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There's a little inconsistency in the figures reported for the new TowerCo company that's being planned for next year.
(Repeat: and that Tower company is the sole reason for the current SP rise - not the Q1 results as implied by the Telegraph).
Not unexpected as all media sources are running fast to get a grip on the new Tower facts and figures.
Have seen mostly €18m Euros touted as the valuation of that new venture,
Then £18m GBP in that link Fleccy highlighted
and only £10m valuation in the Telegraph article I was referring to in the previous post.
As said, It's not unexpected as until firm guidance is issued all sources will be stretched to be on the same page, but very roughly the consensus appears this weekend to be:
€18m Euros (approx £16m) valuation -
with anticipated profits of circa £800m per year.
So that's your ballpark figures for calculating how much meat is left on the bone in calculating this current SP rise. Any more up to date info on TowerCo valuations then please post as that will determine VOD's SP re-rating.
Which on the matter of the SP, I'll now post seperately on >>>
Saw something in the financial media today, that's outrageously untrue about Vodafone, that if I don't post about it at this late hour - then, that'll be it, until later this week for me, and it'll be forgotten.
A new Telegraph news item scrolled across my tablet after switching on about VOD earlier today. And it's a salutary reminder in questioning the veracity of the info the media impart. The SP is rising with sentiment strong and it's expected there's more to come, so anything in the media that's bullish will find a ready audience, yes?
Here's the offending para that alarmed me and will just add fuel to runaway unbridled sentiment if taken at face value (it's 100% INCORRECT):
"...The reversal came after Mr Read, in charge since October, reported BETTER THAN EXPECTED FIRST QUARTER RESULTS and said preparations for a potential spin off of 61,700 towers across 10 markets were accelerating. The new company could be valued at £10bn analysts said...."
Total nonsense about the Q1 results.
The revenue failed not only to achieve forecast estimates, but also failed to even match last year's first quarter. It came in less! A 100% miss. (And no mention of net profit at all!)
Think the Telegraph got carried away with N. Read saying service revenue was improving - everything he highlighted - everything was down! So the SP is NOT rising on results at all. Towers only, is the sole reason.
In fact whilst on the concern of falling revenue, those same media reports nearly all mention debt rising to €47bn after next week/month when the Liberty deal goes through.
Currently it's €26.3bn so €47bn makes it approx 10% greater than Friday's new higher market Cap valuation!!!
In other words, very soon Vod will be valued very much less than it's debt burden! That is seriously shocking, even though entirely expected. The Tower sale is going to be more than essential.
It's like selling your house, going to the estate agents to ask where the cheque is, only to be told you still owe us tens of thousands to close the sale! When all that debt physically, actually, sits on the books there can be no slip-up's, no unexpected leaves on the line, no excuses from now on - none before the 2020 tower spin-off.
It's the albatross around Vod's neck should anything untoward raise it's head over the exciting Tower proposals.
Have a couple of more differing points to raise, so might as well carry on in seperate posts.
The initial target here was 145p....this has hit and exceeded that in one day!
Question is whats next?
Well i can see this hitting 170p imvho over the coming weeks....but its certainly not going to do that in a straight line... so while this should move higher it doesn't mean to say its not coming down a tad first.
vod - daily.
in this zoomed out daily chart focus on the 3 arrows on the rsi....on the 3 previous occasions when the rsi has moved above the overheated 70 level....it's retreated back down to the 30 level...effectively a p/b has taken place...
vod - daily.
on this chart you can see the 170p target....but i think a test of the gap support at 138p...or possibly a touch lower to 135p is possible....with any dips to those areas being buying opportunities...
So i think a small p/back followed by a higher high....and from here with a lot of the bearish doubts now gone its really a case of buying the dips on Vod imvho....
hope that's useful......nice post by Velo earlier....the only thing i would say is Gaps don't always get filled....they quite often do...but not always....they show strong buying support or selling pressure depending on the direction of the gap....
A gap above a key resistance (135p in the case of Vod) is usually a momentum trigger and a good sign of further gains to come imvho)
good luck folks...
atb, wdik, dyor,
Should hopefully trickle up to maybe £1.50 as interest returns and PI's start to nibble again. Slight tickle in the MOS which always encourages the blue rinse brigade!
