Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi Nige
I can't see house builders building for HA it involves tenders, planning, contracts and low margins. Only way would be selling all or part of sites probably at knock down prices.
Vistry certainly had a master stroke getting the Galliford division that deals with HA.
ATB:))
Hi Bamps
I'm sure if tw T/o decreasing they would start building for HA's, used to build Council houses years ago.
CMO said "some" restrictions "could" last for 6 mnths - nobody really knows and media jumped on that, cos better news.
There could be a slump in sales and all kids live at home another year, and immigration stops, but I doubt it. At he end of the day Sales only delayed, Govt help for companies in difficulty, even help for self employed tradesmen.
No doubt it will affect the Balance Sheet, but that applies to almost all companies, only builders less cos the demand will actually be increasing.
The Sp has almost halved, so Imho more than built into the price.
BoL
Hi Nige
There's a lot of companies specialising building for HA, it's not something private housebuilders do except Vistry who now have Gallifords division. My lads company has just won contracts with HA before the virus.
The only thing that housebuilders may do is sale all or part of a site to HA but might not go well with buyers.
This crisis is not going to be a quick process, I do like your optimism but can't see it happening. The chief medical officer said today she could see restrictions remaining in some form for 6 months which will wipe out this years selling season or be very patchy
A pent up demand may happen in the autumn in my opinion.
ATB:))
Hi Nige,
Nothing worries the pessimist like the optimist who says there's nothing to worry about.
BoL
Hi Ben
It's a competitive business and no doubt the Builders will get away with what they can, but I don't think there will be a significant drop in demand, so shouldn't make much difference.
Demand ultimately depends on kids leaving home and immigrants, who might not buy new houses but as people in the mortgage chain upgrade / downsize, nothing can happen until somebody buys a new house. My little daughter is going to move (not to a new house) but the house she buys means the owners have to buy somewhere else and as I said this chain cannot be broken until someone buys a new house.
Hi Bamps and troubles
No idea what draconian measures the Govt takes, but they must be seen to do something - council houses or HA's. Again who is going to build them? 1981 recession caused by a big increase in interest rates (causing Builders slump). Not like 2008 either cos banks still happy to lend. This is a unique situation, and since I hope it won't last too long, should not have as much affect as 1981 or 2008. Big Builders have far more cash, and even the small ones with loads of debt cannot be allowed to fail by Govt, cos they caused the problem.
So I remain a worried optimist.
BoL
Hi Ben,
Difficult to assess fully what draconian measures and laws will be brought forward by this Govt on the back of this epidemic.
Some may be necessary, but how long will they last and will all be removed especially now we've left the EU and will civil, human and employment rights etc.. be affected adversely in the longer term which are not necessarily for the ' common good '.
Freedom is not a gift received from the State or leader but a possession to be won everyday by the effort of each and the union of all.
Hi Ben
There will be a boom in infrastructure work and indeed housing association work (which is where most of the shortage in housing is) but the private sector will be a long haul back as what happened after the 1981 recession. I remember the 3 months following the 1981 recession Bryant sold 4 houses, that recession resembles this one more than the 2008 one. Only the construction side kept Bryant going.
I think you're right in firms will be looking for better margins to replenish the cash piles, so expecting sub contractors taking a hit.
If the sub contractors though swap to housing association work this could eventually force prices upwards for private housing. As you said there will probably be shortfall of labour.
Time will tell
ATB:))
Hi All
Cdl the way to look at it , Nig is right in a way the shortage of houses will be increasing. The longer it goes on the more people will leave the industry.
The more chance of the government stepping in and building council houses.
So could be a mini boom.
Saying that I can still see the house builders trying it on and trying to decrease the rates, we must stay strong and say no ! Maybe we can ask Troubles if he knows a good union leader:))
Hi Ben hope not,laid off on Tuesday on David Wilson site,started on a smaller company on Wednesday big development for over 55s,prices look good but all fiddly panels and pillars think they can’t afford to shut or they would probably go bust,hope sites start up again soon my mates top bloke at Wilmot Dixon and they have no plans to close but I wouldn’t be surprised if the government shut them all down!