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Hi Wbernard,
Posted this previously which simply shows factors affecting supply and demand of housing :
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/15390/housing/factors-affecting-supply-and-demand-of-housing/
Note the projections for population and households in England to 2041.
The terms seem to be used interchangeably, I am not sure if there is any official definition making a distinction between the two.
The fertility/replacement rate are important but think the shape of the population distribution is also an important factor as different age groups will have different income levels and different inclinations to move house. This data is all out there but would take a bit of work to assess.
Hi Wberrnard,
This chart seems to illustrate the point you are making :
https://www.economicvoice.com/does-this-population-data-shock-you/
Hi Wbernard,
Do you have any figures to illustrate the difference between fertility and replacement rate ?
I'm not sure whether the difference is that significant but may be wrong.
ATB
They are below replacement though. Immigration is needed to prop up house prices, pensions, staff the NHS...
It is a national disgrace, though the government have under invested in the NHS for a number of years, in particular in capital investment. Our per capita levels of expensive medical equipment is shockingly low compared to comparable nations
There does not appear to have been a significant drop in fertility rate since 1980 as far as I'm aware and appears to have increased 2000-2010 with only a 0.48% decline in 2019 from 2018.
There may well be an increase as a result of lockdown measures.
Timescales are difficult to predict in terms of this 'new' virus but it appears that an ever decreasing series of waves might be expected as measures are eased and tightened, as is necessary. It's all a matter of timing (bit like day trading) and regular testing will be crucial - something sadly lacking along with efficient PPE - IMO, a national disgrace.
Fertility rate is below replacement rate has been for a number of years.
It is difficult to determine cash flow in first few months as land purchases may not be uniform across the year and neither will be sales or construction costs.
Land value is all in there, it will either be in assets in its own line or in inventory.
It looks like Europe is flattening the curve which the markets like but that is with total lockdown. With out knowing the proportion of the population that has been infected hard to know how long this will run. My guess is they are waiting on China to see how infections climb after reversal of lockdown but as China's data is unreliable, I think it won't be until a western country relaxes lockdown until we know how this goes. Or a reliable antibody test and mass testing is available.
Hi Wbernard
I agree can't add Divi to Cash, but can add almost 1/4 of profits for this year = about 150Mn = 780 Mn Cash assuming no more sales this year. I find it hard to believe the population of this country would be decreasing if not for immigration, and this will not be stopped (no doubt reduced). I read somewhere the shortage would last 15 more years so not worried about supply / demand imbalance.
Where is the land Bank valued in the accounts? It cannot be at full value cos total assets would be far more than they are. I know accounting policy was changed a few years ago to decrease the asset in case land prices collapse in the slumps, caused by increase in Interest rates, which also caused the recessions, but the recession did not cause the slumps. This theory will now be tested, cos of probable recession and record low interest rates, but has not austerity already proved that?
This does not include selling any of the land bank nor laying off staff so Govt pays 80%, tw 20%, decreasing cost per year to 34 Mn, so I still think tw could shut up shop for 10 years, or until a recovery in House prices. As long as supply is behind demand I don't even think there will be much of a decrease in prices, regardless of a recession. Since no houses are being built now, the shortage must be increasing.
So what sectors are better prepared for a recession than Builders?
Hi Tom
Many Countries new cases are decreasing, particularly the worst affected. We might not have reached the peak yet, but I think we cannot be far off it. Then hopefully the number of new cases and deaths will start decreasing.
One thing is for sure, the World must pool resources and figure out the best response.
BoL
It is net assets which are relevant, not assets, that is 3.3bn, the same or slightly below market cap.
Dividends can't be added to the cash balance, they come from the cash figure. Their cash is what the cash is in the financial accounts.
But the natural replacement rate, ie marriages and births is less than deaths. Without immigration more houses will be bring vacated that required.