Come on 200.
I'm nervy already, tell me why? Silicon chip inside his/her head?! Nas' looking good?! Come on 1.50.
The customer base is not comparable as VOD is more B2B in the UK. I wish Three the best of luck, infact I have switched to them from O2/GiffGaff. I have VOD broadband but again will switch. But as work goes we stay with VOD.
I have been led to believe from a mutual friend, that you are interested in longish candlesticks, & bald headed bulls or bears. I too have an interest in such things??!! So keep in touch?!
" I was going to mention that Marubozu candlestick earlier as it wouldn't go amiss at Cape Canaveral."
- Ha ha! I did LOL! at that. Yes a right monster!
Yep, g'night - I must cease posting in general, and get back in my box as need to fish out some time for a BT post on Aug 2nd trading update.
At this rate I'm not going to make it, so a busy day tomorrow for me on chores and stuff; thank goodness it's a lot cooler already, so I have no excuses, as the markets closed also.
I was going to mention that Marubozu candlestick earlier as it wouldn't go amiss at Cape Canaveral. I picked up on the same trend (3 below) in a conversation with Dan last week where we concluded all VOD bears have bald heads. However, todays Marubozu suggests VOD bulls very definitely also have bald heads :-)
Crikey, I might buy some more next week just to sell on, but thats how I got caught with too many VOD in the 1st place. Maybe its a day trade all next week and the longs stay in the bottom draw.
Thanks Velo, appreciate your insights.
GLA and good night!!
Danielh, thanks; keep me on my toes to prevent my posts sounding too gibberishy/anoraky as I pride myself in writing simply/ clearly.
I slipped up a bit there as I was replying to Longish who has expressed an interest in candlesticks. Normally I try and cut the crap out and just like everyone else say plainly - I think this could rise to - or fall back to, - without explaining why.
I've had the accusation of not being clear on many, many, an occasion elsewhere, so I've trained myself to cut most of it out, and just cut to the chase - except when I'm discussing fundamentals, people seem to love fundamental gibberish.
Velo 1% out, shame on you. I just wish I could understand what you are talking about, But more fool me? Perhaps 1 day I will get it? In the mean time I am as bullish as a white Marubozu?! White Marubozu's never moan, do they??!! I hope not.
Agree it is UK government approved and starting with the EU regulatory framework Act 2002, the pressure for regulatory convergence led the EC and the UK to form OFCOM with a statutory duty under the UK Communications Act 2003.
Found this link which is an easier read and highlights that dividing lines don’t truly exist – the EU is a fundamental part of the UK government.... until, of course, we Brexit!!
My point still is that openreach might go the same way as VOD towers under the same pressures..
Oops almost forgot - did mention in an earlier post somewhere about checking up on volume - here it is:
If lower than average volume then dramatic SP movements can often be laid at the door of manipulators and you shouldn't base decisions on such movements
- and there are significant short hedge fund positions of just over 4% in VOD.
The long term 50 day average volume is approx 89m
The long term 200 day average volume is approx 91m
So lets agree that 90m is the avegare longer term volume.
Then compare that to today's to draw a conclusion as to the veracity of the dramatic SP movement today.
90m? Today the volume was a staggering 204m !!!
That's institutional demand, that is!
The highest single day's volume this year to date!
It was not matched until you go back to May 2017 and not beaten again until further back in autumn 2014.
Then it was beaten several times in 2013.
As the largest volume this year, it does show the SP is unlikely to have ceased climbing on demand. The institutions may, might not play cute with the odd day down here and there, but overall they look like advancing next week.
Have an accumulation/distribution indicator that alledges to help detect dark pools operating behind the scenes (off-book). It too has shot up tonight.
This is real, serious intent volume. The institutions are coming. This was just the first day.
As some anoraks are fond of saying:
"Volume preceeds price".
Erratum: "Next up is the 39.2% level "
Typo! Meant 38.2% of course!
(Just in case any fellow anoraks out there, noticed :)
Had finished for the day, as still up to armpits in outstanding workloads; so quickly replying to your acknowledgement, and also wanted to lay some 'wild' thoughts down . . . .
