Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
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25 years ! Where did that come from ?
If valuations were based on p/e ratio UKOG would be less than worthless. Obviously other factors come in to play.
Great post Sageman. At last someone speaking some sense! Could not agree more.
Sageman, a very sensible post. ATB
Always interesting to read pseudo intellectual posts extrapolating imaginary figures that are at best guesstimates and then trying to apply non applicable P/E ratios etc. Sadly both rampers and trolls are engaged in this meaningless task. The reality is that we need production and a CPR such that hard numbers can be run. But the Xfactor then comes into play which is sentiment. Sentiment is illogical and defies reasonable analysis. All the valuations are based on HH but how about the IOW? Success breeds cashflow and investor confidence. On fundamentals this share was never worth a mcap of 300m. If oil is flowing at 3000 BOPD , dilution stops and we get positive IOW drilling the sp could rise significantly. However, it is a fools errand trying to model any sp at this stage. The good thing is though that the mood music has changed for the better and if the RNS news flow continues to be positive the sp will rise 1.5p, 2p , 2.5p...who knows. Like most here I would just like to get back in to profit.
Apparently these 3 clowns run by unclear motives/purposes/reason
possess this board..........lol.
Jeremiah
You made valid point ...........doubt he took this to consideration so as other factors of wider pictures in play.
I wonder how much debt some of those low p/e companies are carrying?
Vindictive car park attendant and other Trolls ordered out in force tonight due to the close to 10% SP rise after further excellent HH well information.
Huge increase announced recently in the Portland Reservoir due to the OWC being considered 60 feet deeper than previously thought. Millions more barrels OIP, millions more barrels of oil recoverable. Every extra million barrels is another, at present, $60 million revenue.
Recently the Kimmeridge Reservoir was reported to have an increase in initial flow rates of more than 42% after the last short shut in.
Not surprising the car park attendant is spitting nails and deramping here, envious after his preferred oil company has suffered a horrendous £440 million MCap fall in the last few months.
JayKay
"To suggest I'm 'deliberately misleading by ignoring relevant facts' just isn't on, and you know it..."
I think we both know that you are.
Good luck in your stratagy whatever it may be. Mine is to wait for success or otherwise of HH, IOW, BB and see what happens. Short term dips wouldn't normally bother me but with the YA issue they do. The lesser shares they get the lesser money I get when the value is correctly realised.
That said every conversion to date is well above the 0.85 price when the deal was done. So the £12m is more like £10m for " Bleeding profusely" I am happy. xx
Penguins. Hmmm. You're a one aren't you. OK, Horse hill from existing back will produce 3500 bopd initially and then decline to 400 bopd in 2039! The NPV 10 is well over the current market cap. I can assure you sir I know the difference between resources and reserves. A CPR will come after EWT and horizontal flows confirming reserves. Planning is locked and loaded for 25 years. I know you hate UKOG as a share. But i really struggle to know why as yesterday's news confirms the new horizontal is likely to be spectacular. I'm not going to waste my energy arguing with you, just wanted to make a point for those who are thinking buying or selling.
Wow thank you for you generosity Penguins!
It is clearly stated that the Kimmeridge is for development over the longer term with a field development plan by 2022.
As you should be aware the Portland oil is only at HH & a Portland gas discovery at Godley bridge.
There is no point bandying words around with you on your speculation with your small amount of invesment in UKOG.
As I said time will tell, the question is should I take the professional judgement or the ameture?
All the wells drilled by Q1 2020?
and you still persist in stating that there will be no decline once production has dropped to about 400bopd in year 11. As that is obviously commercial why are they planning to stop after 20 years - could it be that in fact production is predicted to have dropped to a sub-commercial level by then?
Wizard one day maybe you will understand the difference between connected oil, OIP and recoverable oil (which is a percentage between 10 and 45% of connected oil - SS used 30%) so between 3.3 and 4.2 mmbls per well (2 wells 6.6 to 8.4mmbbls).
As for the Kimmeridge I'll leave you to ponder why UKOG put this in the Dunsfold aplication:- 'Flow tests and pressure data from the Broadford Bridge and Horse Hill Wells Sites have been sub-commercial'.
Until UKOG unequivocally declare the Kimmeridge commercial I'll leave it as not proven.
greedfear
That's an interesting valuation but I wander if it includes the last Portland upgrade from 7-11 million barrels to 11-14 million barrels & what extra may come due to the water layer being lower.
You never know on the issue of a RNS like that it could spike higher with anticipation..
NPV will be great to allow borrowing instead of dilution for development but the real value is in producing the oil £15-18 per barrel NPV & approx £35 after all production costs.
What value then?
This might help on valuation front. https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/9/26what-is-ukog-worth-part-2
I reckon 2-3p is reasobale on NPV and p/e front. Very undervalued at 1.2p, given recent news flow. Key is 25 years planning consent at HH. With all the hassle of getting planning in the UK for onshore wells, that was a major win for UKOG with Surrey planning committee in September. Everyone is talking VAST etc, but HH is a great asset in Surrey, just down the road from Gatwick airport and planning consent allows for up to 16 tankers a day i.e. 3500 bopd. Once all the wells are drilled by Q1 2020, 3500 it will be. Even in 20 years time the field will be flowing at an estimated 400 bopd off the existing pad.
Jaykay do yourself a favour and try not to.incite the ukog board is drastically different from 12 months ago and some very knowledgable investers in all categories. This Influx of knowledge is based on ukogs progress and will only continue to attract . Glh
Same old, same old.....from resident trolls.....
Thorpedo
Nothing new there then.
I don't expect anything different from this poster so do not waste my time or effort engaging.
Troll is troll just filter.
JayKay
Then you are proving that your statements are deliberately misleading by ignoring relevant facts.
JayKay
Yes I agree a P/E of 25 is inappropriate do we agree that a P/e on HHs profits of 12.5 is reasonable.
JayKay
The BPs have a higher P/E because they have a higher percentage of plays in production than development. The younger Companies are developing wells and therefore the costs of the development reduces the profits and therefore the P/E.
Or for example let's say UKOG HH make profits of £40m pa and get the market P/E of 12.5 that would give a Mcap of £500m. If they spent £20m of that on say developing Godley Bridge then the profits would be £20m but the Mcap would still be £500m giving a P/E of 6.25 similar to the P/E you state.
Today's rns rubber stamps the last couple of months . Great to be part of this journey the ones that sold earnt their day trade the one that hold will earn the greatest rewards personally dont need to seel on a 10 percent uplift but some have beer money to find glh
A few trolls will continue to post negativity against this stock all the way to the FTSE350 but UKOG are definately destined for the FTSE350 as a mid-cap oil producer.
The plan is being worked step by step with risk being removed at each step and value added. Unfortunately the market does not work in straight lines the same way but will re-rate the stock at some point. It'll be some king of advalanche of buying as the big boys fight for a piece of the pie.
It'll be a great ride and very rewarding to watch. :-)
Good news today, but once again a few are getting carried away with ridiculous forecasts. I’d be happy to reach 2.8 for now, then I’d let 50% ride to whatever it can get to.
Yes maybe 8p underwritten value but with proof of concept that they can deliver a production site in the weald and have licence all over the place sentiment and future expectation will send this far north of 8p, 10p, 20p 30p etc..... add on the IoW and we're closer to three figures and FTSE350 listing in 2020. GLA