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Heid is 100% untrustworthy.......... #Unclegate
Whilst you don't see 'compartmentalisation' it seems UKOG were interested enough to perform an interference test to check out why the section of reservoir that HH-2z was in was at 'near virgin' pressure:-
'"interference" testing campaign undertaken to assess the degree of communication between Horse Hill-1 ("HH-1") and the new HH-2z horizontal,'
and the analysis lead to them determining 'that both HH-1 and HH-2z can be produced from the Portland at the same time, without any detrimental effect to the reservoir's overall performance' presumably whatever the interference test showed it enabled the production change from Kimmeridge to Portland - which wasn't the original plan.
The fact that the 'lions share' of production is from a restricted and variable quality zone means that sub seismic faulting or even depositional features could interrupt connectivity across the field, and managing to drill either side of whatever interruption exists is either a chance in a million or a sign of a more extensive system of fauting or other means of separation.
Near virgin does suggest some connectivity but that might be tortuous.
To return to the 'more than 300bopd' I still can't think of a good reason why UKOG would release a figure for only the flow from HH-1 when they stated the HH-2z ewt was continuing. This coupled with the approximate 4000bbls produced in 28 days to 28 April (ie not 28 days at over300bopd, about 13 days) when HH-1 production had already begun by 31 March according to that RNS.
At 8:03 yesterday Backwardsman said, "With much HH-2z is a success and we get a spike to sell into. If it’s a fail then we rank....".
Which caused me to observe that until now he has consistently maintained that he does not hold any UKOG shares. Now he is saying WE will get a spike to sell into meaning that he is in fact a shareholder of UKOG.
However yesterday at 12:03 to clarify his earlier post Backwardsman said:
"Morefondle - nice theory but just gobbledygook from my iPhone autocorrect. What I tried to say was that if HH-2z is a success then we will get a spike to sell into. If it’s a failure then the SP tanks."
You will notice that he did not amend the 'WE'. So still inferring that he is invested, despite all his posts to the contrary, and looking for a spike to sell into.
So is he just a liar, a bitter individual who can't accept responsibility for his own investment decisions or just a Walter Mitty? You decide but please don't bother telling me.
heid "I check back in here but do not see a trade at the moment, sadly."
CAUGHT!! It;s a bank Holiday here Heid - not sure what is where you are in(in India perhaps?) but you clearly aren't here - and you're conversion to a deramper fools no-one...............
I’ll need to carefully read the RNS’s again to understand exactly what you’re saying. Like you I’m working today but will check out your points in an evening.
I recently posted data here about UKOG’s performance under its current CEO. Space limited the clarification I needed to put around them, so here goes.
If there had been no value attributable to the £54.095m he’s raised from new equity, the shares today would be £5.9m / 8,486,797,492 = £0.0007.
The higher price at the time I wrote - £0.0024 - was a near record low and 33% lower than the £0.0036 when he took over. Almost all UKOG investors are underwater in terms of their buy in price.
The increase in market cap from £5.9m to £18.9m is more apparent than real. Share dilution has exceeded 81%, so of the increase of £13m, only 19% or £2.48m, is attributable to the initial equity (1,649,036,509 shares). After inflation, this figure falls to £2.13m - an increase of just 36% after 64 months in charge.
By any conventional measure of shareholder value, UKOG has been an utterly shambolic buy and hold investment.
With over £54m of new money creating just £13m of new value, the tsunami of new equity has swept away “averaging down” investors into the deeper sea of mounting financial losses - some still crying, in The Monkees’ refrain
I'm a believer
Not a trace of doubt in my mind
I'm in love
I'm a believer, I couldn't leave her if I tried
but many more of them now simply just hoping they will be rescued by a Phoenix, ridden by the CEO, that will rise majestically and imperiously from below the tempestuous waves to carry them not just to shore, but above the heads of former investors, to the lush green pastures of financial milk and honey he has created for them in the Weald Basin.
Possibility and probability are two different things. In early life, almost anything is possible, especially to dreamers (“if not you, who? If not now, when?”). Later in life, our dreams become tempered by the cold steel forged from experience and reality, and probability increasingly becomes our divining rod. Personally, the evidence is damning that the current CEO is a busted flush. He’s raised over £54m, then destroyed more of its value more quickly than many states with hyperinflation, avoiding the carnage by not investing in the equity himself. After 64 months, there is a possibility he may still succeed, but the probability of him doing so has, for me, melted away like an early morning mist over the Weald Basin.
For me, as CEO, Stephen Sanderson has been less Moses, more False Prophet. Remember: “I’ve seen, touched and smelled oil”, or words to that effect? Or an oilfield of “national significance” that was, he declared, UKOG’s “flagship” asset? A lexicon that has gone the same way as old English, into disuse and abandonment, as even he now sees how his bombast and actual reality walk different paths.
With this in mind, and the fact that Pentecost - the birth of speaking in strange tongues - is almost upon us, it’s worth remembering the old stock market adage, caveat emptor! Buyer beware!
if you know anything about planning then you know what's coming :)
BTW dId you get out on the spike or did you forget lol
Sorry ? What are these numerous assets you speak of ?
Broadford Bridge ? Dunsfold ..no planning ? Isle of Wight.. no planning ?
Good thing about Ukog not a one trick pony with numourous assets . It also controls its own destiny and once (if) in production will monetize it's assets.
Bad thing is the illustrious leader.
