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Has anyone with a Hargreaves Lansdowne account been credited?
Credited to my account today at a rate of 29.86p per share. Slightly better than I was expecting. Full details are on the website.
So, have people's shares in TSL been automatically sold and funds will appear in nominee accounts any day now? Is there anything holders need to do? What was the final actual SP we will receive per share? Thx
Rotten timing for sale. At the current SQ. price, I calculate 28.8p. Very disappointing final outcome.
$69.17 x 618,750 shares = $42.8m = £35.1m
Market Cap of TSL at close was £30.7m so a 14.27% uplift (35.1/30.7) on a 28.5p share price = 32.57p per share that you hold.
Not a great outcome but it could have been worse. Chair Powell's interview caused SQ. to bounce earlier this week. It's a slightly over break even for me as I averaged down earlier this year.
GLA
Warno, you’re right that predicting the Ukraine crisis was beyond ST’s control but the tech was objectively overvalued - like yourself I was taking 50%+ off the table on stocks like this one in late 2021
Don't think Simon Thompson has any fault. Price has collapsed due to value of tech/fintech companies. If anyone had followed his first tips then they would be have had 3 baggers. I was 147% up on my holding at one point. Sold half and I am down 10% on the remainer. Bad decision making by me as an investor and thinking that buy now pay later firms would grow further before the Ukraine situation. Question is whether to invest proceeds into Block. In the current climate, I'm planning to hold the cash.
Over 90% shall - and did vote for the scheme .
It seems likely that we will see about 33.4p per share on around 7th December. Taking into account dividends I’m just above break even and commiserations to others who were led to this share by Simon Thompson . Least we can close the chapter
So who's gonna vote in favour or against the scheme? I'm still undecided...
Pre-market SQ. price now $61.50 after analyst beating figures. Equivalent to c. 31.6p per TSL share by my calculations. Hopefully now with some wind in the sails, a decent time to top up.
There is an implied threat of delisting the company if shareholders do not vote the way management want.
Eyewatering loss. But the rationale remains the same.
TSL confirm it makes no financial sense to keep TSL running (will lead to further shareholder value destruction).
The 15% discount to the conversion price in November remains the same. i.e. TSL's drop 36.5p to 30p corresponds perfectly to SQ's $85.94 -> $69 price. This is interesting because TSL previously wasn't correlating.
i.e. the market has cottoned on. So the question now is do you buy TSL and get a 15% return in November 2022 but run the risk that shareholders are the turkeys that do vote for Christmas - i.e. do vote against the scheme to shut down TSL and convert shares to cash at a 0.5% discount to SQ's price in November. The 2nd risk to consider is SQ drops lower than $69 in the next 6 weeks. Analyst consensus is that SQ offers upside, and is both profitable and cash generative albeit at a low level.
GLA
Interestingly even after the dust has settled, the special dividends given this still trades at a 2.9p a share discount to the current buy price (38p) and a 5.9p discount to the current offer price.
This means if the winding up vote goes through (see my earlier note it's madness to keep a £2m/year admin cost of a Plc going after October when it's only asset/operation are Block shares.... you lose about 5% of your holding per year while you wait!), there's a 14.4% return in 3 months to today's price plus (or minus) and movement from Square's market price (currently $85.94)
GLA
Too much short-termism in a lot of the comments on here from people who bought in on the lows after the directors shafted the existing holders with a derisory deal woefully undervaluing TSL and it's potential. This initially looked good value when ST at Investors Chronicle tipped it up around the 70/75p mark and progressed to around £1.10. Soon after the sp tumbled following a very questionable and surprisingly low-ball priced deal announcement and here we find ourselves....
Personally I think we should see how this progresses now the bottom has been hit. The directors owe the shareholders that backed them more than this. They're suggesting take the cash (for many a 50%+ loss on their investment) and just invest the funds in Block at market price if you're still keen on being directly exposed. A decent discount on Block shares would be more appealing and fair if that were possible. Personally I'll be rejecting the offer and confidently looking to get nearer to my 70p average in a few months, like many
If Scaramucci is correct then SQ will do well in the coming months. If Bitcoin returns to $40k the unrealised gain on its BTC assets grows from $40m to $170m. $170m is only equal to 4% of SQ. market cap at today's $79 price but I doubt we would see a $79 price in a $40k Bitcoin world.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-has-already-bottomed-has-a-fair-value-of-40-000-says-anthony-scaramucci-11659465805?mod=dist_amp_social&link=sfmw_tw&redirect=amp
Worth being aware the Q2 2022 results for SQ come out this Thursday evening (4th Aug).
This will be the last quarter before the vote for the scheme (in Oct).
Consensus forecast Q2 earnings per share are 16c.
Last quarter earnings were forecast 20c and actual 18c.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/08/01/thinksmart-shareholders-should-think-twice/
Thompson has spoken. Hold out says the Tipster - reject the scheme.
