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PS. Still on me cyclical charts Mrd.
I see VOD has terrible first 3 months of the year past 5 years are 40% probability of those re-occurring (Dec rubbish for VOD too but a fractional small rise not woirth mentioning).
Gains in April and May then back to negative drop in June.
Ooh wait - there's a banker!!!! July! 100% probability of a rise - never fallen! That's a guarantee that is - July can you hang on till then? :) :) :) If not it's only a 2% rise month anyway.
Look it's not a magic bag of bingo numbers I've got here - blame VOD not me :)
Which brings it back to crappy August, crappy September and crappy October.
Best I can do - a guarantee for next July, but only a 2 per cent'er ! Oh well :(
"Feel battered and bruised. They say nov and dec in midterms years is 80% positive in the last 50 yrs lets see"
Okay, Here you are then Mrd, something to potentially cheer you up seeing as you're into cyclical events. :)
VOD is not a cyclical share like say a garden products manufacturer but what I've got is the monthly cyclical SP performances of VOD for each month over the past 5 years. Sometimes hits the mark now and then - but best regarded as for pure fun only.
Both September and October and including August just gone (3 then) are statisticaly negative minus SP growth months for VOD - been true this year so far ha!
What about November coming up next week then?
Well, over the past 5 years November has shown an aggregated 75% probability of a 3% SP gain from Nov 1st to the 30th for the whole month.
Not a lot; and only for fun mind you, but consider 146.6p tonight x 3% = almost 150p You want that, don't you?
THERE do you feel better now? No refunds. No guarantees.:) But statistically verified 75% probabilty of occuring again this November.
Well, the question you gotta ask yourself is, do I feel lucky? Well do you? Those are good odds :)
Velo there was no pattern today other than how you explained it. I was just messing. Im hoping for a bullish engulfing pattern tomorrow. Its been a bad oct. Feel battered and bruised. They say nov and dec in midterms years is 80% positive in the last 50 yrs lets see.
"Velo it was a inverted dow moji means 165 target in nov."
You've got me there Mrd. I was referring to single candlestick. Never heard of such a thing. Is it something of your own design or some combo candlestick pattern or another TA technique?
Never heard of an inverted dow moji. Is it a typo - by moji did you mean a Doji? If so,it wasn't a Doji - That close is not a bullish signal on it's own. It would have to have closed higher, clearly exceeding the open of that previous day's red candle to become a combination pattern of a Bullish Engulfing - that would defo be a bullish signal but it was too short in height to comply.
I'm just not on the same page as you Mrd - you'll have to explain further.
Velo it was a inverted dow moji means 165 target in nov.
We are 5g leaders if it takes off voda will be kings https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/life-style/science-technology/1036294/Vodafone-5G-network-announced-mobile-data-speeds/amp
I like the shape of the price action close. I think with a fair wind from background markets the SP could put on a good show tomorrow. Wouldn't draw any conclusions from that one blue day, but just look at the price action today. It opened way below Wedensday's close (not good) so a small gap - and then proceeded to drop even lower (argghh) right to 9:30am.
But from then on it climbed away and never re-visited that day's low.
It flucated looking like bad news again by early afternoon, but the bulls heaved it back up, freed from the grasp of the chasing bears up all the way and into close. A v nice rise into the close. Just look at the tail on it (yes I'm talking about candlesticks; sorry) it left a long tail to the bottom indicating the bulls overpowered the bears and from opening down this morning it not only managed to haul itself back up it the start point but just by a smidgen closed a little bit higher than the previous daty's close. So a decent Blue win for the day.
A well behaved day from the market and Indices tomorrow and it's a reasonable expectation to expect another blue day.
150 support vicinity area, is not giving up without a fight it would appear. It may not of course, but I reckon it's in with a decent chance tomorrow.
Long/medium/& short term trends are no way near changing, so small steps as they say.
Thank you Jack and Velo
Vod is ' good value with an imperfect past...the future is also not clear'
Today the White House has ordered a National Spectrum Strategy and task force to lead the way for 5G. Vod must be on the radar and Wall Street will take more of an interest?
Poker, sorry some typos using my (Voda) phone...
The financial statements show the assets at the lower of cost or net realisable value. This a basic method when putting a balance sheet together and thecwrite down is in the depreciation charge, sometimes and exceptional item etc. If the market value has fallen €29Bn since 31 March, something was very wrong with the last set of accounts which were prepared on a going concern basis. Vodafone is nothing like Enron and the telco industry learnt that lesson
I would be careful when deciding on an "under value" conclusion...
It all depends on what you base your criteria...
The market quite often doesn't really care about NAV at all...
It values ROCE and what return the assets are providing for the investments made....if the assets are not producing as good a return then they are no longer valued what the booked asset price may suggest...
That is why you see so many write downs ..... assets on the books at over valued/out dated valuations...
Right now ...in my opinion..the market wants to see how Mr Read proposes to improve the return on the capital employed and maintain the value of the assets bought...
