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Fair point LS but please do remember that a lot has changed since January for UOG. They are now producing! Let's see, I believe in Larkers, you need to believe too (until next week and we will truly see if he is a lying twot or not)
Well not all and not all that have had news as good as this are carrying such huge discounts. O&G sentiment is low that is a given but the problem here has been the huge amount of selling which was going on long before sentiment became a problem.
I recently corresponded with a broker and asked him why the sp is so low and he literally said because of Sentiment. All oil and gas companies are trading at a discount to their NAV. Besides Sentiment, this should be good to go. Unless Larkers doesn't have the luck of the Irish or that 'TRANSFORMATIONAL' pot of gold. Let's hope he is the man for the job and not full of porky pies
Tbh, I see this being a good update. Money coming from crown ($2.85m this year) and a further $1M once Hibiscus have Crown in production. Bp Hedge 6600bls per month at $60 and of course, same old 'transformational' stuff such as 3000bp per month. They are now producing and making revenue so compared to where they are last year then this is positive. But, it's all about sentiment, full value (broker targets) may not be realised in these markets. I'm not worried at all, but of course, dyor
In the Eygpt figures, don't forget to take into account the large chunk that the Egyptian government takes for any oil sold that was taken from its land. I think this is the reason some investors are still hesitant in investing in UOG.
Carribean I think you have been missing my point. Where did I say they were given away? Of course they were purchased but it seems, unlike the RNS alludes to, they were purchased cheaply in to not very sticky hands that the mgt would have us believe. How else do you account for the continued selling and run down of the SP? As I said at the time, conveniently no one was given over 3%.
Hi badger Thanks for the input; caveats noted. It seems to me that the Levi Stubbs has a flea in his ear over the rkh deal. I’m pretty sure that Shares from rkh were not given away, but purchased by whomever.....who cares? It’s done. LS needs to drop the dead donkey and move forward like the rest of us. Or is he going to be exposed? Anyway, it’s good analysis badger, and I’ll take a deeper look in the morrow when my eyes work better
Nice one Badger 99, so to put it into context, the previous shareprice was a lot higher when the company was losing over $2M per year and now the company has turned that around and now making $5M profit before tax (2020) and the shareprice is a lot lower today. Well undervalued here.!
Not sure if anyone picked up on the latest financial guidance from Cenkos (02/09/20), with PBT now forecast for $5m (2020) and $7.6m (2021) (?). Up from $4.8m and $7m respectively in their July note which I’ve commented on previously.
A few thoughts / headscratchers on these figures which may become clearer in the interims.
1. I still think these 2020 figures are for 12 months of Egypt and not the 10 post completion. Happy to be wrong. We’ll only have Egypt from March+ in the interim and full year P&L’s with the previous 14 months profit going to retained earnings in the balance sheet. I hope that BL/DQ explain that clearly in the covering RNS for the interims as in isolation the interim P&L will be a bit meh. 2. Not sure why there is a $0.9m difference between EBITDA and PBT in 2020. It’s not enough for Egypt depreciation or corporate G&A and looks too much for loan interest. The difference is only $0.1m in 2021 which makes it look even more odd. 3. Even though they’ve increased 2021 PBT to $7.6m, still looks low for 3,000boepd with Italy coming online sometime late H1’ish assuming Cenkos’ Egypt figs are still based on $44 per variable barrel in 2021. Still think they’ve included choking back El-Sam5 and/or some other well depletion factor into their model from Jan’21. 4. Closing cash of $5.7m (2020) and $9.4m (2021). I think that the 2020 figure is low as it won’t include the Egypt cash balance as at 31/12/19 as this hasn’t been disclosed to the market. It also appears to exclude the Hibiscus milestone payment which was expected in Dec, although I think that’ll slip into 2021. As for 2021, only generating additional cash of $3.7m on PBT of $7.6m appears low. PBT + non cash items – loan principal – capex + the deferred Hibiscus milestone, would give around $7.6m + $2.0m (Egypt depreciation) - $3.0m - $0.6m (Italy capex) + $2.9m = $8.9m, so a c.$5m difference. 4 drills in Egypt would be c.$3.5m-$4m, add some project spend for advancing the other existing porfolio + Italy seismic in late ‘21 and you’d be pretty much there. If they have allowed for a number Egypt wells to be drilled in 2021 in their cash calcs, the P&L in (3) doesn’t appear to include the benefit.
Obviously this is all imo and trying to second guess someone else’s financial model. DYOR and the usual caveats apply.
The breakdown of the RKH iceberg into a series of smaller icebergs - some to II's, some to spivs and flippers - has been commented to death and i've little to add. The Miton funds, where i would expect their holding to be held (based on RBD) appear to have reports out next month which should disclose the no of shares held
My take is him saying he put his own spin on the deal, doing a road show I would say was instrumental in anyone buying shares. He must have known full well that RKH wanted out and between the BoD & the Brokers they did the best they could. Who did what when we'll never know or even be concerned about . Anyway, I'm looking forward to next week because the company's going to release it's results and for the first time it's going to show it has and is still making a profit.
A little bit different Bebeto. So by his own words in his interview Larkers says he was instrumental in shaking Rkh free of their shares at the negotiated price of 2.66p but then left everything up to the broker as to who got them. Lol.
It's a pity there wasn't an Open Offer for current shareholders for a perentage of RKH's shares at 2.66p. I understand that Institutional Investors bring growth and stability but it doesn't appear to be the case here, it appears to be just a quick profit.