The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
lets hope tullow manages to develop a good field development plan, sell 2/3 of their stake plus a carry on the rest or sell it off completely. Tlw just cant spend the capex required to develop such a landlocked discovery (same like uganda) in such an unstable corrupt country. many bumps in the road will occur... Better get a carry for sth to have in 3-4 years but not to have to spend capex on or completely opt out and get 300-400 Mio for it instead of getting problems and bills...
I don't dispute that one scenario is that TLW may be sold, but in terms of recent price action it is mirroring the market. Almost all mid range oilers followed a strong rally from the start of Feb until the middle of March, when the rally broke, and has retraced. At the start of Feb TLW was at .24p, so it is still well up. Personally I think the market got ahead of itself and the current SP is more realistic. If the pandemic recedes over the summer then POO will rise and you could see it at $75. If that is so there is no reason why TLW can't return to 60p - 80p. The elephant in the room is refinance. This is either going to be excellent or a disaster for PI's, PMO was a salutary lesson. TLW has chosen to become a producer rather than an explorer. This is realistic. Oil is in managed decline and the new decade will probably be the last hurrah. The world will always need oil, but much less over the next 100 years than has been used over the last 100. To that end exploration, particularly of inaccessible or inhospitable locations will become much less attractive. Better to get in and get as much cash now from core assets than waste money on licenses or assets that are becoming problematic. Keep it simple.
Can't see any logical reason to sell Jubilee/Ten unless you were shutting up shop. What benefit is there in eliminating all debt? The majority of companies operate with a certain level of debt - Tlw think 1-1.5bln is about right. Ghana is the cash cow that can sustain some level of exploration into the future and provide profit. That's what the strategy is based on. The idea that the BOD were somehow overly cautious by not selling Ghana is a joke.
It's well documented that we are currently reworking the figures on Kenya with the Kenyans frustration at lack of progress resulting in a timeframe ultimatum of December.
We have been involved there since 2010 which is ample time to have made possitive strides with not many taken.
With a rns anticipated I'm beginning to wonder to what ends we have been working.
Could it be we were planning on exiting and covid/oil price collapse threw a spanner in the works or are we there for the long term development and production ?
GLA.
A prime example was when the banks started selling their buildings, in early 2000, and leasing them back. That when i jumped out of AIBK at a loss.
I think this strategy, if correct is reffered to as "Harvesting Mode". Sell off what you can without increase in spend and get a buyer for what left.
PANG,
I have been thinking similar. No9 on this link could be the beginning og getting the pieces into place.
https://www.griproom.com/fun/10-signs-your-company-is-about-to-be-acquired
Have done a bit more light reading research, after reading Phoenix article and have come to the conclusion that the BOD have hidden agenda of sale of company. Not in short term, more like late 2022 early 2023. At that stage Jubilee and Ten should have higher output, Suriname will have been developed by larger players so TWO licences will be sellable. ( Thats dependent on Frances 2040 rules on development in the area ease). At present debt levels do not see TWO buying any licences for future development, so they are heading to be a producer only, so become attractive as a take over.
Pure speculative view without any finacial basis
The idea of selling Jubilee and TEN has been mentioned before. It's a very interesting proposition, but would they really fetch the sale prices we need. Selling the crown jewels could be viable - if we find proven recoverable resources elsewhere.
There is an interesting article in this weeks Phoenix Magazine (Ireland). The writer proposes that the BOD have taken the safe option in all its decisions. The article proposes that they should have sold off the Jubilee and Ten Fields which should realise enough money to pay all debts. TWO could then return to its roots as a Exploration and Development company.
I am not well enough informed to either agree or disagree as TWO is only one of my Punt investments so i do not do much research on it