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PS ; thinking I'd better post something positive towards being less disliked here.
FM's are very samsey - never get fired for doing what the other guys do etc - and so their money 'herds' - aka clustering - .. it herds out, which we're witnessing now imho.. and it herds back in at some stage, hopefully .. so if one or two of them of them are thinking of getting back into an AIM sector for eg it gets discussed with peers and if it is to happen it happens widely.. so before you know it there can be a big inflow.. when the worm it's often a meaningful turn.. so there's always hope of a big turnaround when one eventually comes.. and the lower the s/p's in this sector go on average the more likely such an inflow becomes etc.. and in the interim there's always low ball offers at 50% premium too.. so there's always hope.. granted it can be the hope that kills you :-)
Ps; markets can remain irrational longer than plenty of investors remain liquid too..etc.. Keynes
When you say you don't think II money is leaving the sector Luckcounts, I offer back to you that it often occurs in a lot more subtle ways than short term selling of their stakes. eg Michinoko wanted out of the sector and was likely a direct contributor to the low ball Amerisur offer being recommended by the board ( and likely accepted by enough shareholders in the end ) Michinoko could not sell down when Amerisur s/p was already in deep decline pre M&P bid as it could easily have crashed the s/p even massively further again.
Generally, for II's to get out of these AIM oilers is extremely hard as there's so little liquidity that any sort of even semi meaningful sells on the open market would completely decimate already awful s/p's.. so they can small drip feed sell ongoingly at very most, with the effect of bringing down the s/p's incrementally all the while, thus more and more encouraging a 'low ball offer' - that will still be at a half decent premium to recent history s/p chart - and let it be known to the brokers/bankers quietly that they are open to a bid from a relevant industry player for co x that will still represent compelling value to that bidder. It's their only real way out without their investments getting completely obliterated. And when their out many won't be back in the sector with the proceeds or will be back with a proportion of proceeds only, thus II money leaving the sector.
In the old days when large block II sellers wanted out there was another II in the wings who would take up the s/p at a reasonable discount but not a disastrous one on a scheme of things. There are fewer and fewer II's wanting involvement even at reasonable discounts to already bombed out s/p's now and so more and more low ball company sales are the only way out for existing II's getting out without complete capitulation of their Investment in the current environment. imho
fine posting luck counts.. plenty of valid points therein..
a few back:
plenty of reserves here offshore which is generally plenty more expensive to develop than onshore and so worth less
government not industry friendly here eg SPT
a tired and fragmented small player scene here versus large dynamic hungry to acquire players in for eg Columbia
management here have a lot to do still to prove themselves to actually be good versus genuinely top industry management imho
the current s/p has a direct/large impact on any bid that might be received eg 8.5p to 14p here versus 10p to 19p with Amerisur for eg
yes but the difference is Amerisur is for sale and it had a valuable pipeline.
As cynical as playing this game more and more makes me, I'll still admit to being shocked that this has come off from 10p to 8.5p very recently.
OPEC and friends delivered well on output cuts recently and PoO is up recently off the back and yet look at this s/p ( and plenty of other AIM O&G'ers too in fairness.. that's the real killer for me , even when poo goes up these s/p's often don't or if they do it's far from proportionally up and sometimes its down in rising poo even .. yet when poo goes down they generally fall overly proportionally.. a very frightening combination that, imho)
The primary underlying driver is II money continuing to slowly but surely leave the sector imho... and I would say that situation has gotten worse instead of better in 2019. And It's plenty to do with macro factors, the green lobby/ bearish poo and a big lack of trust in AIM O&G execs generally to deliver what they say they will. There is merit in all these viewpoints imho.
The first thing management here can do is deliver on y/e exit rate targets. Their delivery this year has been poor in the first 9 months imho, so here's hoping for that to change this quarter. Then they need to bat very clever with their cash in bank.. and that's either a merger or acquisition or production grow out that is clearly very quickly bottom line accreditive. Or better again, given the way the market doesn't care much about the afore is good size share buyback or dividend alongside a solid but not significant -eg 10% - production grow out in 2020 that is visibly easily/inexpensively repeatable in 2021 too
PS: If someone wants to buy Trin.l for 14p + then fine by me as for the s/p to get back to that level in 2020 on its own might well altogether- ie macro and micro factors - be a big/very big ask imho.
How can this continue to drift down when it’s making a profit? At what point will the price be less than cash
Believe the oil sector isknackerd as an investment we still need oil but the sentiment is poor
Can’t believe how all the oil companies are Dow I’m in SQZabd there’s another one that has just drifted down