With an entry at .3 and effectively a free ride and a small part of my portfolio I have plenty of time. Wouldn't want to be stuck in the mud tho hey
Correct, this is oil and gas, so be realistic.
What is a few more weeks wait ?
Just gotta love the 'ish'
Bit like the rig arrival here then if you remember.
UJO has no issues that I am aware of Ohmetoe.
Everything is going to plan. Wressle producing October ish. Then a Profitable company , no debt and cash in the bank.
This is the UKOG board though, so if you want to discuss UJO further, Ohmetoe, please do so there.
Don't tell me a major is looking in.
ExxonMobil is about to abandon Arabia and pour all its resources into a dating gas project.
UJO has as many issues as UKOG only further behind.
I don't see the statement of the RNS below meaning that we are into compartmentalisation or pockets as you seem to imply.
You could say every oil field in the world is a pocket of some varying size or another if you were a cup half full type of person.
RNS of 23rd of December was:-
Downhole pressure gauges also confirmed that HH-2z penetrated a near virgin pressure section of the Portland oil pool. This finding has likely positive implications for the magnitude of connected oil in place and recoverable reserves seen by the field's two wells. Determining the oil volume connected to HH-2z remains a key EWT objective."
This means a Cpl of things to me a new recoverable reserve not previously part of the RNS below but also scuppers a few people who were banging on about depletion if we pumped oil from Portland HH1 and the horizontal HH2 at the same time.
The words are in the RNS magnitude of connected oil in place and recoverable reserves .Separate or separate pressures and connected (seems implausible but either way you want it its an increase again on the already quoted figures.
Prior to the Kimmeridge production switch, which was necessary for the safe drilling and coring of HH-2/2z through the Portland reservoir, total aggregate Portland production reached 29,568 bbl, with HH-1 continuing to produce dry Portland oil at a stable rate of over 220 bopd. Preliminary Company analysis of the final Portland pressure build-up test, indicates that the Portland connected oil volume accessed by HH-1 has significantly increased from 7-11 million bbl to 11-14 million bbl, a robustly commercial volume.
I can dig out Exodus or other details in RNS but frankly I am trying to get work done .
I am here for the Kimmeridge and for some reason along with all of the delays we have had reported verbatim there is a delaying of flow which has achieved the percentage ownership of HH and now the time is to stop peeing about and get on with maximising the asset.
Portland is a hold and while some have not managed to average or cant average down from the rampastic crap over zero assets 3 years ago I believe Kimmeridge is still a Buy
West Newton is fast approaching EWT with an increasing share price.
I check back in here but do not see a trade at the moment, sadly.
Glad you're here I lost my tumbleweed last year last seen at West newton.
Lets concentrate on your first point HH1
Brilliant so we are starting to slowly get somewhere.
Thankyou for at least conceding that we are getting 300bpd from the HH1 well . Now slowly review the RNS of 28th of Aprill
and bare in mind every man and is god on this board know there is only one pump on HH1 at the moment so only one source that's a fact
Rns 28 April 2020
"Consequently, with daily flow rates from production start at Horse Hill averaging over 300 barrels of dry oil per day ("bopd"), asset-level opex, inclusive of tanker export, sales and marketing, now equates to $17/bbl."
"These include interventions to add commingled Kimmeridge oil flow. If successful, the resultant incremental production will further reduce the field's overall variable opex costs per bbl."
NOTE :- The word add Commingled Kimmeridge yes ADD and " incremental increase"
So your a clever bloke and most people on here are not fools.
We are waiting to add Kimmeridge to the already agreed 300 bpd Portland
Read my other posts on RNS about Kimmeridge and you can see another potential 200 BPD "incremental Increase"from KL 4& 5
RNS 23rd December
"Immediately following the current HH-2z shut-in, flow lines were reconnected to HH-1 and dry Kimmeridge oil flow was resumed on 18 December at an initial half-hourly rate of 354 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") with an average daily rate of 301 bopd. "
That's why I have conservatively gone 560 bpd from HH1 but expect maybe we might open up and let it go to get ergonomic pathway going and company recovery ,minimise future placings of which there will be some but at a higher and hopefully well bought into cost
My opinion is different to yours. As you’ve asked me to explain my views I will but don’t shoot the messenger.
‘ Consequently, with daily flow rates from production start at Horse Hill averaging over 300 barrels of dry oil per day ("bopd"), asset-level opex, inclusive of tanker export, sales and marketing, now equates to $17/bbl.’
I read that as the whole HH field is producing 300bopd.
The ‘virgin pressure’ zone that you mention in your post indicates to me that HH is a compartmentalised reservoir. That is going to mean more wells, more capex/opex, more operational difficulties and an early abandonment of the field. It’s not a positive whatever the BOD say.
That’s why I think 400bopd from the field could be a realistic and achievable total.
M, can you add my guesstimate 410 420 850
ATB Keep Safe
You can guarantee 100% that every time "Past his Tymers" predicts something, it's wrong. (2p/5p).......
I do particularly enjoy the ones where permission to quote is granted.
Nomlungu - Thx! Priceless.
Mayfordriver no doubt about it and one or two posters Sting particularly has digested the previous rns's very well I'll repeat some look some see!! Ukog United
I will enter 10pTymers at 3000 bopd total - we now know he's actually Double headed Crook who forecast the same for Angus at Brockham right up to the point when they pulled the test..................
3000 bopd lmfao