Big mega white (blue on my screen) Marubozu candlestick close tonight. Bodes extremely well, but would have been much, much, better/stronger occurring not mid uptrend as of tonight's close for the weekend - but at the bottom of last week's downtrend.
Whatever, it is a mighty bugger though - just look at it. Combine that, with it being the first out the gate of a Gap-Up and it's almost certain that all next week would have to be seriously, seriously, unlucky for the SP not continue bullishly.
Also the SP has already commenced /and has been on bullish trend lines, since the 18th/19th of last week.
1) A bullish Gap-Up this morning.
2) Closed as a mega sized bullish White Marubozu tonight (the king of the jungle!)
3) The trend had already started on a small uptrend late last week.
Enough confirmation to expect a bullish continuation all next week?
Potential bearish signals -
1) The sudden speed of the northwards SP has propelled it into a couple of overbought conditions. Nothing to be concerned about at this stage; could remain overbought for quite awhile yet (weeks even?/ month).
2) One either believes in Gap-Up's/Gap-Down's or not. Many "experts" pour cold water on believers like me.
(And I'm still waiting for a gap-down in early May, in BT to revisit back up there and close - but just as it rose to the starting gate, the negative broker revisions were let loose on the market, and down the SP retraced to where it is now. Aug 2nd I feel for sure might bring the retrace to an end, when Q1 results are announced
- Got a fair bit to say opinionwise on Q1 forecast earnings on the BT site only, when more free time).
Anyway as a 'believer' in Gap-Up's, the negative to today's Gap-Up is that the SP must revisit in the future to "close the gap".
So I feel no shame in saying that if anyone wishes they could turn the clock back and make that top-up in the low 130's of yesterday, then "I believe" that at some point in the future maybe, just maybe, they will be presented with such an opportunity. Might only be a brief visit and recommence upwards or continue past to bad old ways. It's a 'wild, wild,' personal belief not a forecast.
Also, won't go into detail but the Fibbo 50% retracement level for VOD I have as 146p (reading taken from the crash of 2009 to the all-time high). And it's coincidentally, where tonight's SP came to rest. Coincidence? Of course.
Next up is the 39.2% level which is the lower 160's :) Not saying nuthin' cos that's a big leap :)
That's enough from me. No doubt Trendfriend might have some intermediate resistance levels to overcome before/if ever the 160's show up?
That's it - I'm done.
Fact check: Ofcom is not an EU institution. It may have to implement EU laws as part of it's mandate, but it is definitely British and takes care of many aspects of the industry which occur in the UK e.g. scams, viewer complaints etc.
Here's the facts:
Also to quote Ofcom, "The Office of Communications, commonly known as Ofcom, is the UK government-approved regulatory and competition authority for the broadcasting, telecommunications and postal industries of the United Kingdom. "
'Nick got 99% support '
Yes he did. As you say he may be greedy and he didn't get as much support for his LTIP. Some of the shareholders at the AGM told him why....also we remember the UK Director selling at 185 just before thee drop and now he is getting the new LTIP. I guess he was rewarded for the UK turnaround and now he is being rewarded to keep it that way..thats the way the system works and if the SP recovers plus divs, then I wont be complaining
Yes please, £1.50 on Monday. Confucius he say 'always expect the unexpected'. Another 10% would also be fine with me
I will be very happy if my sale today turns out in the coming months to have been made a very low level.
£1.50 Monday? OK just me then??? ere we go!?
Good timing longtimeinvestor. I was contemplating doing the same but didn't get around to buying that large second tranche of shares, it is now starting to look like the bottom for this share has been and gone, I'd convinced myself todays update was going to pull it back down. Oh well, I should be happy with the rise.
Longtime, yes it is. It was a UK institution when it was OFTEL. It became an EU institution regulating the UK when it became OFCOM. My point is that all the Brexit stuff is mainly about physical movement of goods in the EU market while telecom services are generally agreed under WTO. So any competition/ anti trust issues with VOD in EU (and IPOs etc) might be matched by equivalent consideration by an EU institution regulating the UK.
To be honest, I have no idea how Boris sees telecoms and how he figures the deals going on at the moment but he has been profiling superfast broadband in his maiden speech..