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it would be interesting to know if others have reduced there shorts and what %
It's frustrating watching the shorters manipulate the SP lower.
Unless there's big news imminent, then I can see it being dragged down further.
The shorters are slowly reducing their positions, but undoubtedly want more misery.
But saying all that, I'm not giving up on TLW.....I firmly believe this will multi-bag past £1
Whilst this is being controlled, my only solution is attempt to trade the daily swings, but recently even this has less fluctuation, and consequently more difficult to accomplish.
A few extra quid a day is better than nowt! (3 positive trades and the lowest buy in price of the day)
Just to clarify, I'm a long term holder in TLW in my Sipp account, and I'm slowly increasing my funds in my trading and ISA accounts by trading. (doing this until the majority of shorters have **cked off. Then I'm all in back to £1)
Also got my eye on a few other stocks, but TLW is where I see my largest gains (eventually)....AML not doing bad for me, up 90% :-)
GLA whatever your trading/investing strategies
'one Suriname farm-down with Total subsidising all our costs does not a summer make', but it would help?
Yes I agree. TLW is pregnant with possibilities. The tipping point is not far away as the pressure builds something will fold. Not me though. I would do it myself except I am retired hoping to live off the gains..
'You're probably right, but it just doesn't make sense to delay it by a whole month (1/3 into Q3)...'
It makes sense if you consider the leadership transition to the new CEO. Dorothy is ultra conservative and as I said before, it should not be ignored she is non exec on the BoE. She will not commit strategic objectives (ethics etc) unless she is 100% certain. That approach drives deep into the organisation but the operational performance is bottom up and I would think the Q2 update is a confirmation of the strategy that will carry through to £2+ integrated with the new CEO and his vision etc.
'one Suriname farm-down with Total subsidising all our costs does not a summer make', but it would help?
Yes, it's a bid for £2.50 a share...
Q2 Trading Update*
You're probably right, but it just doesn't make sense to delay it by a whole month (1/3 into Q3)...
They will wish the new CEO to give the operational update
He starts 1st July
Ive topped up today
This will rocket imo
Stability is sometimes good for the share, definitely better than a pump and dump imo.
Currently, due to the stability, Tullow is neither oversold, not overbought!
Anyways, just a thought on my previous post regarding June activities:
In the past 3+ years, Tullow have always provided Q3 trading update at the end of June, with the Half year Results in July.
This year, according to Tullow's financial calendar, the Q3 trading update is scheduled for end of July, and Half year results scheduled for September.
I wonder if there is a reason for this delay? Or could it be that these dates are a typo and that we should be expecting Q3 Trading Update in June?
Any thoughts?
I haven't given up and topped up again today. GLA
Thanks slift, agree there are a 'nest of things'.
I wonder if the 8%+ short interest (>0.5% declared) is dominated by debt interests pending the rerate, that might explain the SP slow burn and braking effect until Uganda cash is in the bank or Kenya deal announced. As you said earlier, the rerate may require confirmation of Q2 performance to plan. If all those boxes are ticked, the SP should move to a new range, 30's at least imo.
So far the management team have delivered on their objectives but as the saying goes, 'one Uganda deal does not a summer make'
Yep I've given up also.... Sold and invested elsewhere for now.
Will be back when the share price wakes up...!
Nice summary Slift. TLW is a momentum share and there is a lack of interest here atm, but it won't take much for it to build a head a steam, especially if PI's are looking to reinvested profits made elsewhere. It is frustrating. I made a personal call that TLW would track the POO upwards, but it stagnated. Based on experience when a SP tracks in the way that it has for the last month it tends to reveal off book action from those with deep pockets. Now that could be shorters reducing or others offloading only time will tell. I think we'll have to wait until July onwards for any real action. They'll want to give the new CEO lots of positive news flow to demonstrate closure on the recent s*itshow and a new narrative of a fresh approach/bright future etc. The current market is nuts. You only have to look at French Connection today. A prime candidate to go bust, but up 35% for no particular reason since mid morning. Same as TUI, was that worth a 60% rerate in a couple of days?
In my opinion, the current catalysts for the rises/falls are:
June for Tullow:
- Possible information regarding sale of stake in Kenya and the potential buyers
- Possible information regarding farm-down of exploration assets
- Possible re-rate of Tullow's corporate credit facility
- Ntomme-9 production well to come on stream (Could move production guidance upwards)
- Possible further updates on Uganda sale (Uganda Gov + URA entering tax agreement, approval from the minister of energy in Uganda, Shareholder approval)
- General market influences (FTSE, economic figures, stimilus, employment)
June for Oil:
- OPEC meeting 9th June
- Lockdowns easing more (more shops are to be opened)
- Airlines scheduling flights from mid June
- Possible easing of India's lockdown
- Potential second wave
- Storage issues (API reported +8m in inventory build)
- China/US tensions regarding Hong Kong
A lot of these points and more could be speculated by the market to price in early.
All IMO and GLA.
The stabilised price for the last month, the world coming back out of lockdown even if its slowly, the demand for oil again. Don’t forget the world uses 100million barrels of oil per day just to keep everything going pre covid19. So I’m assuming we will slowly rise with oil being in demand again for sure?
Imo of course though.
Out of interest Investor, what do you see as the catalyst to push this share north currently?
Surely we are ready for a breakout from the current price... held around this for over a month now. So frustrating as I’ve literally shot everything in here now I’ve got just shy of 300k shares. Waiting for a rise to pull some back out to trade with elsewhere. Surely only a matter of time before we go north
Or oil significantly recovers to a level well above our break even
Agreed its trading very weirdly. I think until we manage to sell more assets or raise cash we are going to be stuck here.
Trying to understand what’s going on with the sp here.
How on earth can we still be at the sane level as when poo was sub 20?
Hopefully they farm out or get shot of Kenya plus farm out Guyana. Just left these in the isa and will come back when asset sales are done