Before I give my view on this advice. First I've been pondering the return on TSL. This evening's price puts TSL holding in Block worth 37.6p (618750 shares * $77.76 block price/1.2 FX rate)/106.59m shares. Warrants dilution potentially reduces this to around 36p (which ST quotes in his article).
I would remind shareholders of our recent special dividend June 22 and the dividend from December 2021 worth a further $0.0939 = 7.8p. That puts us at 36.2+7.8 = 44p equivalent return.
My reply to ST's advice is if you want to hold Block, vote for the motion receive your proceeds and reinvest them in SQ. It costs a few pounds to do so and if you are as bullish as ST now appears to be, then good luck. I may take this route too because I see a lot of opportunity in SQ. If I hold SQ. shares I can hold them or sell them in the future - I can't do that now because they are locked inside TSL shares.
**Importantly** to keep the TSL Plc running, costs a million or more a year (assuming they reduce costs). Why prolong these costs? The call centre income is finalising so all we will do if we vote against the scheme is reduce our holding of Block squares to pay ongoing corporate costs. Moreover, if we reject the scheme what's stopping this reverting to a 40% discount like before?? Rejecting the scheme is certain to drop the price of TSL.
So why did ST advise to reject the scheme?
Is ST hoping that time will revert this back up to a point where he can point to it as a success? He can't now, and a number of people bemoan the fact they listened to his tip here. Well, Simon Thompson if you're thinking twice then I'm thinking thrice and and I *WILL* be voting for the scheme and would encourage everyone else to do so for all the reasons outlined above......
GLA...... and Think Smart :)
Thanks Agricore - and yes I have some TSL, unfortunately I have to admit at an average price of 65p - I thought the discount as was then would offer some cushion, although I am perhaps more unhappy at the Directors decisions than ST's poor call.
Fortunately it is only a small holding that I bought so I will probably cross fingers and wait - hoping for the 'littler loss'....!
That's how I'm viewing it also. I have TSL in two accounts at an average of 30p in one and and average of 41p in the other .... I'm hoping for at least 15% - 30% gain on the one pot and minimum 10% loss / hopefully breakeven or even slight profit on the other and then I'm out. Big lesson learned on not taking profits when this approached £1 and getting swayed by ST etc etc to hold ....
CJ, assuming you own TSL, the "gamble" as you put it (the calculation is how I would put it) is will Block fall more than the 15% discount between now the enactment of the scheme in the Autumn? (*WHEN THE DISCOUNT TO BLOCK WILL DISAPPEAR*)
Given that a scheme at today's values would give approx 34.5p per TSL share. That would be the break even between selling at 30p today and getting 30p in the Autumn if Block falls 15.5% from its current price.
If you think it will fall be more than 15.5%, then sell today and be done with it.
If you instead consider that Block holds unrealised profits on its crypto (held at $20k, bitcoin is currently $24k), the turbulence in crypto is beneficial to block (they earn on trades), it has a positive outlook, and the consensus view is almost unanimously that its 12 month price level is far higher than here then stay the course and earn 15%-30% (in my calculation) for sitting on TSL for a few months more.
In other words barring some serious down move in the market, the odds are skewed in your favour i.e. downside risk is low, and the upside prospect is reasonable.
If you bought it to TSL at 90p+ thanks to Simon Thompson etc and are set to make a loss then the lens you should be looking at is do I make a big loss or a little loss? But if, like me, you thought the prior price of 21.5p was far too cheap (see my previous posts about the 40%+ discount to NAV) then you shouldn't be sitting on a loss now anyway :)
GLA
Yes, it was based on Blocks current price of about $74 - so could go either way,
but TSL was always at a discount.
To my mind a complete gamble on what Blocks price will do - just consider
Up 195% over 5 yrs / down 70% over a year / down 40% over 6 mths / up 16% over 1 month....over the next 3 or 4 months ?!?
Yes that was my take.
Unless I'm missing something, I think the scheme price of 36p was hypothetical as the actual proceeds depend on what the Block price/ FX rate will be when the scheme is implemented in October or November
Can someone explain to me why people who are averaging over 40p on this share (like myself\) , why isn't it a good idea to be buying here to get near the scheme price?
Congratulations to anyone who persisted in holding here and ignored the waffle. As I said, leaving aside the fortunes of Block that there *was* (past tense) a 39% discount to Block.
There's still a 8% discount on buying further shares as I calculate at today's Block price each TSL share is 35.5p..... or more if you feel Block's shares will recover to the average in the next 4 months. Which could add a further 20%.
>>> (4) From 1 February 2022 to 25 July 2022, ThinkSmart's share price has averaged 30.05 pence per share (based on daily closing price). Over the same period, the Block share price has averaged US$96.73 per share which, based on an average exchange rate of 1.2836 USD: 1 GBP with ThinkSmart owning 618,750 shares in Block and having 106,587,814 shares in issue, equates to 43.75 pence per ThinkSmart share.