It occurs to me that most of my posts may appear bearish towards VOD. True I've only posted on the downside risks, but examining the trading, profit & loss acc's, I've always been aware of the many positives there as well as the negatives, but have not commented on them due to, as I see it, the overwhelming pressure of the negatives on display v the year to date downtrend.
If time, and only if no one has done so, I'll try and post a fuller picture of the true standing of VOD - obviously as I interpret it, as another man's even-handed appraisal is another's blatant bias. I use ratio's throughout to compare as saying a metric is £xxxx amount of billions is a meaningless standalone to me unless it's compared to what the market regards as a successful metric. A deeper analysis will also help me with the 'fuller picture', as normally I concentrate on trends to the exclusion of all else.
It'll be an easy read but might take several pages so will find a way to keep it 'petite' and post on the weekend maybe if time, out of the way.
Before that also want to dash off a post on analysing Nick Read as he unwittingly gives away more than he realises in that link posted today. Snake oil salesman I called him on skinmming through on first read, will see if a fuller read-through changes that perception of mine. Hopefully get that one out of the way beforehand.
TomE its stll oct though
This share has a very positive future. Let's see where it goes.
Thanks re Simply Wall Street. Maybe of interest to others. Cheers.
Thanks. Comments respected. I shall ponder them more deeply this evening.
My point was thus: in August VOD was valued by the market at 188+. It of course changed from minute to minute after that on a daily basis as for all stocks. The market is always in flux. But today it’s value is back to 146+ as I write. No major news or reports since 25th July. What’s changed? Calculation? Or mostly sentiment?
A few weeks ago, the market & anyone could make a case for a higher value. Now a lower value. So it partly comes down to perspective.
To me at least, VOD is worth much higher, so I don't sell. If to others it’s worth only 146 & likely to go lower, they may sell at loss, as many have done & will do.
To be frank: this is no way to play this racket. For that's what markets mostly are. A racket. Once we understand how the racket works, even if we're not that talented, we learn not to give away our gains cheaply because of emotions. I know this from experience over years & good profits amassed via real shares (not so leverage).
If I need to hold this even a few years & pick up yield to see a profit, that's what I'll do until market sentiment improves again & meets closer to my perception of fair value. - Regards.
Best get your 200k in now then lol :-))
Thanks for all points & the info re Ocado. Will reflect on those, but I shall also have to look into that one further with Googling for evidence as it’s the first I’ve heard of these shenanigans as you represent re that stock. But thought provoking anyway.
As you can imagine, things were rather different in Livermore’s day with the so-called “bucket shops” & tape reading. I'm sure many more scams went on back then. LSE is supposedly well regulated these days. Certainly as far as the FTSE goes. If LSE has so little integrity, I think it'd make for some highly explosive headlines across all the financial press by now. That's my view. - Regards.
I keep telling myself you should only put enough in shares which you can afford not to look at. I put in everything again. Did the same in pmo
".....It looks like most have written off the 150p area - but it's still exerting a gravitational pull. I don't think tomorrow will be as bad some here tonight are fearing."
Well I don't think today has been dissapointing for VOD at all. It's within spiiting distance of last's night's close (near 4pm live price).
Maybe, maybe, those who think the floor is nigh will be called to the podium soon :)
It is forming an increase inverse round doji magic. Which means 165p in nov.
TomE is it saying 165 next week?
However, I've found time and time again using the P/E version of calculation so reliable and so simple I always run to it first - and the P/E ratio for valuing VOD reveals the SP is still not under valued using that method. It's fair value at this SP level.
By the way, here's a cheerful and fun, colourful quick link to use as a quickie second opinion, a free site that will value any share in the world for free (instantaneously) and tell you if it's undervalued or not, using their future cash flow method. You just enter the share name
Google: Simply Wall Street
(you get 14 free goes, per cycle ) (Scroll down until you get the big green and yellow slabs of colour to see under/over valued)
You'll get an undervalued rating there for VOD alright - as it says 1.46 IS UNDERVALUED !
- but you won't like one bit what it tells you is a fair valuation - it says that fair value for VOD is 1.98
Well look on the bright side - it least that's a greater amount than my "This current price area is fair value now" LOL!
What, yet another "mother of all rides"? LOL. I thought we might have seen the worst of it here by now considering we were 188+ only in August & over 200 in May. But seriously, we're probably close to the floor.
IMO, there's often little no logic to SPs. Stock values get bumped around on pure sentiment more than reason. If it's not fear or panic (sell, sell, sell!), it's ebullience or greed (buy as it's only going up!). A lot of it makes little sense. That's one reason why I won't ever chase markets by selling at loss to try & buy back cheaper.
The other reason? I'm not nearly clever enough to know what many millions of buyers & sellers that make the market are going to do tomorrow or next week, let alone next month or in 3 months.
So I do my thing. The only thing I can 100% control. That is, when to sell, when to buy. This for me remains a hold, but of course it could go lower in this climate & I'm braced for it. - Regards.