile network operator in the UK was a good solution to drawn out regulatory disputes between so many operators and referring matters to competition advisory tribunals etc. In the end, some form of remedy from winners to losers
For context, in respect of the Tower businesses:
https://mbnl.co.uk/about-us/
https://www.vantagetowers.com/sites/tower-co-v2/files/media/cornerstone-announcement.pdf
https://www.mobileeurope.co.uk/telefonica-and-liberty-global-looking-offload-50-of-uk-towerco/
"One thing I forgot to say about 3 is that they are heavily in sectors that VOD dont bother with such as area mobile data for smartmeters, smart bus stops, wireless telemetry for all sorts of wierd remote apps, in-car wireless data etc etc."
I'm still of the opinion that 3 and VOD are facing massive regulatory hurdles to merging, but should it be allowed I wonder what will happen to 3's 50% share in MBNL? The joint Tower company shared with EE.
Vodafone transferred their 50% share of Cornerstone to Vantage Towers last year, and it's now reported that Liberty/Telefonica (VMO2) are weighing up selling the other 50% of Cornerstone, but who to?
If Vodafone merge with 3, the new company will own a 50% stake in MBNL with the current Vodafone Towers 50% owned by Vantage, which Vodafone will hold a 49% stake in.
I think you can see where I'm going with this. It'll be another headache for regulators to untangle the web of Tower ownership, as mergers change the mobile landscape. Potentially Vantage could have a monopoly on UK Towers, so regulators may look at mergers, or sales of Tower assets, going forward and force divestment of certain Tower assets should mergers be allowed, alternatively they may say this is too complicated and block mergers.
Lesson Learnt
I was a " Dashing Dan " but failed on the...... Looks
Many thanks for team support
Iweb now showing closing Sp 93.06p
Atb
This weeks Winners and Accolade goes to
"Robleo and GutterSnipe "
Well done
Closing Sp 93.06p
Apologies for spoiling the speeches
"Even Google and Yahoo get it wrong although they’re much better these days."
Google Finance charts operate as a live service, so won't lock up to the minute price at the UT, but at the latest price to be reported. Google is useful, as most of the time the price is instantaneous on their Finance page, whereas the price is 15 minutes behind even on the London Stock Exchange, unless you pay for a live service. Another interesting difference between Google and the London Stock Exchange, is that Google historically remembers the full daily volumes, whereas the LSE only reports the On Exchange volumes on the Daily/Monthly Trade Recap bar chart. The chart below is derived from data on Google sheets and shows the total daily Volumes, including both On and Off Exchange trades:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ49B8X4hFFdtXb6WUx45CDRcgMt5FBglgZCFc5UnApKRpOX8cznaVjvfKeIWdC6xr70q5wCbdhpFe7/pubchart?oid=2085752711&format=interactive
Hi Roofer,
Roofer, you’ve got to be kinder to yourself - and iWeb.
As soon as I saw the time stamp on your post announcing the winner I knew what the problem was. You don’t have to run after the posters on this forum as soon as.
Get yourself a cuppa first, they can wait until later in the evening - or even Sat or Sunday.
I know how much time these things can intrude on compilers such as yourself of these contests. Even iWeb needs time. This site the longest time (up to 15 minutes at its worst).
So why not go to the font of all true knowledge? The source to the rest of the world of London prices?
The London Stock Exchange itself!
The VOD SP is free – and everything on earth first derives its data from the LSE.
Here’s the link to add to your bookmarks:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/VOD/vodafone-group-plc/company-page
- But please let the London Stock Exchange update the after-hours auctions the ropey uncrossed trades (UT’s at 4:35pm) etc., and allow all the computers to breathe and balance the day’s chaos.
Stay away from anything that is timed in the 4:30’s.
4:50 pm is it - but 5pm puts all debates to bed.
Bet you a £1 your iWeb data source is now tuned to the same as this site and the London Stock Exchange. Even Google and Yahoo get it wrong although they’re much better these days.
And I second Robleo’s sentiment to you of:
“. . . and thanks for your hard work “.
Yes, seconded! :)
Dan, go on rub it in, kick a man when he's down lol, oh dear what will happen Tuesday? do you remember what happened when England hosted the rugby world cup?
have a good weekend Amigo and brush up on the financial abbreviations ?
robleo grumpy? Never? Iran 2 wales 0. ooh!
Thanks again roofer,we all love you really?
hey Dan, we all know this is just for a bit of fun and taking part, and we need a bit of fun, there are a few miserable gits on these boards, come to think of it i can be a bit grumpy myself sometimes;-)
have a great weekend guy 99p next week cheers roofer